ATCJeff
Well-known member
Didn't somebody say today that they (Feds) revised March downward? You know today's report will be revised also in a month!
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Economic News
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
Didn't somebody say today that they (Feds) revised March downward? You know today's report will be revised also in a month!
Oldcoin
Member
I agree with you that the Fed will not cut rates, unless things get much worse later this year. So far the economic numbers haven’t been terrible, housing and auto manufactures are currently in a recession, but the GDP continues to grow and ISM stays above 50, the economy has slowed, but not stopped. So they have no motivation to cut rates. Right now I have the chances of a recession later in the year at about 25 to 30%, of course that means that there is a 70 to 75% chance that the converse will happen.
The primary focus of the Fed is inflation right now and until it is within their comfort zone I don’t think there is enough pressure to lower.
Oldcoin
Member
Getting right to the point; the primary focus of traders next week will be the FOMC policy statement on the 9th. I have said that I think they will hold rates again, but that’s not what traders will be looking for, their going to be looking at the statement release for any change in language and what that could mean for any future changes in the rates. I expect them to come out with the same language they issued at the last meeting; however they may be looking to give themselves some maneuvering room further down the road.
On the 11th we have the PPI, Core PPI reports and Retails Sales. The consumer is crucial to the health of the economy so a good read on Retails Sales is essential. Both these reports rate a B- and A- for importance. Here are your calendars;
http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200719.html
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
We’re still in the middle of first quarter earnings reports. One of my favorites, Boston Beer Co. reports on Tuesday. I don’t own stock in SAM…….well I do have a little stock in the refrigerator.
Also the Mickey Mouse Company along with a whole slew of others will be reporting all week. Keep an eye on Toll Bros they report on the 9th.
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Private/Calendars/EarningsCalendarWeek2.htm
Finally the Bull and Bear Wise index jumped two points last week. After loosing 4 points at the beginning of the week the index rebounded on both ISM reports and personal income, all of which reversed from the prior period.
http://www.bullandbearwise.com/
On the 11th we have the PPI, Core PPI reports and Retails Sales. The consumer is crucial to the health of the economy so a good read on Retails Sales is essential. Both these reports rate a B- and A- for importance. Here are your calendars;
http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200719.html
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
We’re still in the middle of first quarter earnings reports. One of my favorites, Boston Beer Co. reports on Tuesday. I don’t own stock in SAM…….well I do have a little stock in the refrigerator.
Also the Mickey Mouse Company along with a whole slew of others will be reporting all week. Keep an eye on Toll Bros they report on the 9th.http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Private/Calendars/EarningsCalendarWeek2.htm
Finally the Bull and Bear Wise index jumped two points last week. After loosing 4 points at the beginning of the week the index rebounded on both ISM reports and personal income, all of which reversed from the prior period.
http://www.bullandbearwise.com/
Oldcoin
Member
Bernanke May Be Too Slow to Cut Interest Rates as Growth Stalls
By Rich Miller
May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Ben S. Bernanke may be too slow on the trigger.
That's the conclusion some economists are drawing as the Federal Reserve chairman and fellow policy makers prepare for their May 9 meeting, likely to be the seventh in a row without a change in interest rates.
Bernanke's consensus-driven decision-making style, fondness for inflation targets and reliance on the Fed staff all suggest he'll be slower than predecessor Alan Greenspan to ease credit, economists say. Such caution could prove critical if the economy fails to improve, as the Fed expects, after growth in the first quarter was the weakest in four years.
``Bernanke is locked into the Fed forecast and the Fed consensus,'' says Allen Sinai, president of New York-based consultants Decision Economics. ``He's much less likely to move quickly than Greenspan.''
A minority of economists even say Bernanke may have already waited too long to reduce rates and the U.S. is headed into recession or near-recession.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aaLFlRBeS0dc&refer=home
By Rich Miller
May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Ben S. Bernanke may be too slow on the trigger.
That's the conclusion some economists are drawing as the Federal Reserve chairman and fellow policy makers prepare for their May 9 meeting, likely to be the seventh in a row without a change in interest rates.
