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Economic News
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
Hey Dell, Long time no see, no thats not right, long time no communicate or something. Stick around!!
Oldcoin
Member
2007-05-21- 10:20
Indexes Prev. Closing Last High Low Change%
SSE 180 8342.75 8324.41 8362.17 8046.26 -0.22
SSE 50 2854.32 2842.85 2857.93 2757.57 -0.40
SSE Composite 4030.26 4024.99 4042.57 3892.98 -0.13
SSE New Composite 3398.74 3393.62 3408.48 3282.87 -0.15
SSE Dividend 3481.74 3488.50 3509.77 3343.07 0.19
SSE A Share 4218.92 4212.54 4230.82 4075.92 -0.15
SSE B Share 360.67 367.27 369.90 342.49 1.83
SSE Fund 2966.75 2964.34 2970.56 2907.14 -0.08
SSE Government Bond 111.21 111.05 111.24 111.00 -0.15
SSE Corporate Bond 121.46 121.25 121.45 121.07 -0.18
http://www.sse.com.cn/sseportal/en_us/ps/home.shtml
The Shanghai doesn’t look too bad yet, only off by a few points. We’ll have to keep our eye on this, many are predicting a pullback that will start with the Shanghai Index.
Sorry about the misalignment of numbers, they don’t copy that well.
Welcome back Dell.
Indexes Prev. Closing Last High Low Change%
SSE 180 8342.75 8324.41 8362.17 8046.26 -0.22
SSE 50 2854.32 2842.85 2857.93 2757.57 -0.40
SSE Composite 4030.26 4024.99 4042.57 3892.98 -0.13
SSE New Composite 3398.74 3393.62 3408.48 3282.87 -0.15
SSE Dividend 3481.74 3488.50 3509.77 3343.07 0.19
SSE A Share 4218.92 4212.54 4230.82 4075.92 -0.15
SSE B Share 360.67 367.27 369.90 342.49 1.83
SSE Fund 2966.75 2964.34 2970.56 2907.14 -0.08
SSE Government Bond 111.21 111.05 111.24 111.00 -0.15
SSE Corporate Bond 121.46 121.25 121.45 121.07 -0.18
http://www.sse.com.cn/sseportal/en_us/ps/home.shtml
The Shanghai doesn’t look too bad yet, only off by a few points. We’ll have to keep our eye on this, many are predicting a pullback that will start with the Shanghai Index.
Sorry about the misalignment of numbers, they don’t copy that well.
Welcome back Dell.
Oldcoin
Member
We have a very light week as far as economic reports go. Fact is the calendar is down right skimpy. So, maybe we can focus in on one of the reports and try to predict what’s going to happen. Keep in mind that my batting record isn’t to good and I’ve heard that you should never try to predict the market using macroeconomic data, but fools rush in……..
Last weeks housing starts and building permits were worse than expected, reflecting the continuing slowdown (recession) in the housing market. On May 1 we received the pending home sales report from NAR which indicated a drop of 4.9%. (This was existing home sales.) On average it takes 4 to 6 weeks to close a home sale and clear escrow. Last months report came in below consensus at 858,000 and January and February were revised lower.
So, what does it all mean and what impact will Thursdays’ New and Existing Home Sales have on the market. The market is looking for numbers of 850 to 860K, which are lowered expectations. If the trend has continued and we are to believe the NAR report the numbers released on May 24th could fall below market expectations. So what’s the impact to the market?
I’m using stockcharts.com so I may be a little off, but I think I got it right. If we look at May 1st for the NAR report there was an initial drop and the market closed near its high for the day with a small gain. Housing Starts and permits were out on 5/16, we were up nicely. Finally, on 4/25 when the last home sales report was issued, we had a sideways day followed by a nice pop up the next day.
I’m sticking with what I said last week, the market may have already factored in the housing recession and bad numbers will have a minimal impact, which will be short term. Don’t forget…..you heard it from a fool.
Here are your economic calendars;
http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200721.html
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
The Earnings Calendar is really thinning out also this week. We’ll have to rely on M&A activity for any excitement. There are some favorites thought; Chambell Soup umm umm good! Also Lowes reports; it will be interesting to see if they get hit as hard as Home Depot in the 1st quarter. I suspect that part of Home Depot’s problem is mismanagement on top of a housing recession. Toll Bros and a mess of retailers will be reporting.
