Economic News

THE FED

Turmoil might be addressed without fed funds rate cut: Fed's Plosser

By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Last Update: 3:25 PM ET Sep 8, 2007


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve might not have to resort to a cut in its target federal funds rate to address the financial market turmoil and credit crunch, said Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank president Charles Plosser on Saturday.

"I believe disruptions in financial markets can be addressed using the tools available to the Fed without necessarily having to make a shift in the overall direction of monetary policy," Plosser said in a speech prepared for delivery to the Pennsylvania Association of Community Bankers meeting in Hawaii. A copy of his remarks was released here.

Plosser said the Fed can continue to provide liquidity in the face of financial shock. On Aug. 17, the Fed cut its discount rate and has taken a series of technical moves to provide the market with cash. The Fed has also undertaken a series of injections of funds in to the market.

Many Fed watchers believe the Fed district bank presidents are more reluctant to cut the federal funds rate than the members of the Fed board of governors.

In the past few days, some bank presidents have stressed that the Fed must avoid the "moral hazard" problem by bailing out investors who took excessive risk.

Plosser put it this way: "It is not appropriate for the Fed to ensure against financial volatility per se, or against individuals or firms taking losses or failing."

Plosser suggested that he is not yet certain whether the tight credit and financial turmoil is a "temporary disturbance" that would not throw the economy off track or a "shock" that would require a rate cut.
"I believe it is important to understand and appreciate this underlying stability of the economy in the face of temporary disturbances as we seek to assess monetary policy in the face of developments in housing," Plosser said.

"The FOMC continues to monitor incoming data and other economic information for signs that these disruptions are having a broader impact on the economy," he said.

Plosser said that he expected the drag on economic growth from housing to diminish gradually but last until sometime next year.

He said he believed the "most likely outcome" is that economic growth will return to trend later in 2008." Economists peg trend growth at a little less that 3% GDP growth.

Plosser said that there is considerable uncertainty surrounding his forecast and said the tighter credit conditions and disruptions in financial markets have only increased that uncertainty.

Many economists said that they are certain the Fed will cut rates at its next meeting on Sept. 18 after the surprisingly weak August unemployment report was released Friday. See full story.

Plosser did not mention the August job report in his remarks, but said Fed officials do not base their decisions "on any one number."

http://tinyurl.com/2kdq4d
 
Consumer bankruptcies for the month of August



Thursday, Sept. 6
Posted 2 p.m. Eastern
Consumer bankruptcies for the month of August

Consumer bankruptcy filings continued a rapid climb last month, increasing 17.3 percent nationwide, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute.

Data from the National Bankruptcy Research Center show 74,607 filings in August, compared to the 63,600 filings in July.

Chapter 13 repayment plan bankruptcy filings made up nearly 40 percent of consumer cases. This was a slight decrease from the amount in July.

The slight decline in Chapter 13 filings is quite interesting to me. Hopefully, people are talking with their mortgage holders and taking advantage of programs that will help them keep their homes. But considering the high levels of consumer debt, some consumers may still be relying heavily on their credit cards to meet payments.

Share what you think about the numbers at bankruptcyblog@bankrate.com.

Rewarding the irresponsible

Beating Bankruptcy reader James, of Savannah, Ga., believes the massive debt burden we have incurred will start coming home to Americans as they reach their retirement years.

"America has become a country where the responsible reward the irresponsible. If you don't think so, take a look at the person who kills another, and then gets free room, board and medical care (and no work) for life. ... If you don't [think so], look at the subprime loans and the bailout for the people that took them out. If you don't, look at the funding mechanism for Medicare and Medicaid."
James may also be referring to the fact that baby boomers are preparing to exit the workforce and the state of the economy will determine whether they plan to stay a little longer in their jobs or not. Economists are keeping a close eye on this transition.

What do you think of the opinion James presented? Tell us at bankruptcyblog@bankrate.com.

A policy analyst leaves behind his subprime impression

Policy analyst and former Federal Reserve Gov. Edward Gramlich passed away Wednesday, but are you aware of his book that has been dubbed "the bible" for the reporters and policymakers he left behind?