Bernanke's consensus-driven decision-making style, fondness for inflation targets and reliance on the Fed staff all suggest he'll be slower than predecessor Alan Greenspan to ease credit, economists say. Such caution could prove critical if the economy fails to improve, as the Fed expects, after growth in the first quarter was the weakest in four years.
``Bernanke is locked into the Fed forecast and the Fed consensus,'' says Allen Sinai, president of New York-based consultants Decision Economics. ``He's much less likely to move quickly than Greenspan.''
A minority of economists even say Bernanke may have already waited too long to reduce rates and the U.S. is headed into recession or near-recession.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aaLFlRBeS0dc&refer=home
Oldcoin
Member
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
Highlights
Consumer credit jumped $13.5 billion in March, well above expectations and compared with an upward revised $5.5 billion in February. Revolving credit rose $4.6 billion to $6.8 billion, reflecting higher gas prices and strong retail sales, while non-revolving, reflecting solid vehicle sales, rose $3.3 billion to $6.7 billion. March's gains, equal to a 6.7% annual growth rate, are well above trend comparing against a 4.6 percent annual rate in the first quarter and 4.1% in the fourth quarter. Moderate job growth appears to be enough to keep consumer spending going, a plus for retail sales. Chain-store reports for April will be released Thursday while April retail trade data, one of the week's calendar highlights, will be released Friday.
Highlights
Consumer credit jumped $13.5 billion in March, well above expectations and compared with an upward revised $5.5 billion in February. Revolving credit rose $4.6 billion to $6.8 billion, reflecting higher gas prices and strong retail sales, while non-revolving, reflecting solid vehicle sales, rose $3.3 billion to $6.7 billion. March's gains, equal to a 6.7% annual growth rate, are well above trend comparing against a 4.6 percent annual rate in the first quarter and 4.1% in the fourth quarter. Moderate job growth appears to be enough to keep consumer spending going, a plus for retail sales. Chain-store reports for April will be released Thursday while April retail trade data, one of the week's calendar highlights, will be released Friday.
Show-me
Well-known member
Short on time. Consumer credit was a WOW!
Now the cynic in me sez consumers are strapped for cash because of inflation or weak jobs. Credit card companies good luck collecting the balance.
From a stock investor aspect more sales means more money. I don't care if its credit or cash.
Now the cynic in me sez consumers are strapped for cash because of inflation or weak jobs. Credit card companies good luck collecting the balance.
From a stock investor aspect more sales means more money. I don't care if its credit or cash.
Oldcoin
Member
Highlights
Store sales slipped back in the May 5 week, down 0.6 percent week-on-week for an annual pace of 1.7 percent that's down 2 tenths from the prior week. The report cited rising gas prices and unseasonably cool weather for the downtick. ICSC-UBS pegs sales for the full month of April to decline 1 percent due to the Easter calendar shift. Chain stores will post their monthly data on Thursday. Redbook is up later this morning.
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
Highlights
Store sales are disappointing according to Redbook's tally that shows only a 0.1 percent year-on-year rise in the May 5 week, barely changed from a 0.2 percent rise in the prior week. ICSC-UBS's report earlier this morning showed a 1.7 percent gain but also described sales as soft. Chain stores will report their April sales on Thursday followed by Commerce Department data on Friday.
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
Store sales slipped back in the May 5 week, down 0.6 percent week-on-week for an annual pace of 1.7 percent that's down 2 tenths from the prior week. The report cited rising gas prices and unseasonably cool weather for the downtick. ICSC-UBS pegs sales for the full month of April to decline 1 percent due to the Easter calendar shift. Chain stores will post their monthly data on Thursday. Redbook is up later this morning.
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
Highlights
Store sales are disappointing according to Redbook's tally that shows only a 0.1 percent year-on-year rise in the May 5 week, barely changed from a 0.2 percent rise in the prior week. ICSC-UBS's report earlier this morning showed a 1.7 percent gain but also described sales as soft. Chain stores will report their April sales on Thursday followed by Commerce Department data on Friday.