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Private/Calendars/EarningsCalendarWeek2.htm
We do have some limited Fed Speak next week. Paulson is going to talk to the Chinese, however based on what Norm said earlier it looks like they’ve already loosened up on the Yaun.
Last weeks housing starts and building permits were worse than expected, reflecting the continuing slowdown (recession) in the housing market. On May 1 we received the pending home sales report from NAR which indicated a drop of 4.9%. (This was existing home sales.) On average it takes 4 to 6 weeks to close a home sale and clear escrow. Last months report came in below consensus at 858,000 and January and February were revised lower.
So, what does it all mean and what impact will Thursdays’ New and Existing Home Sales have on the market. The market is looking for numbers of 850 to 860K, which are lowered expectations. If the trend has continued and we are to believe the NAR report the numbers released on May 24th could fall below market expectations. So what’s the impact to the market?
I’m using stockcharts.com so I may be a little off, but I think I got it right. If we look at May 1st for the NAR report there was an initial drop and the market closed near its high for the day with a small gain. Housing Starts and permits were out on 5/16, we were up nicely. Finally, on 4/25 when the last home sales report was issued, we had a sideways day followed by a nice pop up the next day.
I’m sticking with what I said last week, the market may have already factored in the housing recession and bad numbers will have a minimal impact, which will be short term. Don’t forget…..you heard it from a fool.
Here are your economic calendars;
http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200721.html
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
The Earnings Calendar is really thinning out also this week. We’ll have to rely on M&A activity for any excitement. There are some favorites thought; Chambell Soup umm umm good! Also Lowes reports; it will be interesting to see if they get hit as hard as Home Depot in the 1st quarter. I suspect that part of Home Depot’s problem is mismanagement on top of a housing recession. Toll Bros and a mess of retailers will be reporting.
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Private/Calendars/EarningsCalendarWeek2.htm
We do have some limited Fed Speak next week. Paulson is going to talk to the Chinese, however based on what Norm said earlier it looks like they’ve already loosened up on the Yaun.
Oldcoin
Member
ICSC-UBS Store Sales
Highlights
Retail sales in May, following the disappointment and uncertainty of April, will have a big impact on the economic outlook, and ICSC-UBS's report this morning points to trouble. ICSC-UBS's index is up a paltry year-on-year 1.9 percent in the May 19 week, with the week-to-week change down 1.5 percent. The report blamed high gasoline prices for the weakness. Redbook is up next.
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
Redbook
Highlights
Retail sales in May, so far at least, don't seem much better than April. Earlier this morning ICSC-UBS reported a weak 1.9 percent year-on-year rise in the May 19 week, backed now by Redbook and its 2.0 percent tally. Redbook said the latest comparison was hurt by a calendar shift for Mother's Day which, on May 13, fell a week earlier this year. The report also said cool weather hurt demand for summer goods. High gas prices are no doubt also a factor.
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
Highlights
Retail sales in May, following the disappointment and uncertainty of April, will have a big impact on the economic outlook, and ICSC-UBS's report this morning points to trouble. ICSC-UBS's index is up a paltry year-on-year 1.9 percent in the May 19 week, with the week-to-week change down 1.5 percent. The report blamed high gasoline prices for the weakness. Redbook is up next.
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
Redbook
Highlights
Retail sales in May, so far at least, don't seem much better than April. Earlier this morning ICSC-UBS reported a weak 1.9 percent year-on-year rise in the May 19 week, backed now by Redbook and its 2.0 percent tally. Redbook said the latest comparison was hurt by a calendar shift for Mother's Day which, on May 13, fell a week earlier this year. The report also said cool weather hurt demand for summer goods. High gas prices are no doubt also a factor.
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
Oldcoin
Member
Durable Goods Orders
Highlights
Durable goods orders continued to show healthy growth in April. Durable goods orders rose 0.6 percent in April, following a 5.0 percent boost in March. The consensus had forecast a 1.2 percent increase in durables orders for April. March was revised up to a 5.0 percent gain, compared to the prior estimate of a 4.3 percent jump. Excluding the volatile transportation component, new orders rose 1.5 percent, also following a 1.5 percent advance in March. Today's report shows a moderately healthy manufacturing sector that could cause bond rates to firm. Equity markets should like the fact that the economy is healthy but could see the impact on rates as a negative.
