Economic News

[luv2read]

I thought it was interesting that consumer confidence was on a steady uptrend and peaked during the Clinton years and fell off when Bush was elected. Of course it dropped drastically after 9/11, but you'd think it would recover if BA was doing such a great job...wouldn'tcha? I wonder which way the winds of consumer confidence will blow if we get 4 more years...

BTW, I don't credit Clinton with the good stuff. I think Reagan had a lot to do with it. Economic policies don't have immediate effects, they take months, sometimes years, to show results. On the other hand, you have to look at the drop in 2000 after the election...to me this indicates a lack of confidence in the new administration.

 

[Birchtree]

"As I consider the way forward, I will always remember that the progress in Iraq is real, it's substantive, but it is reversible," Mr. Bush said Thursday in Dayton, Ohio. "And so the principle behind my decision on our troop levels will be ensuring that we succeed in Iraq."

Mr Bush used his latest speech to point to signs of life in Iraq's once moribund economy. Those indicators include rising oil production and business registrations, as well as overall growth. He held out hope that Iraq could become an example for other countries in the region, despite its struggles. "If the Middle East grows in freedom and prosperity, the appeal of extremism will decline, the prospects of peace will advance, and the American people will be safer here at home," he said. Mr Bush also spoke pointedly about Iraq's importance. "If America's strategic interests are not in Iraq - the convergence point for the twin threats of al Qaeda and Iran...the country at the heart of the most volatile region on Earth - then where are they?" he asked.

http://www.online.wsj.com/public/us

 

[luv2read]

"As I consider the way forward, I will always remember that the progress in Iraq is real, it's substantive, but it is reversible," Mr. Bush said Thursday in Dayton, Ohio. "And so the principle behind my decision on our troop levels will be ensuring that we succeed in Iraq."

Mr Bush used his latest speech to point to signs of life in Iraq's once moribund economy. Those indicators include rising oil production and business registrations, as well as overall growth. He held out hope that Iraq could become an example for other countries in the region, despite its struggles. "If the Middle East grows in freedom and prosperity, the appeal of extremism will decline, the prospects of peace will advance, and the American people will be safer here at home," he said. Mr Bush also spoke pointedly about Iraq's importance. "If America's strategic interests are not in Iraq - the convergence point for the twin threats of al Qaeda and Iran...the country at the heart of the most volatile region on Earth - then where are they?" he asked.

http://www.online.wsj.com/public/us

Here at home.

 

[Fivetears]

CPI - Consensus Notes
The consumer price index surprisingly showed an easing in inflation in April as the overall CPI posted a 0.2 percent increase, after a 0.3 percent boost the month before. The core rate also eased, to a 0.1 percent rise after a 0.2 percent advance the month before. The question for the May release is whether the April improvement was just a fluke or reflected a softening in demand. Indeed, weaker spending may have undercut inflation for motor vehicles, lodging away from home, and household furnishings in the April report. But energy was flat and that likely was just due to mismatches in unadjusted (seasonal) data and assumed seasonal changes in energy components. Also, higher commodity prices and import prices boosted food and apparel. There is lots of uncertainty over the true direction of consumer inflation but the Fed has now made inflation fighting job number one over recession prevention and this report is an almost guaranteed market mover.

CPI Consensus Forecast for May 08: +0.5 percent
Range: +0.2 to +0.7 percent

CPI ex food & energy Consensus Forecast for May 08: +0.2 percent
Range: +0.1 to +0.3 percent
http://fidweek.econoday.com

 

[Fivetears]

Consumer Sentiment Consensus Notes
The Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index fell in May to 59.8 from April's 62.6. April's reading is at the series' lowest since the early 1980s. The latest report had bad news especially for the inflation sensitive Fed as the one-year inflation expectations reading came in at a high 5.2 percent -- a 4 tenths gain from April.

Consumer sentiment Consensus Forecast for preliminary May 08: 59.8
Range: 55.0 to 63.0
http://fidweek.econoday.com

 

[Frixxxx]

Consumer Sentiment Consensus Notes
The Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index fell in May to 59.8 from April's 62.6. April's reading is at the series' lowest since the early 1980s. The latest report had bad news especially for the inflation sensitive Fed as the one-year inflation expectations reading came in at a high 5.2 percent -- a 4 tenths gain from April.

Consumer sentiment Consensus Forecast for preliminary May 08: 59.8
Range: 55.0 to 63.0
http://fidweek.econoday.com

And this:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/13/news/economy/CPI/index.htm

 

[Fivetears]

As the article states, "But even these diluted numbers are showing that inflation is getting uglier and uglier and uglier."
The CPI is up 4.2% YTD. 0.6% for MAY.
Energy costs rose 4.4% in May, and surged 17.4% over the 12 months!

...and the markets turn up today?? :notrust: :suspicious:

And this:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/13/news/economy/CPI/index.htm

 

[Silverbird]

As the article states, "But even these diluted numbers are showing that inflation is getting uglier and uglier and uglier."
The CPI is up 4.2% YTD. 0.6% for MAY.
Energy costs rose 4.4% in May, and surged 17.4% over the 12 months!