Gramlich was critical of the housing market and mortgage products and called for the regulation of subprime lenders.

His book, "Subprime Mortgages: America's Latest Boom and Bust," was published in June.

It examines the emergence of the subprime market, the cause of the collapse, and what policy changes can be instituted.



Beating Bankruptcy is a blog on bankruptcy and debt written by Brigitte Yuille.

-- Posted: Sep. 6, 2007


http://www.bankrate.com/brink/story_content.asp?story_uid=23077&prodtype=today
 
Employment Situation Summary
Technical information:
Household data: (202) 691-6378 USDL 07-1363
http://www.bls.gov/cps/

Establishment data: 691-6555 Transmission of material in this release
http://www.bls.gov/ces/ is embargoed until 8:30 A.M. (EDT),
Media contact: 691-5902 Friday, September 7, 2007.


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: AUGUST 2007

Nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-4,000) in August, and
the unemployment rate remained at 4.6 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of
the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Over the last 3 months, total pay-
roll employment changes have averaged 44,000 per month and private sector employ-
ment changes have averaged 72,000 per month (as revised). In August, employment
in manufacturing, construction, and local government education declined, while job
growth continued in health care and food services.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

The number of unemployed and the unemployment rate held at 7.1 million and
4.6 percent, respectively, in August. The unemployment level and rate were
little changed from a year earlier. In August, the unemployment rates for adult
men (4.1 percent), adult women (4.1 percent), teenagers (16.1 percent), whites
(4.2 percent), blacks (7.7 percent), and Hispanics (5.5 percent) showed little
or no change. The unemployment rate for Asians was 3.4 percent, not seasonally
adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)


Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

In August, the civilian labor force edged down to 152.9 million, and the
labor force participation rate decreased to 65.8 percent. The declines were
largely due to a drop in labor force participation among teenagers; their
participation rate fell to 39.7 percent. Total employment (145.8 million)
and the employment-population ratio (62.8 percent) were little changed over
the month. (See table A-1.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 million
in August, was 359,000 higher than a year earlier. This category includes persons
who indicated that they would like to work full time but were working part time
because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find full-
time jobs. (See table A-5.)

Persons Not in the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

Nearly 1.4 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally attached
to the labor force in August, down by 227,000 from a year earlier. These indivi-
duals wanted and were available to work and had looked for a job sometime during
the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not
searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally
attached, there were 392,000 discouraged workers in August, little different
from a year earlier. Discouraged workers were not currently looking for work
specifically because they believed no jobs were available for them. The nearly
1.0 million remaining persons marginally attached to the labor force in August
had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such
as school attendance and family responsibilities. (See table A-13.)

- 2 -

Table A. Major indicators of labor market activity, seasonally adjusted
(Numbers in thousands)

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
 
Durable Goods Orders - 8:30 ET
Consensus Notes
Durable goods orders in July rose sharply with gains widespread. Durable goods orders jumped 5.9 percent in July, following a 1.9 percent partial rebound in June. Excluding the volatile transportation component, new orders posted a large gain, rising 3.7 percent in July following a 1.2 percent decline in June. Excluding defense, new durables orders surged 4.9 percent, following a 2.3 percent gain in June. Durables orders are very volatile on a monthly basis - even for the stripped down versions - and a partial reversal of the July numbers should not be a surprise. A negative number that more than offsets July is what would be worrisome.

New orders for durable goods Consensus Forecast for August 07: -3.1%
Range: -7.0% to +1.0%
http://fidweek.econoday.com/reports/US/EN/New_York/dgo/year/2007/yearly/09/index.html
 
Who's on Deck - 8:30 AM ET
St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President William Poole (FOMC voting member) to address small business owners, in St. Louis, Missouri.
Closed to the press.
 
Federal Reserve – The rest of the story:
You can download Ed Griffins lecture “The Creature from Jekyll Island” from this website, it’ll blow your hair back.
Some highlights: It’s not Federal(Private Banks own it), there are no reserves.
It was created in 1910 by the seven wealthiest men in the world.
 