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
Oldcoin
Member
Today 10:00am
Nation Assoc of Realtors lowers FY07 Existing Home Sales forecast again to -2.9% v -2.2% prior
- The NAR said new home sales are likely to fall 17.8% to 864,000, compared with the prior forecast of a 14.2% drop
- The national median existing-home price is forecast to slip 1.0% to $219,800 this year, and then rise 1.4% in 2008. The median new-home price is expected to be essentially unchanged at $246,400 in 2007, and then rise 2.2% next year
http://www.tradethenews.com/story_details.asp?id=209914
Nation Assoc of Realtors lowers FY07 Existing Home Sales forecast again to -2.9% v -2.2% prior
- The NAR said new home sales are likely to fall 17.8% to 864,000, compared with the prior forecast of a 14.2% drop
- The national median existing-home price is forecast to slip 1.0% to $219,800 this year, and then rise 1.4% in 2008. The median new-home price is expected to be essentially unchanged at $246,400 in 2007, and then rise 2.2% next year
http://www.tradethenews.com/story_details.asp?id=209914
Oldcoin
Member
Wholesale inventories rose 0.3 in March for a year-on-year pace of 8.1 percent that's on the low end of trend. Sales at the wholesale level surged in March, up 1.8 percent to a year-on-year pace of 8.4 percent that's on the high end of trend. Despite the surge in sales, the inventory-to-sales ratio tightened 1 tenth to 1.14. Note that petroleum inventories, always volatile due to price changes, rose 3.1 percent in the month for a gain that was well ahead of a 0.8 percent rise for sales.
The wholesale level is the base of the supply chain and an important area to watch. March was a strong month for the economy as it was in the wholesale sector. Inventories for manufacturers showed a 0.2 percent rise in data released last week, while inventory data at retailers will be released with Friday's business inventory report.
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
The wholesale level is the base of the supply chain and an important area to watch. March was a strong month for the economy as it was in the wholesale sector. Inventories for manufacturers showed a 0.2 percent rise in data released last week, while inventory data at retailers will be released with Friday's business inventory report.
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
Oldcoin
Member
Today 02:19pm
FOMC Statement comparative analysis: only a few minor revisions, as expected
- todays statement adds language acknowledging that "economic growth slowed in the first part of the year."
-
- the FOMC also tweaked the inflation statement noting "core inflation remains somewhat elevated" versus the prior statement in which they said " recent readings on core inflation have been somewhat elevated."
-
- today's statement maintained focus on inflation as the "predominant policy concern."
http://www.tradethenews.com/story_details.asp?id=210822
Well I don’t see any big surprises in this release.
FOMC Statement comparative analysis: only a few minor revisions, as expected
- todays statement adds language acknowledging that "economic growth slowed in the first part of the year."
-
- the FOMC also tweaked the inflation statement noting "core inflation remains somewhat elevated" versus the prior statement in which they said " recent readings on core inflation have been somewhat elevated."
-
- today's statement maintained focus on inflation as the "predominant policy concern."
http://www.tradethenews.com/story_details.asp?id=210822
Well I don’t see any big surprises in this release.
Oldcoin
Member
THE FED
Fed holds interest rates steady
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:24 PM ET May 9, 2007
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Federal Reserve, as had been broadly anticipated, decided Wednesday to hold short-term interest rates steady.
Following a one-day meeting of the Fed's policy-making Open Market Committee, the central bank indicated that its target for the key federal-funds interest rates, at which banks lend each other money overnight, remains 5.25%.
The vote to hold rates steady was 10-0.
In its policy statement, the Fed repeated the key statement that it could choose to move rates in either direction depending on the data even though inflation risks remain the paramount concern.
The Fed made only a few changes from its March 21 statement.
In a nod to the weak first quarter growth rate, the Fed said growth had slowed, and adjustments in housing were ongoing.
"Nevertheless, the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters," the statement said.
The Fed made no changes to its inflation outlook, saying that core inflation remains "somewhat elevated" and "although inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures."
The Fed hasn't made a move since last August, when it completed an unprecedented series of seventeen straight one-fourth of a percentage point rate hikes.
Many Fed watchers on Wall Street expect rates to remain unchanged at least through midyear and maybe much longer.