...and the markets turn up today?? :notrust: :suspicious:

I don't trust anything these markets do until after 2:00 pm.

 

[Frixxxx]

As the article states, "But even these diluted numbers are showing that inflation is getting uglier and uglier and uglier."
The CPI is up 4.2% YTD. 0.6% for MAY.
Energy costs rose 4.4% in May, and surged 17.4% over the 12 months!

...and the markets turn up today?? :notrust: :suspicious:

It won't hold:worried:

 

[Fivetears]

I sure wish we could "Pay Trade" TSP, and get in on pumping this market by the hour too.

 

[Fivetears]

Oh, by the way, the Fed will pause next week
In all the talk and market turmoil about when the Federal Reserve will choose to hike interest rates, one small fact keeps getting overlooked: the consensus is solid that Fed will hold rates steady next week awaiting more information about the outlook. Economists agree that the Fed will not move interest rates at the end of their two-day closed-door meeting that ends Wednesday, June 25 and that the Fed doesn't have the information to move, even if it wanted to. As to the larger questions beyond next week's meeting, the Fed can't answer what direction and when they will chose to adjust interest rates, these and other Fed watchers said. Although it is unsatisfactory and a cliché, it is also apt: the Fed's next move depends on how the economy develops. At play are two risks, one, to the downside, is falling home prices. The other, which has both upside and downside implications, is the spike in oil prices.
How these risks develop will tell the tale of interest rates.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...E-43E9-834C-E39070F1827D&dist=SecEditorsPicks

 

[Fivetears]

Summer Jobs Hard to Find, Especially for the Poor
As summer arrives, the job market for teens is suffering along with the rest of the economy. And those jobs will be harder to find this year for the poorer kids who need them the most as laid-off adults compete for work at the lowest rung.
"Summer is a time when the rich get richer and the poor get poorer," said Ron Fairchild, executive director of the Center for Summer Learning at Johns Hopkins University. Wealthier teens are more likely to have the family and school connections that help them land summer jobs -- as counselors at the camps they attend, lifeguards at the pools where they swim and clerks at the stores where they shop. Last summer, half of teens whose families earned $75,000 to $100,000 worked, according to the Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University. Less than a third of teens from families making less than $20,000 had work. Black teens in central cities had just a 15 percent employment rate. And because early work experience makes it easier to get a job as a grown-up, the tougher market for summer jobs for poor teens hobbles them as they get older. "The kids who need work the most get it the least," said Andrew Sum, director of the center.
The teen job market, like the overall economy, is looking bleak. :worried:
http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/personal-finance/lifestyle-money/summer-jobs-hard-especially-poor/

 

[Fivetears]

Americans Cut Highway Driving By 1.4 Billion Miles In April
Americans drove 1.4 billion fewer highway miles in April than during the same month a year earlier as skyrocketing fuel prices proded drivers to consider other options, including public transit, said U.S. Transportation Secretary Mary Peters in a statement. She also said vehicle miles traveled on all public roads were down 1.8% in April from the year-ago month. As Americans drive less, the federal Highway Trust Fund gets less funding from gasoline and diesel sales - 18.4 cents a gallon and 24.4 cents a gallon, respectively - which means the government will have to look at developing methods to sustainably fund highway and transit options in the future.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/ma...ans-cut-highway-driving--billion-miles-april/

 

[luv2read]

Americans Cut Highway Driving By 1.4 Billion Miles In April
Americans drove 1.4 billion fewer highway miles in April than during the same month a year earlier as skyrocketing fuel prices proded drivers to consider other options, including public transit, said U.S. Transportation Secretary Mary Peters in a statement. She also said vehicle miles traveled on all public roads were down 1.8% in April from the year-ago month. As Americans drive less, the federal Highway Trust Fund gets less funding from gasoline and diesel sales - 18.4 cents a gallon and 24.4 cents a gallon, respectively - which means the government will have to look at developing methods to sustainably fund highway and transit options in the future.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/ma...ans-cut-highway-driving--billion-miles-april/

Probably very few paid much attention to what I've emphasized above. However, there is reason to be concerned.[FONT=CG Times,Times New Roman]

[FONT=CG Times,Times New Roman]President Bush's Executive Order (No. 12803) on Infrastructure Privatization of April 30, 1992 cleared away federal barriers to cities and states selling or leasing existing public works infrastructure to private investors. This report reviews the potential for state and local governments to make use of the new option granted them by the Executive Order.[/FONT]

[/FONT]States have been selling infrastructure (highways) to sovereign wealth funds and other foreign investors as a means of gaining revenue and getting the maintenance costs off the books. The investors then lease them back to the states. The states then charge higher tolls, or set tolls where there were none to pay the rent. Since these roads aren't US property anymore, the investors can set tolls if the states don't. It's bad enough we're dependent on foreign oil. One day they will own us in more ways than one and we'll be trapped in our homes. Then they move in for the kill. See this link:

http://www.reason.org/ps139.html

 

[Fivetears]

Any way to find out which roads are owned by private entity; by state? So does this mean... if the "LANDLORDS" of these roads are not paid by the "RENTER" states, they can be forced off of them; blocked from driving them? In Texas, vehicle registration and the LOTO pays for roads and such.
L2R, that post doesn't sit well with me. I want to find out if any Texas Roads are owned by private individuals or corporations.