U.S. Economic Events & Analysis for Friday
We know retail sales were weak in August and inflation worries are now on the back burner, factors that will limit the impact of the personal income and outlays report. What will be important for the markets will be the consumer sentiment report and whether it confirms erosion shown earlier in the week by the Conference Board.

Personal Income and Outlays: 8:30 ET
Personal Income - M/M change
Consensus 0.3%; Range 0.2% to 0.4%
Consumer Spending - M/M change
Consensus 0.4%; Range 0.2% to 0.6%

Construction Spending: 10:00 ET
Construction Spending - M/M change
Consensus -0.5%; Range -0.7% to 0.2%

Consumer Sentiment: 10:00 ET
Sentiment Index - Level
Consensus 84.3; Range 82.7 to 85.0

Good luck to all Friday Bull Riders

df8b505cd0039b5095b26f6708b42947.image.177x220.gif


http://fidweek.econoday.com/calendar/US/EN/New_York/year/2007/month/09/day/27/daily/index.html
 
Analysts see drop in auto sales in Sept.
DETROIT - September auto sales are expected to be weak due to a credit crunch, high gas prices and the troubled housing market, reflecting an overall slowdown for the year but little effect from the brief strike against General Motors, industry analysts say. Indeed, the impact of the two-day strike could be small in what could become the most sluggish year for sales since 1998, according to industry experts. GM lost production of about 25,000 vehicles due to the strike.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070928...s_outlook_3;_ylt=AtCfkO1jJvLVfGWgJxRJBdjqxQcB
 
Consumer, construction spending advance
WASHINGTON - Consumers shrugged off sagging home prices and financial market turmoil in August to push up spending by a better-than-expected amount. In other good news, a key inflation gauge showed price pressures outside of food and energy eased further last month and construction activity rose, thanks to continued strength outside of housing. The batch of new reports Friday offered some reassurance that the current economic expansion will not be derailed by the continued troubles in housing and the severe credit crunch that roiled financial markets last month. Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of total economic activity, is considered the key to whether the country avoids a recession.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070928/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy_111;_ylt=Aoee6n_6nfiVqlAuGNei3vjqxQcB
 
Dollar sinks to fresh lows as consumer data in focus
NEW YORK (AFP) - The euro went on another record-setting run against the dollar Friday, smashing through the 1.42-dollar level for the first time as traders focused on tame inflation and weak US consumer sentiment reports.
Analysts said tepid US economic data reinforced a growing conviction that the US Federal Reserve would continue cutting interest rates to help shore up a struggling US economy.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070928/bs_afp/forexus_070928213528;_ylt=AvcPSxECyP.d7Sef24XdWvzqxQcB
 
Michigan Heading Toward Budget Shut Down?
Two-Thirds Of State Employees Told Not To Report To Work On Monday
Comments 19
LANSING, Mich., Sept. 28, 2007

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Michigan's State Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer, D-Battle Creek, talks with Majority Leader Mike Bishop, R-Rochester, during a Senate session Sept. 23, 2007, at the state Capitol in Lansing, Mich. (AP)



Related
Stories
Michigan To Shut Down Over Budget Impasse?


(AP) Two-thirds of the state's more than 53,000 workers were told Friday not to report to work on Monday as negotiations continued over a budget plan that could avoid a partial government shutdown.

"Due to an unanticipated loss of funding as a result of the state's current budget crisis, I am notifying you that you are being placed on a temporary layoff" beginning at 12:01 a.m. Monday, employees were told in a message e-mailed from department directors, a copy of which was obtained by The Associated Press.

"Do not report to work beginning on Monday, October 1, 2007, unless otherwise notified."

The messages went to about 35,000 state workers. The remainder will remain on the job, according to Liz Boyd, Gov. Jennifer Granholm's spokeswoman. About 12,000 of those are prison employees.

"We will have limited state police," Boyd added.

The message to workers added that negotiations continued on a deal that would avoid a government shutdown Monday and told employees that "if and when an agreement is reached, you will be expected to report at your next scheduled shift."

Members of the Granholm administration met with both House Democrats and Republicans on Friday afternoon, raising optimism that a deal lawmakers could vote on was close that would fill a $1.75 billion shortfall in the fiscal year that starts Monday.

