Economic News

[Fivetears]

Ugly retail sales on tap, and more from Bernanke
The drumbeat of weak economic numbers will likely continue this coming week, topped by awful retail sales figures and depressed consumer sentiment readings. As if that weren't enough, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will trudge to Capitol Hill again, along with the rest of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, to explain to senators just why the financial markets aren't working. Risks abound in both the numbers and in the testimony. The retail sales report for January is the top indicator on the calendar. After falling 0.4% in December, sales probably fell 0.2% in January, according to economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The numbers will be released Wednesday.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...-4A29-A44B-DEB47E7AF898&dist=SecMostCommented

 

[Fivetears]

Poll: Majority of people believe recession underway
Empty homes and for-sale signs clutter neighborhoods. You've lost your job or know someone who has. Your paycheck and nest egg are taking a hit. Could the country be in recession? Sixty-one percent of the public believes the economy is now suffering through its first recession since 2001, according to an Associated Press-Ipsos poll. The fallout from a depressed housing market and a credit crunch nearly caused the economy to stall in the final three months of last year. Some experts, like the majority of people questioned in the poll, say the economy actually may be shrinking now. The worry is that consumers and businesses will hunker down further and pull back spending, sending the economy into a tailspin.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2008-02-10-economypoll_N.htm

 

[Fivetears]

Look for Surging Wheat Product Prices Soon.
Goldman Sachs boosts wheat price forecast
Investment bank Goldman Sachs has raised its outlook for Chicago wheat futures by 47 percent to $13.50 a bushel after the U.S. Department of Agriculture cut projected 2007/08 U.S. wheat ending stocks. The Goldman Sachs three-month and six-month price forecast compares with CBOT March soft red winter wheat futures closing price on Friday of $10.93 a bushel, after prices again rose by their 30-cent daily limit. Record high wheat prices were sparked on Friday by new world agriculture supply and demand estimates by the USDA, which cut projected U.S. wheat stocks at the end of the 2007/08 marketing year on May 31 to 272 million bushels from its estimate of 292 million bushels in January. This is the lowest levels of stocks since 1947/48.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080210/wheat_futures.html?.v=1

 

[Oldcoin]

Poll: Majority of people believe recession underway
Empty homes and for-sale signs clutter neighborhoods. You've lost your job or know someone who has. Your paycheck and nest egg are taking a hit. Could the country be in recession? Sixty-one percent of the public believes the economy is now suffering through its first recession since 2001, according to an Associated Press-Ipsos poll. The fallout from a depressed housing market and a credit crunch nearly caused the economy to stall in the final three months of last year. Some experts, like the majority of people questioned in the poll, say the economy actually may be shrinking now. The worry is that consumers and businesses will hunker down further and pull back spending, sending the economy into a tailspin.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2008-02-10-economypoll_N.htm

This is interesting; consumers have started to spend less in anticipation that we are either in a recession or headed into one. They do this even though they have not yet been negatively impacted by the slowdown. This becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, and they potentially could trip the economy into a recession by simply believing that we are headed into one.

 

[tsptalk]

This is interesting; consumers have started to spend less in anticipation that we are either in a recession or headed into one. They do this even though they have not yet been negatively impacted by the slowdown. This becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, and they potentially could trip the economy into a recession by simply believing that we are headed into one.

Also, when asked, the consumer is saying the economy is slowing, but I believe I read about 65% say they have not felt the effects themselves.

 

[Fivetears]

I count myself lucky to have a job today, and not be one standing in the unemployment line. With that in mind, my MS Money program reports clearly show the cost of my living expenses have steadily increased; Primarily Gas & Food. My recreational spending is less by an equal measure, and I struggle to maintain that "Pay Yourself First" philosophy by keeping that deposit the same. I've been forced to skim from it a couple of times.

Yes, I am only one.
Could there be others?