The central bank expects the economy to pick up on its own during the second half of the year, with a gradual ebbing of core inflation, and is likely to be patient to see if that forecast is correct.
"They think the economy will gradually recover. There is no reason to rush and do something [with rates], said Jim Glassman, economist at JP Morgan Chase.
Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said that the risks have grown on both sides of its forecast, meaning that growth could be lower and inflation higher.
The big question is whether the recent slowdown in the economy is the "pause that refreshes" or the start of a worrisome downward trend.
Real GDP grew only 1.3% at an annual rate in the first quarter and the outlook for consumer spending has worsened.
In addition, the April nonfarm payroll report was uniformly weak, with job growth at the slowest pace in nearly four years.
Added to the existing concern about the housing sector, the recent spike in gasoline prices has also complicated the outlook for spending.
Since January, U.S. pump gasoline prices, averaging all grades, have soared by 36% to $3 a gallon, according to Richard Berner, economist at Morgan Stanley.
One camp believes that this weakness may continue for a few more months, pushing the Fed off the sidelines with a rate cut.
Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, forecasts that the data between now and the next FOMC meeting on June 28 will be "substantially weaker on all fronts."
"If we're right, it would be reasonable to expect a serious shift in the Fed's stance at that meeting, followed by the first ease in August," Shepherdson said.
But some economists believe growth is not as weak, nor inflation as benign, as recent data suggest. They believe the next move by the central bank will be a rate hike.
John Ryding, chief U.S. economist at Bear Stearns, said his indicators of future inflation "point to a pickup in price pressures."
"In addition, there is evidence that the weather was a factor in the below-trend payroll reading for April," Ryding said.
Greg Robb is a senior reporter for MarketWatch in Washington.
http://tinyurl.com/283zef
Fed holds interest rates steady
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:24 PM ET May 9, 2007
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Federal Reserve, as had been broadly anticipated, decided Wednesday to hold short-term interest rates steady.
Following a one-day meeting of the Fed's policy-making Open Market Committee, the central bank indicated that its target for the key federal-funds interest rates, at which banks lend each other money overnight, remains 5.25%.
The vote to hold rates steady was 10-0.
In its policy statement, the Fed repeated the key statement that it could choose to move rates in either direction depending on the data even though inflation risks remain the paramount concern.
The Fed made only a few changes from its March 21 statement.
In a nod to the weak first quarter growth rate, the Fed said growth had slowed, and adjustments in housing were ongoing.
"Nevertheless, the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters," the statement said.
The Fed made no changes to its inflation outlook, saying that core inflation remains "somewhat elevated" and "although inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures."
The Fed hasn't made a move since last August, when it completed an unprecedented series of seventeen straight one-fourth of a percentage point rate hikes.
Many Fed watchers on Wall Street expect rates to remain unchanged at least through midyear and maybe much longer.
The central bank expects the economy to pick up on its own during the second half of the year, with a gradual ebbing of core inflation, and is likely to be patient to see if that forecast is correct.
"They think the economy will gradually recover. There is no reason to rush and do something [with rates], said Jim Glassman, economist at JP Morgan Chase.
Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said that the risks have grown on both sides of its forecast, meaning that growth could be lower and inflation higher.
The big question is whether the recent slowdown in the economy is the "pause that refreshes" or the start of a worrisome downward trend.
Real GDP grew only 1.3% at an annual rate in the first quarter and the outlook for consumer spending has worsened.
In addition, the April nonfarm payroll report was uniformly weak, with job growth at the slowest pace in nearly four years.
Added to the existing concern about the housing sector, the recent spike in gasoline prices has also complicated the outlook for spending.
Since January, U.S. pump gasoline prices, averaging all grades, have soared by 36% to $3 a gallon, according to Richard Berner, economist at Morgan Stanley.
One camp believes that this weakness may continue for a few more months, pushing the Fed off the sidelines with a rate cut.
Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, forecasts that the data between now and the next FOMC meeting on June 28 will be "substantially weaker on all fronts."
"If we're right, it would be reasonable to expect a serious shift in the Fed's stance at that meeting, followed by the first ease in August," Shepherdson said.