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
Jobless Claims
After three weeks of steady improvement, jobless claims popped back up in the May 19 week, rising a roughly as expected 15,000 to 311,000. There were no special factors in the week. Despite the rise, the four-week average still showed improvement, down 3,500 to 302,750 and the lowest level in more than a year.
Also posted were continuing claims for the May 12 week, the same week that the Labor Department compiles its monthly employment surveys. Continuing claims rose 58,000 in the week to 2.529 million, a level that nevertheless compares favorably with 2.588 million in the survey week for April. A comparison of survey weeks for initial claims shows an even greater improvement, at 311,000 vs. 341,000.
It was hard to gauge initial reaction to the data which were released with what looks to be a solid durable goods report. But reaction or not, the data, despite the latest week's gains, point to improving conditions in the labor market.
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
Highlights
Durable goods orders continued to show healthy growth in April. Durable goods orders rose 0.6 percent in April, following a 5.0 percent boost in March. The consensus had forecast a 1.2 percent increase in durables orders for April. March was revised up to a 5.0 percent gain, compared to the prior estimate of a 4.3 percent jump. Excluding the volatile transportation component, new orders rose 1.5 percent, also following a 1.5 percent advance in March. Today's report shows a moderately healthy manufacturing sector that could cause bond rates to firm. Equity markets should like the fact that the economy is healthy but could see the impact on rates as a negative.
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
Jobless Claims
After three weeks of steady improvement, jobless claims popped back up in the May 19 week, rising a roughly as expected 15,000 to 311,000. There were no special factors in the week. Despite the rise, the four-week average still showed improvement, down 3,500 to 302,750 and the lowest level in more than a year.
Also posted were continuing claims for the May 12 week, the same week that the Labor Department compiles its monthly employment surveys. Continuing claims rose 58,000 in the week to 2.529 million, a level that nevertheless compares favorably with 2.588 million in the survey week for April. A comparison of survey weeks for initial claims shows an even greater improvement, at 311,000 vs. 341,000.
It was hard to gauge initial reaction to the data which were released with what looks to be a solid durable goods report. But reaction or not, the data, despite the latest week's gains, point to improving conditions in the labor market.
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
Oldcoin
Member
New-Home Sales in April Jump by the Most in 14 Years (Update2)
By Bob Willis
May 24 (Bloomberg) -- Purchases of new homes in the U.S. unexpectedly surged in April by the most in 14 years, ignited by the biggest decline in median prices since 1970.
Sales rose 16 percent to an annual pace of 981,000 last month from an 844,000 rate the prior month that was less than previously reported, the Commerce Department said in Washington. The supply of unsold homes at the current sales pace dropped.
Falling prices and incentives offered by builders such as Centex Corp. are stirring demand for new homes after two years of falling sales. Still, a glut of unsold properties suggests homebuilding is likely to remain a drag on growth throughout this year and into 2008.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKrNeTswrdNk&refer=home
By Bob Willis
May 24 (Bloomberg) -- Purchases of new homes in the U.S. unexpectedly surged in April by the most in 14 years, ignited by the biggest decline in median prices since 1970.
Sales rose 16 percent to an annual pace of 981,000 last month from an 844,000 rate the prior month that was less than previously reported, the Commerce Department said in Washington. The supply of unsold homes at the current sales pace dropped.