House members were told that no budget deal votes were likely until at least 5 p.m. Legislative leaders and the Granholm administration were tight-lipped about possible progress, but talks were continuing.

"I know these have been trying and uncertain times for you and all of us who serve the public in state government," the message from the department heads added. "It is my hope that this uncertainty will come to a quick resolution with state lawmakers joining with the governor in a resolution of the state's budget crisis."

The fight over what the budget deal should look like took to the airwaves Friday afternoon, as the Michigan Republican Party began running a 60-second radio ad saying the party doesn't agree with raising taxes and urging the governor to sign a budget extension.

The Michigan Democratic Party, meanwhile, put an ad on its Web site blaming the Republican Senate majority leader, Mike Bishop, if government shuts down.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/09/28/national/main3309295.shtml
 
Thats about as shallow as it gets. Forget about the 35,000 workers; lets use this as a campaign tool. :notrust:
Michigan Heading Toward Budget Shut Down?
The Michigan Democratic Party, meanwhile, put an ad on its Web site blaming the Republican Senate majority leader, Mike Bishop, if government shuts down.
 
Fed's Kohn says half-point rate cut may be enough

By Greg Robb
Last Update: 9:10 AM ET Oct 5, 2007

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve's half-a-percentage point rate cut on Sept. 18 may be enough to keep the economy from sinking from the financial market turmoil, said Donald Kohn, the vice-chairman of the Fed Board on Friday. "But pending further evidence, a 50-basis-point easing was not an unreasonable first approximation of what might be required to keep the economy on a sustainable growth path," Kohn said in a speech to the Greater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce. It would be better for the Fed to respond "too much or too rapidly" to the turmoil in financial markets rather than acting "too little or too slowly," Kohn said. With recent favorable inflation news, Kohn said he believes the Fed could reverse the recent rate cut if it turned out to be larger than needed


http://tinyurl.com/yte3pp
 
This article below gives you an idea that B52 Ben, Paulson, and Bush don't have a clue. Core inflation is ok, keep cutting rates, and don’t worry about the dollar, save the stock market at all cost and let the dollar tank.

Don't get me wrong I'm well off, so I send money to my folks to help them out. Yes, they should have been better savers like many of us on this board. However, they didn't save much.

I have been a republican since the first time I voted. I'm now an independent and will not be voting for many republicans this next election. I will look to vote for the party that will help my parents and other retired folks.

I have a s#@t load of money, a good job, a Military retirement, and no debt. The party that helps Joe six pack the most will get my vote. The problem is believing what they say. Yeah, the Republicans will reduce spending and cut taxes! Reduce spending! Need some ocean front property in Arizona! The republicans answer is work till your 70 that will save social security. People are living longer and should work longer! Hope your not a landscaper, construction worker, or truck driver, you get my point! Yeah, 69 year old truck drivers should make the roads safer.


Many will disagree with my comments, but it's my opinion and I never miss an election. See you and the booth folks. Eight years of Bill wasn't that bad!

Oh, I voted for Bush twice, my BAD!

Robo



Living Paycheck to Paycheck Gets Harder

By ANNE D'INNOCENZIO (AP Business Writer)
From Associated Press

October 20, 2007 6:41 AM EDT
NEW YORK - The calculus of living paycheck to paycheck in America is getting harder. What used to last four days might last half that long now. Pay the gas bill, but skip breakfast. Eat less for lunch so the kids can have a healthy dinner.

Across the nation, Americans are increasingly unable to stretch their dollars to the next payday as they juggle higher rent, food and energy bills. It's starting to affect middle-income working families as well as the poor, and has reached the point of affecting day-to-day calculations of merchants like Wal-Mart Stores Inc., 7-Eleven Inc. and Family Dollar Stores Inc.

Food pantries, which distribute foodstuffs to the needy, are reporting severe shortages and reduced government funding at the very time that they are seeing a surge of new people seeking their help.

While economists debate whether the country is headed for a recession, some say the financial stress is already the worst since the last downturn at the start of this decade.