But some economists believe growth is not as weak, nor inflation as benign, as recent data suggest. They believe the next move by the central bank will be a rate hike.
John Ryding, chief U.S. economist at Bear Stearns, said his indicators of future inflation "point to a pickup in price pressures."
"In addition, there is evidence that the weather was a factor in the below-trend payroll reading for April," Ryding said.
Greg Robb is a senior reporter for MarketWatch in Washington.
http://tinyurl.com/283zef
Oldcoin
Member
http://www.tradethenews.com/chartcache/1-2007_05_09_16_18.md.gif
DJIA chart Tom talked about in the market thread,
actually......I was just trying to insert a graph
DJIA chart Tom talked about in the market thread,
actually......I was just trying to insert a graph
Last edited by a moderator:
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Why did retail sales get reported today? I thought they weren't suppose to come out till Friday. If I had known the report was coming out today, I would have gone into the F fund and not the C fund!
Oldcoin
Member
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES
March 2007
Goods and Services
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total March exports of $126.2 billion and imports of $190.1 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $63.9 billion, $6.0 billion more than the $57.9 billion in February, revised. March exports were $2.2 billion more than February exports of $124.0 billion. March imports were $8.2 billion more than February imports of $181.9 billion.
In March, the goods deficit increased $6.0 billion from February to $70.2 llion, and the services surplus was virtually unchanged at $6.3 billion. Exports of goods
increased $1.8 billion to $90.2 billion, and imports of goods increased $7.8 billion to $160.3 billion. Exports of services increased $0.4 billion to $36.1 billion, and imports of services increased $0.4 billion to $29.8 billion.
In March, the goods and services deficit was up $1.6 billion from March 2006. Exports were up $10.7 billion, or 9.2 percent, and imports were up $12.3 billion, or 6.9 percent.
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/trade/tradnewsrelease.htm
March 2007
Goods and Services
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total March exports of $126.2 billion and imports of $190.1 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $63.9 billion, $6.0 billion more than the $57.9 billion in February, revised. March exports were $2.2 billion more than February exports of $124.0 billion. March imports were $8.2 billion more than February imports of $181.9 billion.
In March, the goods deficit increased $6.0 billion from February to $70.2 llion, and the services surplus was virtually unchanged at $6.3 billion. Exports of goods
increased $1.8 billion to $90.2 billion, and imports of goods increased $7.8 billion to $160.3 billion. Exports of services increased $0.4 billion to $36.1 billion, and imports of services increased $0.4 billion to $29.8 billion.
In March, the goods and services deficit was up $1.6 billion from March 2006. Exports were up $10.7 billion, or 9.2 percent, and imports were up $12.3 billion, or 6.9 percent.
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/trade/tradnewsrelease.htm
Oldcoin
Member
Why did retail sales get reported today? I thought they weren't suppose to come out till Friday. If I had known the report was coming out today, I would have gone into the F fund and not the C fund!
The report should be issued on Friday. Today we have import/export and initial claims.
Where did you get your data?
350zCommTech
Well-known member
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/april-slide-retail-sales-worse/story.aspx?guid=%7B972C8768%2DEFEE%2D46D3%2DA584%2DA721B9501D86%7D
Easter egged April sales; most results miss
By Jennifer Waters, MarketWatch
Last Update: 9:08 AM ET May 10, 2007
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- April was largely a sales disaster for most of the nation's largest retail chain stores.
But it wasn't unexpected. Retailers raised flags well ahead of Thursday's results and investors grounded themselves long before that for what undoubtedly would be the weakest month, so far, of the year.
Though they may have crossed their fingers for an upside surprise here and there, investors knew -- and priced into the stocks -- that the sorry combination of poor weather, an early Easter and tough year-over-year comparisons would spell trouble for the final tab of same-store sales numbers in April.
weatherweenie
Well-known member
U.S. Producer Prices Rise 0.7% in April; Core Rate Unchanged
By Joe Richter
May 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. wholesale prices rose in April on higher costs for energy and food. Excluding food and fuel costs, prices were unchanged for the second month in a row.