Falling prices and incentives offered by builders such as Centex Corp. are stirring demand for new homes after two years of falling sales. Still, a glut of unsold properties suggests homebuilding is likely to remain a drag on growth throughout this year and into 2008.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKrNeTswrdNk&refer=home
Oldcoin
Member
Here are the numbers on the new home sales report;
Today 10:00am
*APR NEW HOME SALES: 981K V 860KE
- prior revised to 844K from 858K
- Medium New Home price -11%.1% to $229.1K
Apr Mar Feb
Sales At Annual Rate 981,000 844,000 856,000
Percent Change 16.2% -1.4% -3.8%
Northeast 83,000 80,000 45,000
Midwest 120,000 125,000 123,000
South 561,000 439,000 482,000
West 217,000 200,000 206,000
Median Price 229,100 257,600 250,100
Mean Price 299,100 324,700 322,600
Houses For Sale 538,000 546,000 545,000
Months of Inventory 6.5 8.1 8.0
http://www.tradethenews.com/story_details.asp?id=217793
Today 10:00am
*APR NEW HOME SALES: 981K V 860KE
- prior revised to 844K from 858K
- Medium New Home price -11%.1% to $229.1K
Apr Mar Feb
Sales At Annual Rate 981,000 844,000 856,000
Percent Change 16.2% -1.4% -3.8%
Northeast 83,000 80,000 45,000
Midwest 120,000 125,000 123,000
South 561,000 439,000 482,000
West 217,000 200,000 206,000
Median Price 229,100 257,600 250,100
Mean Price 299,100 324,700 322,600
Houses For Sale 538,000 546,000 545,000
Months of Inventory 6.5 8.1 8.0
http://www.tradethenews.com/story_details.asp?id=217793
Oldcoin
Member
Here is the initial blurb on Existing Home Sales:
Today 10:00am
*APR EXISTING HOME SALES: 5.99MM V 6.12ME
- prior revised to 6.15M from 6.12M
- Inventories rose 10.4% to with months supply rising to 8.4 from 7.4
- The median price for a home previously owned was $220,900 in April, down 0.8% from $222,600 in April 2006. The median price in March this year was $217,400.
http://www.tradethenews.com/story_details.asp?id=218384
Today 10:00am
*APR EXISTING HOME SALES: 5.99MM V 6.12ME
- prior revised to 6.15M from 6.12M
- Inventories rose 10.4% to with months supply rising to 8.4 from 7.4
- The median price for a home previously owned was $220,900 in April, down 0.8% from $222,600 in April 2006. The median price in March this year was $217,400.
http://www.tradethenews.com/story_details.asp?id=218384
Oldcoin
Member
U.S. Existing Home Sales Fell 2.6% in April to 5.99 Mln Rate
By Shobhana Chandra
May 25 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. fell unexpectedly in April to the lowest level in almost four years, dimming prospects for a quick recovery in housing.
Purchases fell 2.6 percent to an annual rate of 5.99 million last month from 6.15 million in March, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The supply of homes for sale at the current sales pace rose to the highest since August 1992.
The decline suggests that homeowners may have to cut prices further before sales stabilize. A government report yesterday showed that sales of new homes, which account for 15 percent of the market, surged unexpectedly as buyers took advantage of the biggest decline in median prices since 1970. The Federal Reserve has said housing remains a risk to its forecast for ``moderate'' growth this year.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=agxKazDf_Z7U&refer=economy
By Shobhana Chandra
May 25 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. fell unexpectedly in April to the lowest level in almost four years, dimming prospects for a quick recovery in housing.
Purchases fell 2.6 percent to an annual rate of 5.99 million last month from 6.15 million in March, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The supply of homes for sale at the current sales pace rose to the highest since August 1992.
The decline suggests that homeowners may have to cut prices further before sales stabilize. A government report yesterday showed that sales of new homes, which account for 15 percent of the market, surged unexpectedly as buyers took advantage of the biggest decline in median prices since 1970. The Federal Reserve has said housing remains a risk to its forecast for ``moderate'' growth this year.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=agxKazDf_Z7U&refer=economy
Oldcoin
Member
We have a very busy holiday shortened week with significant economic reports released on Thursday and Friday. However Tuesday starts us off with the Consumer Confidence report. The numbers have been slipping since January and it is being forecast that the numbers will improve slightly over the prior period. For me it’s difficult to see the numbers improving much with the price of energy so high, it seems that this would have a negative impact on the numbers.
On Wednesday the Redbook and FOMC minutes will be released. I don’t expect any surprises from the FOMC minutes it was a solid vote to hold the rates with no dissenters. Thursday things really start to heat up with the Preliminary GDP; advanced numbers were released in April. Expectations are that the numbers will be revised to a 4 year low; with the lowered expectations it’s difficult to say what the impact will be on the market. Chicago PMI and Construction Spending will also be released on Thursday.
