12/31/12
Investors ran for the exits prior to the close on Friday as the fiscal cliff deadline gets closer and closer. The lost 158-points on the day.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 152"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.68%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.23%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The Futures did not stop falling after Friday's market close so we'll be going into today (Monday) with some fair value (about 89 Dow points) to make up. For those of you reading this before the market opens on Monday - that basically means you can subtract about 89-points from the overnight Dow futures quotes to get a better idea of where the Dow will open, so the Dow futures would have to +90 for us to see a positive open. Not a great position to be in to start the trading day.
The S&P 500 fell to near 1400 on both Thursday and Friday, and that area could be a support level if the rising parallel channel holds. We see this often where a parallel channel breaks (blue line) only to see a lower parallel line hold. That's what the bulls will be hanging their hats on this week.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I didn't mark it on the above chart, but I recall saying that if the inverted head and shoulders pattern we had been watching, decided to test the middle of the head, we could see a move to the 200-day EMA. Now that the breakout of the inverted head and shoulders pattern failed, the test of the head could be a reasonable expectation. Remember this chart?...
That would assume a break of the red parallel trading channel mentioned above, however. Lots of "what if's".
I talked a few weeks ago about how the pattern we saw last spring / summer is similar to the current S&P pattern. The formation is continuing and the short-term swings we saw during the June to August uptrend are potentially playing out the same way as we end 2012.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Like last July / August, the S&P 500 remains above the 200-day EMA, while it bounces above and below the 20 and 50-day EMAs. The parallel channel held back then so if this comparison is going to continue, that 1400 level really needs to hold.
Some of the indicators are leaning toward being oversold, and our Sentiment Survey showed our readers are leaning toward being overly bearish, so that gives the market a tilt to the bullish side for this week, but of course we, and the markets, are at the mercy of the folks in Washington right now.
I'm sure they're not all like this, but do you ever get the feeling that this incompetence in Washington is an intentional effort to keep the spotlight on them for as long as possible? They have had more than a year to do something and they are waiting until the last minute again. They talk about each other like junior high school kids in a reality show, rather than act like leaders who need to make a deal. They'll probably pass some short-term band-aid like deal this week and we'll all go through this again in a couple of months. Then they'll be back in the spotlight, on the Sunday news shows again, etc. Sigh.
Here is the New Years Day holiday chart again. Today is a good day historically, but we all know the deal why things may be different this year.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
I want to also mention one more time that the capital gains selling pressure, sellers looking to lock in the lower capital gains tax rate, ends today. That "could" keep the selling pressure on another day, but it could also trigger a big rally in January once the sellers stop selling. That's what happened in January 1987, but then again we weren't looking over a cliff back then.
Per the www.tsp.gov website: "Some financial markets will be closed on Tuesday, January 1st in observance of the New Year's Day holiday. The Thrift Savings Plan will also be closed. Transactions that would have been processed Tuesday night (January 1st) will be processed Wednesday night (January 2nd), at Wednesday's closing share prices."
Administrative Note: It's that time of year again. We will be rolling over the 2012 AutoTracker accounts into 2013 so if you don't already have an account on the AutoTracker and wish to be on it in 2013, now would be a good time to get started. You do need to have a Forum account to get on the AutoTracker. For more information on how to get started, click here. (If you have an active AutoTracker account, you do not need to join again.)
Thanks for reading! Have a happy, healthy, and prosperous New Year! We'll see you on Wednesday.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Investors ran for the exits prior to the close on Friday as the fiscal cliff deadline gets closer and closer. The lost 158-points on the day.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 152"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.68%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.23%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The Futures did not stop falling after Friday's market close so we'll be going into today (Monday) with some fair value (about 89 Dow points) to make up. For those of you reading this before the market opens on Monday - that basically means you can subtract about 89-points from the overnight Dow futures quotes to get a better idea of where the Dow will open, so the Dow futures would have to +90 for us to see a positive open. Not a great position to be in to start the trading day.
The S&P 500 fell to near 1400 on both Thursday and Friday, and that area could be a support level if the rising parallel channel holds. We see this often where a parallel channel breaks (blue line) only to see a lower parallel line hold. That's what the bulls will be hanging their hats on this week.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I didn't mark it on the above chart, but I recall saying that if the inverted head and shoulders pattern we had been watching, decided to test the middle of the head, we could see a move to the 200-day EMA. Now that the breakout of the inverted head and shoulders pattern failed, the test of the head could be a reasonable expectation. Remember this chart?...
That would assume a break of the red parallel trading channel mentioned above, however. Lots of "what if's".
I talked a few weeks ago about how the pattern we saw last spring / summer is similar to the current S&P pattern. The formation is continuing and the short-term swings we saw during the June to August uptrend are potentially playing out the same way as we end 2012.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Like last July / August, the S&P 500 remains above the 200-day EMA, while it bounces above and below the 20 and 50-day EMAs. The parallel channel held back then so if this comparison is going to continue, that 1400 level really needs to hold.
Some of the indicators are leaning toward being oversold, and our Sentiment Survey showed our readers are leaning toward being overly bearish, so that gives the market a tilt to the bullish side for this week, but of course we, and the markets, are at the mercy of the folks in Washington right now.
I'm sure they're not all like this, but do you ever get the feeling that this incompetence in Washington is an intentional effort to keep the spotlight on them for as long as possible? They have had more than a year to do something and they are waiting until the last minute again. They talk about each other like junior high school kids in a reality show, rather than act like leaders who need to make a deal. They'll probably pass some short-term band-aid like deal this week and we'll all go through this again in a couple of months. Then they'll be back in the spotlight, on the Sunday news shows again, etc. Sigh.
Here is the New Years Day holiday chart again. Today is a good day historically, but we all know the deal why things may be different this year.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
I want to also mention one more time that the capital gains selling pressure, sellers looking to lock in the lower capital gains tax rate, ends today. That "could" keep the selling pressure on another day, but it could also trigger a big rally in January once the sellers stop selling. That's what happened in January 1987, but then again we weren't looking over a cliff back then.
Per the www.tsp.gov website: "Some financial markets will be closed on Tuesday, January 1st in observance of the New Year's Day holiday. The Thrift Savings Plan will also be closed. Transactions that would have been processed Tuesday night (January 1st) will be processed Wednesday night (January 2nd), at Wednesday's closing share prices."
Administrative Note: It's that time of year again. We will be rolling over the 2012 AutoTracker accounts into 2013 so if you don't already have an account on the AutoTracker and wish to be on it in 2013, now would be a good time to get started. You do need to have a Forum account to get on the AutoTracker. For more information on how to get started, click here. (If you have an active AutoTracker account, you do not need to join again.)
Thanks for reading! Have a happy, healthy, and prosperous New Year! We'll see you on Wednesday.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