 

[Fivetears]

America's Shrinking Groceries
American supermarkets are epics of excess: it often seems like every item in the store comes in a "Jumbo" size or has "Bonus!" splashed across the label. But is it possible that the amount of food Americans are buying is, in fact... shrinking? Well, yes. Soaring commodity and fuel prices are driving up costs for manufacturers; faced with a choice between raising prices (which consumers would surely notice) or quietly putting fewer ounces in the bag, carton or cup (which they generally don't) manufacturers are choosing the latter. This month, Kellogg's started shipping Apple Jacks, Cocoa Krispies, Corn Pops, Froot Loops and Honey Smacks containing an average of 2.4 fewer ounces per box. Similar reductions have recently happened or are on the horizon for many other products: Tropicana orange juice containers are shrinking from 96 ounces to 89; Wrigley's is dropping its the 17-stick PlenTPak in favor of the 15-stick Slim Pack; Dial soap bars now weigh half an ounce less, and that's even before they melt in the shower. Containers of Country Crock spread, Hellmann's mayonnaise and Edy's and Breyer's ice cream have all slimmed down as well (although that may not necessarily be a bad thing).
http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20080630/us_time/americasshrinkinggroceries

 

[Fivetears]

Paulson: U.S. home prices to fall
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said high oil prices, further home price declines and capital markets turmoil will prolong the American economy's slowdown, while Europe and the UK were also showing signs of slower growth. Paulson said financial institutions face a tough earnings environment as they adjust to changes brought about by high oil prices and the housing slowdown. He reiterated his call for banks to strengthen balance sheets by raising new capital, de-leveraging or reviewing dividend policies. He said banks in the United States and the UK have raised capital equal to 95 and 96 percent of their recognized credit losses, respectively, but in continental Europe, institutions have covered only 56 percent of recognized losses with new capital so far.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080702/bs_nm/usa_paulson_economy_dc_1;_ylt=ArEzfT1WXbQ.4GWlyZgQxu0E1vAI

 

[Fivetears]

ADP shows biggest job loss in nearly 6 years
Private-sector jobs decline by 79,000 in June
Private-sector firms in the U.S. shed 79,000 jobs in June, the biggest net job loss since November 2002. This suggests U.S. nonfarm payrolls probably fell for a sixth straight month. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will report on June payrolls on tomorrow. The ADP has been much stronger than the government's payroll numbers in recent months. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, payrolls have fallen by 324,000 so far this year through May. ADP says 142,000 net jobs were created through May. After adding in some 20,000 government jobs that are created in a typical month but not included in ADP's index, the ADP number suggests that 60,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were lost in June. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expect 40,000 net payroll jobs were lost in June, following a loss of 49,000 in May. Lehman Bros. economists lowered their forecast to a loss of 75,000 from minus 50,000.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={63A22BD8-7F36-4F28-906D-21C3EB583BD5}

 

[luv2read]

I don't mind this at all since those giant containers don't fit in my storage areas....but i object to them putting LESS in those same giant containers and charging me for the CONTAINER and not the CONTENTS. Reduce the size of the boxes, bags, and barrels to fit the contents, PLEASE! The way it used to be....a bag of chips was a full bag, not 1/2 bag. Stop the excess please!

America's Shrinking Groceries
American supermarkets are epics of excess: it often seems like every item in the store comes in a "Jumbo" size or has "Bonus!" splashed across the label. But is it possible that the amount of food Americans are buying is, in fact... shrinking? Well, yes. Soaring commodity and fuel prices are driving up costs for manufacturers; faced with a choice between raising prices (which consumers would surely notice) or quietly putting fewer ounces in the bag, carton or cup (which they generally don't) manufacturers are choosing the latter. This month, Kellogg's started shipping Apple Jacks, Cocoa Krispies, Corn Pops, Froot Loops and Honey Smacks containing an average of 2.4 fewer ounces per box. Similar reductions have recently happened or are on the horizon for many other products: Tropicana orange juice containers are shrinking from 96 ounces to 89; Wrigley's is dropping its the 17-stick PlenTPak in favor of the 15-stick Slim Pack; Dial soap bars now weigh half an ounce less, and that's even before they melt in the shower. Containers of Country Crock spread, Hellmann's mayonnaise and Edy's and Breyer's ice cream have all slimmed down as well (although that may not necessarily be a bad thing).
http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20080630/us_time/americasshrinkinggroceries

 

[tsptalk]

June Jobs report:

-62,000
5.5% unemployment

May revision from -49K to -62K