We wrap up the week with the Monster Employment report, this rates an A for importance. Expectations are that the employment numbers will improve over the prior period and the unemployment rate will hold steady. In my readings I have seen it opined that the Fed is keying in on the employment numbers and will not lower rates until we see a increase in unemployment…..they may be right. Finally we get the Core PCE, ISM index and Auto/Truck sales.
http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200722.html
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
We still have some first quarter reporting this week; Costco, Sears, Dell Novell and HJ Heinz are the names that popped out at me.
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Private/Calendars/EarningsCalendarWeek2.htm
On Friday the Feds Krugner will speak; I have no other speaking engagements. I tried to track down something on Greenspud and what he’ll be doing this week….but couldn’t find a thing.
Finally, Bull and Bear Wise dropped two points on last weeks jobless claims to 53.73.
http://www.bullandbearwise.com/
On Wednesday the Redbook and FOMC minutes will be released. I don’t expect any surprises from the FOMC minutes it was a solid vote to hold the rates with no dissenters. Thursday things really start to heat up with the Preliminary GDP; advanced numbers were released in April. Expectations are that the numbers will be revised to a 4 year low; with the lowered expectations it’s difficult to say what the impact will be on the market. Chicago PMI and Construction Spending will also be released on Thursday.
We wrap up the week with the Monster Employment report, this rates an A for importance. Expectations are that the employment numbers will improve over the prior period and the unemployment rate will hold steady. In my readings I have seen it opined that the Fed is keying in on the employment numbers and will not lower rates until we see a increase in unemployment…..they may be right. Finally we get the Core PCE, ISM index and Auto/Truck sales.
http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200722.html
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
We still have some first quarter reporting this week; Costco, Sears, Dell Novell and HJ Heinz are the names that popped out at me.
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Private/Calendars/EarningsCalendarWeek2.htm
On Friday the Feds Krugner will speak; I have no other speaking engagements. I tried to track down something on Greenspud and what he’ll be doing this week….but couldn’t find a thing.
Finally, Bull and Bear Wise dropped two points on last weeks jobless claims to 53.73.
http://www.bullandbearwise.com/
Oldcoin
Member
U.S. May Consumer Confidence Rises More Than Forecast (Update1)
By Bob Willis
May 29 (Bloomberg) -- An index of consumer confidence in the U.S. jumped more than forecast in May as rising stock prices and a resilient labor market put Americans in a mood to spend.
The New York-based Conference Board's index of consumer confidence rose to 108.0 this month from a revised 106.3 in April, a five-month low. The index averaged 105.9 last year.
Buoyant sentiment will support consumer spending, helping cushion the economy from the effects of declining home prices and expensive gasoline. That raises the likelihood the Federal Reserve's forecast for ``moderate'' growth in coming quarters will be borne out.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLQRBTulbYpc&refer=home
By Bob Willis
May 29 (Bloomberg) -- An index of consumer confidence in the U.S. jumped more than forecast in May as rising stock prices and a resilient labor market put Americans in a mood to spend.
The New York-based Conference Board's index of consumer confidence rose to 108.0 this month from a revised 106.3 in April, a five-month low. The index averaged 105.9 last year.
Buoyant sentiment will support consumer spending, helping cushion the economy from the effects of declining home prices and expensive gasoline. That raises the likelihood the Federal Reserve's forecast for ``moderate'' growth in coming quarters will be borne out.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLQRBTulbYpc&refer=home
Oldcoin
Member
MBA Purchase Applications
Definition
The Mortgage Bankers' Association compiles various mortgage loan indexes. The purchase applications index measures applications at mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction
Highlights
The Mortgage Bankers' purchase index fell 2.5 percent in the May 25 week to a 427 level that is just below the four-week average of 433.9. Unlike some housing data such as existing home sales, Mortgage Banker data have been showing improvement over the past two months.
But rising interest rates may threaten whatever rebound the housing market is seeing. Thirty-year fixed mortgages averaged 6.32 percent, up 9 basis points in the week. Higher rates appear to be having a more immediate effect on refinancing, with MBA's index down 13% in the week to 1,874.6.
The housing sector remains the weak spot of the economy. Construction spending data will be released tomorrow.
ICSC-UBS Store Sales
Highlights
ICSC-UBS's chain store index was unchanged week-to-week for the May 26 week but the year-on-year pace rose 2.9 percent vs. 1.9 percent in the prior week. Despite the year-on-year gain, the report nevertheless described sales as soft. Redbook is up next.