Prices paid to factories, farmers and other producers rose 0.7 percent after a 1.0 percent gain in March, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The last time so-called core producer prices went two months without an increase was at the end of 2005.
The figures point to a gradual easing of price pressures that will allow Federal Reserve policy makers to keep interest rates steady, economists said. Companies may be reluctant to risk losing market share by charging more, which will limit consumer price pressures even as crude oil and raw materials costs rise, economist said.
``There's been a lot of volatility in energy prices, but it looks like things may be cooling down on core prices,'' Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York, said before the report. ``That's good news for the Fed.''
Economists had forecast producer prices would rise 0.6 percent, according to the median of 81 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from no change to an increase of 1.2 percent.
Core prices were projected to rise 0.2 percent last month, with estimates ranging from no change to a gain of 0.3 percent.
12-Month Change
Producer prices rose 3.2 percent from April 2006, the same as in the 12 months ended in March. Prices excluding food and energy rose 1.5 percent from a year earlier, compared with a 1.7 percent gain in the 12 months ended in March. They were projected to increase 1.8 percent from April 2006, according to the survey median.
Energy prices jumped 3.4 percent last month after increasing 3.6 percent the prior month. The price of gasoline rose 8.2 percent and natural gas costs rose 0.5 percent.
Crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange jumped to $66.46 a barrel on April 27, the highest closing price since September.
Today's report showed food prices rose 0.4 percent in April, after the previous month's 1.4 percent increase.
Intermediate Goods
Costs of intermediate goods, those used in earlier stages of production, rose 0.9 percent last month, after rising 1 percent the prior month. They were up 3.7 percent from a year ago.
Excluding food and energy, intermediate prices rose 0.8 percent after rising 0.2 percent. Compared with a year ago, core intermediate goods costs rose 3.6 percent.
Prices for raw materials, or so-called crude goods, fell 1.5 percent after a 3.2 percent increase the prior month.
Prices for passenger cars fell 1 percent after rising 0.2 percent the prior month. Costs of light trucks fell 0.5 percent after a 1.2 percent decrease.
The report showed prices for capital equipment rose 0.1 percent last month after a 0.1 percent decline the month before. Computer prices fell 1.8 percent after declining 2.6 percent.
The Fed this week kept its benchmark U.S. interest rate at 5.25 percent, and said inflation remains ``somewhat elevated.''
The central bank's preferred inflation measure is still above the comfort zone of a 1 percent to 2 percent gain cited by several policy makers including Chairman Ben S. Bernanke.
``The Fed is not off the hook yet when it comes to the inflation fight,'' Christopher Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in New York, said before the report. ``Rising energy prices have the potential to push up core inflation at the consumer level as businesses seek to pass along the rising costs of energy.''
UAL Corp.'s United Airlines, the world's second-largest carrier, this month raised by as much as $100 its round-trip fares that are most often bought for business travel, citing higher fuel costs.
Still, there are signs that pricing pressures may be abating.
Delta Air Lines Inc., Northwest Airlines Corp. and US Airways Group Inc. this month said they withdrew a $10 round-trip fare increase adopted because of higher fuel prices. American Airlines, Continental Airlines Inc. and United Airlines pulled back the higher prices only where they compete with low-fare carriers.
Costs ``are beginning to plateau,'' Clayton Daley, chief financial officer of Procter & Gamble Co., the largest U.S. consumer-goods maker, said in an interview. ``We are hoping we don't have to raise prices anymore.''
P&G raised prices for its Folgers Gourmet Selections brand coffee by 5 percent in January after its cost for arabica beans jumped 20 percent in the previous year. Duracell prices increased 6 percent the same month.
The producer price index is one of three monthly inflation gauges reported by the government. A government report yesterday showed prices of goods imported into the U.S. rose for a third month in April.
The Labor Department is forecast to report on May 15 that its consumer price index rose 0.5 percent April after a 0.6 percent gain in March, while core inflation rose 0.2 percent after a 0.1 percent gain, according to a Bloomberg survey median.
