Exnavyew's Account Talk

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The I-Fund did well in Dec/2021. Beats me why. Any ideas anyone?

123021s.gif
 
It wasn't the dollar since that is up for the the month. Maybe the International large caps did well in sympathy with the U.S. large caps?
 
Since 2004, for whatever reason the I fund has been the best fund for the month of December by a pretty good margin. So it's no surprise, just seasonality.
For the month of January, the S fund has been the best fund since 2004, and the I fund does terribly, in fact it has a negative return overall in January for the period from 2004-20.
 
Tsunami said:
Since 2004, for whatever reason the I fund has been the best fund for the month of December by a pretty good margin. So it's no surprise, just seasonality.
For the month of January, the S fund has been the best fund since 2004, and the I fund does terribly, in fact it has a negative return overall in January for the period from 2004-20.
Click to expand...

Interesting. Is this info on the TSP website or elsewhere? Thanks.
 
Here are the monthly winning fund counts from 2001 to 2021 ordered from most wins to least.


[TD="align: left"]Jan[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]8S[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]8F[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2G[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2I[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]1C[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Feb[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]8S[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]4I[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]4G[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]3F[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2C[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Mar[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]9S[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]5C[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]3F[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2I[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2G[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Apr[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]10I[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]4S[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]3C[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]3F[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]1G[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]May[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]11S[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]4F[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]4I[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]1C[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]1G[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Jun[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]9S[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]5G[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]3F[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]3I[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]1C[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Jul[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]6F[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]6S[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]4C[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]3I[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2G[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Aug[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]7F[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]7S[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]3I[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2G[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2C[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Sep[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]8I[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]4F[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]4S[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]4G[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]1C[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Oct[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]7S[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]5C[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]4I[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]4G[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]1F[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Nov[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]11S[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]6C[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2F[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]1G[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]1I[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Dec[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]11I[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]5S[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2G[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2F[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]1C[/TD]
As you can see the I Fund wins in December over half the time while the S Fund takes January about 40% of the time.
 
Cactus said:
Here are the monthly winning fund counts from 2001 to 2021 ordered from most wins to least.


[TD="align: left"]Jan[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]8S[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]8F[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2G[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2I[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]1C[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Feb[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]8S[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]4I[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]4G[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]3F[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2C[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Mar[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]9S[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]5C[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]3F[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2I[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2G[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Apr[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]10I[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]4S[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]3C[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]3F[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]1G[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]May[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]11S[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]4F[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]4I[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]1C[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]1G[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Jun[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]9S[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]5G[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]3F[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]3I[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]1C[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Jul[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]6F[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]6S[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]4C[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]3I[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2G[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Aug[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]7F[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]7S[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]3I[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2G[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2C[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Sep[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]8I[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]4F[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]4S[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]4G[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]1C[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Oct[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]7S[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]5C[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]4I[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]4G[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]1F[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Nov[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]11S[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]6C[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2F[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]1G[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]1I[/TD]

[TD="align: left"]Dec[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]11I[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]5S[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2G[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2F[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]1C[/TD]
As you can see the I Fund wins in December over half the time while the S Fund takes January about 40% of the time.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the info!!! :D
 
mmk119 said:
Time to buy? i'm thinking not yet. but, maybe not far off...
Click to expand...

Looks like S fund rolling over and taking C fund with it. Not looking good there but on the lili pad…pretty calm here. Will need a day or two to see how this shakes out. May check out g fund as a safe haven to grab a few up ticks. Hmmm…F down again today so this may just be a bit of turbulence in an overall fast moving stream. Will stay put and hope for F fund reversal
 
Tsunami said:
Since 2004, for whatever reason the I fund has been the best fund for the month of December by a pretty good margin. So it's no surprise, just seasonality.
For the month of January, the S fund has been the best fund since 2004, and the I fund does terribly, in fact it has a negative return overall in January for the period from 2004-20.
Click to expand...

This is great info, thank you. And would have been even better if I knew it a month ago :laugh:
 
Russell 2000 is currently up about 0.80% so why is SRTY (which shorts the Russell 2000 X 3) UP about 1.70%? What am I missing?
Traders anticipating a change of direction for the Russell 2000?
 
exnavyew said:
Sure....eezee-peezee.:rolleyes:

A dazzling display of 20-20 hindsight.

How you could have turned $1,000 into $1.3 trillion by perfectly trading the S&P 500 in 2021

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lvJzst9B88o
Click to expand...

Even if you knew ahead of time which way the market was gonna go, you can't time the market with a trillion dollars. Volume can't support trades that big. You will end up pushing prices around with your buys and sells, and it will take you days to fully enter or exit a position. You'd probably end up losing money because you are creating a different market when you make moves that big.
 
bmneveu said:
Even if you knew ahead of time which way the market was gonna go, you can't time the market with a trillion dollars. Volume can't support trades that big. You will end up pushing prices around with your buys and sells, and it will take you days to fully enter or exit a position. You'd probably end up losing money because you are creating a different market when you make moves that big.
Click to expand...


In other words, a good problem to have! :laugh:
 
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