ADP Employment Report
Highlights
ADP is looking a moderate 97,000 rise in private payrolls for May, a gain indicating less strength than current expectations for a 135,000 rise in non-farm payroll for Friday's employment report. Treasuries firmed slightly in initial reaction to the report.
Redbook
Highlights
Redbook reported a modest 2.4 percent rise in store sales for the May 26 week, little changed from the prior week's pace. The report cited unseasonably cool weather for the results. Volatile weather along with the Easter calendar shift hurt sales very badly in April. A repeat of April's weakness in retail sales, or anything near it, would shake up the economic outlook. Chain stores won't report their May results until next week.
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
Later today the FOMC Minutes are released. Of course this could all be overshadowed by events in Asia.
Definition
The Mortgage Bankers' Association compiles various mortgage loan indexes. The purchase applications index measures applications at mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction
Highlights
The Mortgage Bankers' purchase index fell 2.5 percent in the May 25 week to a 427 level that is just below the four-week average of 433.9. Unlike some housing data such as existing home sales, Mortgage Banker data have been showing improvement over the past two months.
But rising interest rates may threaten whatever rebound the housing market is seeing. Thirty-year fixed mortgages averaged 6.32 percent, up 9 basis points in the week. Higher rates appear to be having a more immediate effect on refinancing, with MBA's index down 13% in the week to 1,874.6.
The housing sector remains the weak spot of the economy. Construction spending data will be released tomorrow.
ICSC-UBS Store Sales
Highlights
ICSC-UBS's chain store index was unchanged week-to-week for the May 26 week but the year-on-year pace rose 2.9 percent vs. 1.9 percent in the prior week. Despite the year-on-year gain, the report nevertheless described sales as soft. Redbook is up next.
ADP Employment Report
Highlights
ADP is looking a moderate 97,000 rise in private payrolls for May, a gain indicating less strength than current expectations for a 135,000 rise in non-farm payroll for Friday's employment report. Treasuries firmed slightly in initial reaction to the report.
Redbook
Highlights
Redbook reported a modest 2.4 percent rise in store sales for the May 26 week, little changed from the prior week's pace. The report cited unseasonably cool weather for the results. Volatile weather along with the Easter calendar shift hurt sales very badly in April. A repeat of April's weakness in retail sales, or anything near it, would shake up the economic outlook. Chain stores won't report their May results until next week.
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
Later today the FOMC Minutes are released. Of course this could all be overshadowed by events in Asia.
Oldcoin
Member
Fed Sees Housing Damping Growth Longer Than Expected (Update5)
By Craig Torres
May 30 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials acknowledged they underestimated the U.S. housing recession, while continuing to view inflation as the biggest risk to the economy.
``The correction of the housing sector was likely to continue to weigh heavily on economic activity through most of this year -- somewhat longer than previously expected,'' the central bank said in minutes of the May 9 Federal Open Market Committee meeting released today in Washington.
Policy makers kept their prediction of a pick-up in economic growth and said ``downside risks'' to the expansion have ``diminished slightly.'' Inflation that's too high for officials' comfort, combined with the housing slump, suggests the Fed may not adjust interest rates in coming months.
The committee foreshadowed that the economy will expand a ``little below'' the ``trend rate of growth through the remainder of this year and then pick up to a rate broadly in line with the economy's trend rate in 2008.'' Many economists and Fed officials estimate the trend rate at about 3 percent.
Treasuries were little changed after the minutes were published. The benchmark 10-year note yielded 4.87 percent at 4:12 p.m. in New York, compared with 4.88 late yesterday.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUmatM9tG2xs&refer=home
By Craig Torres
May 30 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials acknowledged they underestimated the U.S. housing recession, while continuing to view inflation as the biggest risk to the economy.
``The correction of the housing sector was likely to continue to weigh heavily on economic activity through most of this year -- somewhat longer than previously expected,'' the central bank said in minutes of the May 9 Federal Open Market Committee meeting released today in Washington.
Policy makers kept their prediction of a pick-up in economic growth and said ``downside risks'' to the expansion have ``diminished slightly.'' Inflation that's too high for officials' comfort, combined with the housing slump, suggests the Fed may not adjust interest rates in coming months.