From Family Dollar to Wal-Mart, merchants have adjusted their product mix and pricing accordingly. Sales data show a marked and more prolonged drop in spending in the days before shoppers get their paychecks, when they buy only the barest essentials before splurging around payday.

"It's pretty pronounced," said Kiley Rawlins, a spokeswoman at Family Dollar. "It seems like to us, customers are running out of food products, paper towels sooner in the month."

Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, said the imbalance in spending before and after payday in July was the biggest it has ever seen, though the drop-off wasn't as steep in August.

And 7-Eleven says its grocery sales have jumped 12-13 percent over the past year, compared with only slight increases for non-necessities like gloves and toys. Shoppers can't afford to load up at the supermarket and are going to the most convenient places to buy emergency food items like milk and eggs.

"It even costs more to get the basics like soap and laundry detergent," said Michelle Grassia, who lives with her husband and three teenage children in the Bedford-Stuyvesant section of Brooklyn, N.Y.

Her husband's check from his job at a grocery store used to last four days. "Now, it lasts only two," she said.

To make up the difference, Grassia buys one gallon of milk a week instead of three. She sometimes skips breakfast and lunch to make sure there's enough food for her children. She cooks with a hot plate because gas is too expensive. And she depends more than ever on the bags of free vegetables and powdered milk from a local food pantry.

Grassia's story is neither new nor unique. With the fastest-rising food and energy prices since the 1980s, low-income consumers are stretching their budgets by eating cheap foods like peanut butter and pasta.

Industry analysts and some economists fear the strain will get worse as people are hit with higher home heating bills this winter and mortgage rates go up.

It's bad enough already for 85-year-old Dominica Hoffman.

She gets $1,400 a month in pension and Social Security from her days in the garment industry. After paying $500 in rent on an apartment in Pennsauken, N.J., and shelling out money for food, gas and other expenses, she's broke by the end of the month. She's had to cut fruits and vegetables from her grocery order - and that's even with financial help from her children.

"Everything is up," she said.

Many consumers, particularly those making less than $30,000 a year, are cutting spending on nutritious food like milk and vegetables, and analysts fear they're further skimping on basic medical care and other critical services.

Coupon-clipping just isn't enough.

"The reality of hunger is right here," said the Rev. Melony Samuels, director of The BedStuy Campaign against Hunger, a church-affiliated food pantry in Brooklyn.

The pantry scrambled to feed 5,000 new families over the past 12 months, up almost 70 percent from 3,000 the year before.

"I am shocked to see such numbers," Samuels said, "and I am really concerned that this is just the beginning of what we are going to see."

In the past three months, Samuels has seen more clients in higher-paying jobs - the $35,000 range - line up for food.

The Regional Food Bank of Northeastern New York, which covers 23 counties in New York State, cited a 30 percent rise in visitors in the first nine months of this year, compared with 2006.

Maureen Schnellmann, senior director of food and nutrition programs at the American Red Cross Food Pantry in Boston, reported a 30 percent increase from January through August over last year.

Until a few months ago, Dellria Seales, a home care assistant, was just getting by living with her daughter, a hairdresser, and two grandchildren in a one-bedroom apartment for $750 a month. But a knee injury in January forced her to quit her job, leaving her at the mercy of Samuels' pantry because most of her daughter's $1,200 a month income goes to rent, energy and food costs.

"I need it. Without it, we wouldn't survive," Seales said as she picked up carrots and bananas.

John Vogel, a professor at Dartmouth College's Tuck School of Business, worries that the squeeze will lead to a less nutritious diet and inadequate medical or child care.

In the meantime, rising costs show no signs of abating.

Gas prices hit a record nationwide average of $3.23 per gallon in late May before receding a little, though prices are expected to soar again later this year. Food costs have increased 4.5 percent over the past 12 months, partly because of higher fuel costs. Egg prices were 44 percent higher, while milk was up 21.3 percent over the past 12 months to nearly $4 a gallon, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The average family of four is spending anywhere from $7 to $10 extra a week - $40 more a month - on groceries alone, compared to a year ago, according to retail consultant Burt Flickinger III.