By Joe Richter
May 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. wholesale prices rose in April on higher costs for energy and food. Excluding food and fuel costs, prices were unchanged for the second month in a row.
Prices paid to factories, farmers and other producers rose 0.7 percent after a 1.0 percent gain in March, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The last time so-called core producer prices went two months without an increase was at the end of 2005.
The figures point to a gradual easing of price pressures that will allow Federal Reserve policy makers to keep interest rates steady, economists said. Companies may be reluctant to risk losing market share by charging more, which will limit consumer price pressures even as crude oil and raw materials costs rise, economist said.
``There's been a lot of volatility in energy prices, but it looks like things may be cooling down on core prices,'' Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York, said before the report. ``That's good news for the Fed.''
Economists had forecast producer prices would rise 0.6 percent, according to the median of 81 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from no change to an increase of 1.2 percent.
Core prices were projected to rise 0.2 percent last month, with estimates ranging from no change to a gain of 0.3 percent.
12-Month Change
Producer prices rose 3.2 percent from April 2006, the same as in the 12 months ended in March. Prices excluding food and energy rose 1.5 percent from a year earlier, compared with a 1.7 percent gain in the 12 months ended in March. They were projected to increase 1.8 percent from April 2006, according to the survey median.
Energy prices jumped 3.4 percent last month after increasing 3.6 percent the prior month. The price of gasoline rose 8.2 percent and natural gas costs rose 0.5 percent.
Crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange jumped to $66.46 a barrel on April 27, the highest closing price since September.
Today's report showed food prices rose 0.4 percent in April, after the previous month's 1.4 percent increase.
Intermediate Goods
Costs of intermediate goods, those used in earlier stages of production, rose 0.9 percent last month, after rising 1 percent the prior month. They were up 3.7 percent from a year ago.
Excluding food and energy, intermediate prices rose 0.8 percent after rising 0.2 percent. Compared with a year ago, core intermediate goods costs rose 3.6 percent.
Prices for raw materials, or so-called crude goods, fell 1.5 percent after a 3.2 percent increase the prior month.
Prices for passenger cars fell 1 percent after rising 0.2 percent the prior month. Costs of light trucks fell 0.5 percent after a 1.2 percent decrease.
The report showed prices for capital equipment rose 0.1 percent last month after a 0.1 percent decline the month before. Computer prices fell 1.8 percent after declining 2.6 percent.
The Fed this week kept its benchmark U.S. interest rate at 5.25 percent, and said inflation remains ``somewhat elevated.''
The central bank's preferred inflation measure is still above the comfort zone of a 1 percent to 2 percent gain cited by several policy makers including Chairman Ben S. Bernanke.
``The Fed is not off the hook yet when it comes to the inflation fight,'' Christopher Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in New York, said before the report. ``Rising energy prices have the potential to push up core inflation at the consumer level as businesses seek to pass along the rising costs of energy.''
UAL Corp.'s United Airlines, the world's second-largest carrier, this month raised by as much as $100 its round-trip fares that are most often bought for business travel, citing higher fuel costs.
Still, there are signs that pricing pressures may be abating.
Delta Air Lines Inc., Northwest Airlines Corp. and US Airways Group Inc. this month said they withdrew a $10 round-trip fare increase adopted because of higher fuel prices. American Airlines, Continental Airlines Inc. and United Airlines pulled back the higher prices only where they compete with low-fare carriers.
Costs ``are beginning to plateau,'' Clayton Daley, chief financial officer of Procter & Gamble Co., the largest U.S. consumer-goods maker, said in an interview. ``We are hoping we don't have to raise prices anymore.''
P&G raised prices for its Folgers Gourmet Selections brand coffee by 5 percent in January after its cost for arabica beans jumped 20 percent in the previous year. Duracell prices increased 6 percent the same month.
The producer price index is one of three monthly inflation gauges reported by the government. A government report yesterday showed prices of goods imported into the U.S. rose for a third month in April.
The Labor Department is forecast to report on May 15 that its consumer price index rose 0.5 percent April after a 0.6 percent gain in March, while core inflation rose 0.2 percent after a 0.1 percent gain, according to a Bloomberg survey median.
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