The committee foreshadowed that the economy will expand a ``little below'' the ``trend rate of growth through the remainder of this year and then pick up to a rate broadly in line with the economy's trend rate in 2008.'' Many economists and Fed officials estimate the trend rate at about 3 percent.
Treasuries were little changed after the minutes were published. The benchmark 10-year note yielded 4.87 percent at 4:12 p.m. in New York, compared with 4.88 late yesterday.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUmatM9tG2xs&refer=home
Oldcoin
Member
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has issued the following news release today:
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2007, according to preliminary estimates.
Also, profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $20.3 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $4.9 billion in the fourth quarter.
The full text of the release on BEA's Web site can be found at
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2007, according to preliminary estimates.
Also, profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $20.3 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $4.9 billion in the fourth quarter.
The full text of the release on BEA's Web site can be found at
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
Oldcoin
Member
Today 09:45am
*MAY CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER: 61.7 V 54.0E
- Prices Paid: 70.2 v 64.9 last
- New Orders: 71.1 v 56.5 last
- Employment: 57.3 v 50.5 last
- Inventories: 52.6 v 43.2 last
- Supplier Deliveries: 45.3 v 43.4 last
- Production: 69.8 v 62.2 last
- Order Backlogs: 53.0 v 48.4 last
- prices paid highest since August of 2006
http://www.tradethenews.com/story_details.asp?id=220245
*MAY CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER: 61.7 V 54.0E
- Prices Paid: 70.2 v 64.9 last
- New Orders: 71.1 v 56.5 last
- Employment: 57.3 v 50.5 last
- Inventories: 52.6 v 43.2 last
- Supplier Deliveries: 45.3 v 43.4 last
- Production: 69.8 v 62.2 last
- Order Backlogs: 53.0 v 48.4 last
- prices paid highest since August of 2006
http://www.tradethenews.com/story_details.asp?id=220245
Oldcoin
Member
Monster Employment Index
The monster employment index edged 1 point higher in April to 186 indicating slowing growth for online job demand. The report said the result is consistent with a moderating economy. Educational services and wholesale trade showed the largest gains in the month with construction also higher.
Corporate Profits
Corporate profits in the first quarter rose to $1.374 trillion annual rate, setting a record and compared to the fourth quarter's $1.362 trillion. First quarter profits growth rebounded to an annualized 3.6 percent, following a 0.5 percent annualized dip in the fourth quarter. Profits are after tax but without inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Corporate profits are up 7.0 percent on a year-on-year basis, compared to up 16.0 percent in the fourth quarter.
Gross Domestic Product
For the first revision, first quarter real GDP was revised down to an annualized 0.6 percent from the initial estimate of 1.3 percent. The revision was below the market consensus projection of a downward revision to 0.8 percent annualized growth. The first quarter pace followed a 2.5 percent annualized boost in the fourth quarter. The first quarter GDP price index was unrevised from the initial estimate of 4.0 percent and matched consensus expectations. The core PCE price index also was unrevised and came in at 2.2 percent. Today's report is essentially as expected and should have little impact on the markets.
Jobless Claims
Jobless claims were little changed in the May 26 week, down 4,000 to an as-expected level of 310,000. There were no special factors in the week. The current level is very near the four-week average of 304,500. Continuing claims continued to show improvement, down 52,000 to 2.472 million in data tracking the May 19 week. Today's report won't move the markets but it may firm expectations for steady strength in tomorrow's employment report for the month of May.
NAPM-Chicago
Chicago purchasers, representing a mix of both manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries, reported a big jump in business activity in May, to an index reading of 61.7 from 52.9 in April. Huge swings in this report are unfortunately common, with May-to-April's 8.8 point month-to-month change the same as the change from March to April. The change from February to March was even bigger, at 13.8! A likely suspect for the big swings are low sample sizes.
Construction Spending
Construction spending edged up 0.1 percent in April, following a 0.6 percent boost in March. The April increase was just above the market forecast for no change in construction outlays. March outlays were revised up notably from the prior estimate of a 0.2 percent rise. The April gain was led by nonresidential and public construction outlays. Once again, residential construction continued to decline.