And while overall wage growth is a solid 4.1 percent over the past 12 months, economists say the increases are mostly for the top earners.

Retailers started noticing the strain in late spring and early summer as they were monitoring the spending around the paycheck cycle.

Wal-Mart and Family Dollar key on the first week of the month, when government checks like Social Security and public assistance generally hit consumers' mailboxes.

7-Eleven, whose customers are more diverse, looks at paycheck cycles in specific markets dominated by a major employer, such as General Motors in Detroit, to discern trends in shopping.

To economize, shoppers are going for less expensive food.

"They're buying more peanut butter and pasta. And they're going for hamburger meat," Flickinger, the retail consultant, said. "They're trying to outsmart the store by looking for deep discounts at the end of the month."

He said the last time he saw this was 2000-2001, when the dot-com bubble burst and the economy went into a recession after massive layoffs.

For now, low-price retailers are readjusting their merchandising and pricing.

Wal-Mart is becoming more aggressive on discounting. It announced Thursday it is expanding price cuts to 15,000 items, ranging from Motts apple juice and Progresso soups to women's fleece tops, heading into the holidays.

Family Dollar, whose food offerings were limited to candy and snacks until two years ago, has expanded its mix of groceries like fruit cups, cereal and such refrigerated items as milk and ice cream while cutting back on shoes. This summer the chain began accepting food stamps.

Food pantries are also getting creative. Samuels said her church, Full Gospel Tabernacle of Faith, just started offering free cooking classes to teach clients who are diabetic or have other health conditions how to prepare vegetables like squash. It's also offering free exercise classes.

"We are trying to make them health conscious," Samuels said. "It's not right to give them just anything. Our mantra is eat well and live well."

---

Associated Press Writers Geoff Mulvihill in Mount Laurel, N.J., and Terry Tang in Phoenix, Ariz., contributed to this report.


http://enews.earthlink.net/article/bus?guid=20071020/47197d40_3ca6_15526200710201558253609
 
Today 10:00am
*SEPT EXISTING HOME SALES: 5.04M V 5.25ME; SALES M/M: -8% V -4.5%E
- prior revised to 5.48M from 5.50M
- Sales prior revised to -4.7%
- 5.04M is Lowest reading in the last 10 years

Units Sold (in mlns) Sept Aug (Prev) Sept.06
Total Existing Homes 5.04 5.48 5.50 6.23
Single Family 4.38 4.79 4.81 5.46
Condos/Co-ops 0.66 0.69 0.69 0.77

Units Sold, Pct Change Sept Aug (Prev) Sept07/06
Total Existing Homes -8.0 -4.7 -4.3 -19.1
Single Family -8.6 -4.2 -3.8 -19.8
Condos/Co-ops -4.3 -8.0 -8.0 -14.7

Sept Aug (Prev) Sept06
Total Median Price 211.7 224.4 224.5 220.9
Median Pct Change -5.7 -1.9 -1.8 -4.2
Average Price 257.8 269.3 269.3 266.4
Average Pct Change -4.3 -2.4 -2.4 -3.2
Units Available (mlns) 4.399 4.383 4.581 3.783
Months Worth of Supply 10.5 9.6 10.0 7.3

http://www.tradethenews.com/story_details.asp?id=289472

This news should not be a shock to anyone, the housing market is on its’ butt and we all know it.
 
Today 10:00am
*SEPT NEW HOME SALES: 770K V 770KE; M/M RATE: 4.8% V -3.1%E (due to revision to prior month)
- prior revised to 735K from 795K
- revised 735K is lowest reading since mid-1997

Aug Jul Jun
Total Units -7.9 0.1 -7.4

Number of Months: Sep Aug Jul
Supply of Homes 8.3 9.0 8.2
1,000 units: Sep Aug Jul
End-Month Inventory 523 531 537
In 1,000s: Sep Aug Jul
Actual Units Sold 60 63 68
Sales Prices:
Mean 288.0 297.0 306.4
Median 238.0 232.1 245.6
http://www.tradethenews.com/story_details.asp?id=290583
 
Back
Top