 

[Fivetears]

Our DOW, NASDAQ, and S&P markets are the epitome of self fulfilling prophesies; Bull or Bear. Either we through money at them, or we clear the tables. We need a concrete reason not to be clearing the tables right now. Who's smart money anyway? It's just been pump and dump lately. Smart money baits, dumb money bites, and we all head happily into this recession making smart money richer; right? :nuts:

This is interesting; consumers have started to spend less in anticipation that we are either in a recession or headed into one. They do this even though they have not yet been negatively impacted by the slowdown. This becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, and they potentially could trip the economy into a recession by simply believing that we are headed into one.

 

[Oldcoin]

Zacks.com

The Scariest Thing I Read Today

Monday February 11, 5:00 pm ET
By Stephen Reitmeister

Today we discussed the state of the economy and benefits of the tax stimulus package on our weekly audio commentary Zacks Roundtable Review. However, if I read the following article before our discussion, then no doubt I would have been much more pessimistic view of things.
am referring to the Harris Interactive poll for Zillow.com that says that ONLY 23% of the people surveyed believed the value of their home had declined. Further, 36% believe the value of their home has actually increased. Talk about denial

http://biz.yahoo.com/zacks/080211/11463.html?.v=1

Ignorance is bliss….and it can also make you poorer.

 

[Fivetears]

Beware all the ignorant "Zombies" destroying the USM's.
They are going to send us into a RECESSION! :nuts:

 

[Texarkandy]

I find it hard to believe mainstream American consumers are being "hard-hit" by a "recession" when they still have their $75+ a month cell-phones & $100+ a month HD cable tv accounts.

(when I see the cell-phone companies & cable tv companies taking big hits - then I'll know for sure the mainstream American consumer is hurting)

 

[Idaho Dave]

Zacks.com

The Scariest Thing I Read Today

Monday February 11, 5:00 pm ET
By Stephen Reitmeister

am referring to the Harris Interactive poll for Zillow.com that says that ONLY 23% of the people surveyed believed the value of their home had declined. Further, 36% believe the value of their home has actually increased. Talk about denial

http://biz.yahoo.com/zacks/080211/11463.html?.v=1

Ignorance is bliss….and it can also make you poorer.

You also have to consider that it depends on where the survey was taken. In some parts of the country the value of their homes have gone up. You also have to think of the timeline of those surveyed. My home is worth more than 2005 when I bought it by about 45k, but less than it was in Jan 2007 by about 10k.

 

[Fivetears]

Greenspan says U.S. "on the edge" of recession
Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on Thursday said the U.S. economy is "clearly on the edge" of a recession. Greenspan said the economy will continue to erode until there is a stabilization of U.S. housing prices. "We have a long way to go" before housing prices hit a bottom, Greenspan told energy executives at the CERA conference. High oil prices are dragging on the economy, but the fact that they haven't done more damage shows its resiliency. "It's a burden now," Greenspan said. He added that it's "quite remarkable" that the U.S. economy is "able to do reasonably well" with oil prices near historic highs.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080215/bs_nm/cera_energy_greenspan_dc

 

[Silverbird]

[Buffet proves he knows what direction bonds are going - here comes the first split of municipal vs CDO]

Bond Insurer FGIC Plans to Split Into Two Companies
Financial Guaranty Insurance Corp., the third-biggest bond insurer that just lost its triple A bond rating because of subprime-related losses, plans to split into two companies, New York state Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo told CNBC.

The company would be split into a municipal bond insurer and a structured finance insurance company, in a ''good-bank/bad-bank'' plan that would split off the relatively safe business of insuring municipal debt from the riskier business of guaranteeing repackaged mortgages and other debt.

AP​

http://www.cnbc.com/id/23182192

 

[Fivetears]

Doubters challenge view U.S. stocks are cheap
The U.S. corporate profit outlook has deteriorated rapidly over the past three months, but it has yet to fully reflect the softness of the economy, a factor that is likely to keep stocks on a weak footing. While some analysts argue the pullback in both stock prices and earnings estimates since last October has left U.S. equities at their cheapest in years, a less sanguine crowd of investors believes that's a flawed view. As earnings estimates drop further, the benchmark valuation tool -- price-to-earnings ratios -- will rise even if stocks stand still, indicating stocks are not nearly the bargain they currently appear to be. In other words, equity prices have not adjusted for that next round of downward earnings revisions.