Help Wanted Index
The Conference Board's help-wanted index was unchanged in April at 29. The report measures month-to-month changes in newspaper advertising volume, an area that is being hurt by the rise of online advertising.
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
The monster employment index edged 1 point higher in April to 186 indicating slowing growth for online job demand. The report said the result is consistent with a moderating economy. Educational services and wholesale trade showed the largest gains in the month with construction also higher.
Corporate Profits
Corporate profits in the first quarter rose to $1.374 trillion annual rate, setting a record and compared to the fourth quarter's $1.362 trillion. First quarter profits growth rebounded to an annualized 3.6 percent, following a 0.5 percent annualized dip in the fourth quarter. Profits are after tax but without inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Corporate profits are up 7.0 percent on a year-on-year basis, compared to up 16.0 percent in the fourth quarter.
Gross Domestic Product
For the first revision, first quarter real GDP was revised down to an annualized 0.6 percent from the initial estimate of 1.3 percent. The revision was below the market consensus projection of a downward revision to 0.8 percent annualized growth. The first quarter pace followed a 2.5 percent annualized boost in the fourth quarter. The first quarter GDP price index was unrevised from the initial estimate of 4.0 percent and matched consensus expectations. The core PCE price index also was unrevised and came in at 2.2 percent. Today's report is essentially as expected and should have little impact on the markets.
Jobless Claims
Jobless claims were little changed in the May 26 week, down 4,000 to an as-expected level of 310,000. There were no special factors in the week. The current level is very near the four-week average of 304,500. Continuing claims continued to show improvement, down 52,000 to 2.472 million in data tracking the May 19 week. Today's report won't move the markets but it may firm expectations for steady strength in tomorrow's employment report for the month of May.
NAPM-Chicago
Chicago purchasers, representing a mix of both manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries, reported a big jump in business activity in May, to an index reading of 61.7 from 52.9 in April. Huge swings in this report are unfortunately common, with May-to-April's 8.8 point month-to-month change the same as the change from March to April. The change from February to March was even bigger, at 13.8! A likely suspect for the big swings are low sample sizes.
Construction Spending
Construction spending edged up 0.1 percent in April, following a 0.6 percent boost in March. The April increase was just above the market forecast for no change in construction outlays. March outlays were revised up notably from the prior estimate of a 0.2 percent rise. The April gain was led by nonresidential and public construction outlays. Once again, residential construction continued to decline.
Help Wanted Index
The Conference Board's help-wanted index was unchanged in April at 29. The report measures month-to-month changes in newspaper advertising volume, an area that is being hurt by the rise of online advertising.
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
Oldcoin
Member
Above is a brief summary of the economic reports released today. I’ve read several editorials and most have fixated on the GDP numbers. But I think we have to look at the total picture before making a decision about where the economy is going.
The Monster Report, Jobless Claims and Help Wanted Index all indicate that employment has not slowed down. Tomorrow’s big employment report will hopefully confirm what the three reports indicated today. (At least that’s what those indicators are supposed to do!)
Corporate profits really popped up and the NAPM-Chicago really jumped up, although the Chicago numbers tend to be all over the place, it’s still an indication of economic activity. Even Construction spending was above expectations, but still dismal. Corporate profits include activity outside the U.S. and may not be a great indicator of our economy.
That being said, it still appears that the economy is growing at a very slow pace. Based on what we are seeing it still doesn’t look like the Fed is going to lower rates. What will it take for them to consider lowering? Well a significant outside event would provide a catalyst for lowering, but inflation is still the primary focus.
The Monster Report, Jobless Claims and Help Wanted Index all indicate that employment has not slowed down. Tomorrow’s big employment report will hopefully confirm what the three reports indicated today. (At least that’s what those indicators are supposed to do!)
Corporate profits really popped up and the NAPM-Chicago really jumped up, although the Chicago numbers tend to be all over the place, it’s still an indication of economic activity. Even Construction spending was above expectations, but still dismal. Corporate profits include activity outside the U.S. and may not be a great indicator of our economy.
That being said, it still appears that the economy is growing at a very slow pace. Based on what we are seeing it still doesn’t look like the Fed is going to lower rates. What will it take for them to consider lowering? Well a significant outside event would provide a catalyst for lowering, but inflation is still the primary focus.
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