Forecasts "are way too optimistic," said Al Goldman, chief market strategist at A.G. Edwards in St. Louis. "The economy is either in, or going into a recession, and the fact that securities analysts and many people believe earnings are going to be up double digits is one of the negatives the market is going to have to remove." Analysts said corporate earnings outlooks will need to come down as the slowdown in the economy takes its toll on sales and productivity.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN2030575520080220?rpc=44

 

[budnipper1]

Sharper Image finally goes belly-up
By William Spain, MarketWatch
Last update: 12:38 p.m. EST Feb. 20, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- After years of declining sales, The Sharper Image -- known for creature comforts and gadgets like robotic massage chairs and $170 toothbrushes -- has gone belly-up, declaring bankruptcy Wednesday.

In a brief statement, Sharper Image announced it had filed for Chapter 11 protection in U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware, but that it "intends to continue to conduct business as usual while it devotes renewed efforts to resolve its operational and liquidity problems and develops a reorganization plan." The move comes after a miserable period of declining sales and plummeting share prices. For the 12 months ended Jan. 31, the San Francisco-based retailer posted a 13% dive in same-store sales -- those at outlets open at least a year -- while total store sales fell 15% to $311.2 million. Overall company sales cratered 26% to $374.9 million. In 2006, revenue was $525 million, down from $669 million the year before and $760 million in 2004.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/sharper-image-finally-goes-belly-up/story.aspx?guid=%7B348D18D2-B567-46D3-B3C1-6488BA92F89C%7D&dist=hplatest

 

[alevin]

Food Stamp program projected to increase to alltime high in 2008. Program established 40 years ago.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/31/u...&ex=1207540800&partner=MYWAY&pagewanted=print

 

[Miss_Piggy]

Economy grows by only 0.6 percent in first quarter
Wednesday April 30, 10:14 am ET By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer

Economy limps ahead at a 0.6 percent pace in first quarter, better pace than expected

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080430/economy.html?.v=4

PS But I wouldn't trust the agencies to not manipulate the numbers.

 

[Silverbird]

One-year Treasury bill returns as deficit soars

Bush adminstration expands borrowing options after stimulus checks sent

AP updated 9:33 a.m. ET, Wed., April. 30, 2008

WASHINGTON - The Bush administration, moving to cope with soaring budget deficits, says it is bringing back the one-year Treasury bill that it stopped issuing seven years ago when the budget was in surplus.
The administration said Wednesday it would begin selling the one-year bill, also referred to as a 52-week bill, at an initial auction in June. New one-year securities will be auctioned every four weeks.

The government is looking for various ways to borrow the billions of dollars in extra cash it will need to cover a budget deficit that is expected to jump to an all-time high this year, surpassing the old mark of $413 billion set in 2004....

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24385752/

Gives a whole new meaning to paper money....

 

[luv2read]

One-year Treasury bill returns as deficit soars

Bush adminstration expands borrowing options after stimulus checks sent

AP updated 9:33 a.m. ET, Wed., April. 30, 2008

WASHINGTON - The Bush administration, moving to cope with soaring budget deficits, says it is bringing back the one-year Treasury bill that it stopped issuing seven years ago when the budget was in surplus.
The administration said Wednesday it would begin selling the one-year bill, also referred to as a 52-week bill, at an initial auction in June. New one-year securities will be auctioned every four weeks.

The government is looking for various ways to borrow the billions of dollars in extra cash it will need to cover a budget deficit that is expected to jump to an all-time high this year, surpassing the old mark of $413 billion set in 2004....

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24385752/

Gives a whole new meaning to paper money....

Saw that article this morning. They're bringing back the 3-year note as well. What they're not saying is the OTHER reason...foreign investors are just not interested in buying long-term US obligations. So maybe we can throw some short-terms at em....:laugh:

 

[Silverbird]

Saw that article this morning. They're bringing back the 3-year note as well. What they're not saying is the OTHER reason...foreign investors are just not interested in buying long-term US obligations. So maybe we can throw some short-terms at em....:laugh:

I guess it's a fishing expedition: rattling bobber? No? How about a pink worm? No? Ignore the hook, line and sinker, really it's not there.:embarrest: