Economic News

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alh1B3aI8Bnc&refer=home

U.S. Payrolls Rose 180,000 in March; Jobless Rate at 4.4%

By Joe Richter
April 6 (Bloomberg) -- Hiring in the U.S. rose more than forecast and the jobless rate unexpectedly dropped, giving the economy a spark as it struggles to overcome slumps in housing and manufacturing.
The 180,000 increase in employment followed a 113,000 gain in February that was larger than previously estimated, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The jobless rate fell to 4.4 percent, matching October's five-year low.
New jobs and bigger paychecks are giving more Americans the means to spend, preventing the housing recession from spreading to the rest of the economy. The drop in the jobless rate may concern Federal Reserve policy makers who've said the threat of inflation is a bigger risk for the expansion.
``Jobs are plentiful and employers are giving fairly large wage increases,'' Robert Gay, managing director at Fenwick Advisers LLC in Rye, New York, and a former Fed economist, said before the report. ``Outside housing and manufacturing, the rest of the economy is doing pretty well and continuing to create jobs.''
Economists projected payrolls would rise by 130,000 following a previously reported 97,000 February increase, according to the median of 75 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. They also anticipated an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.6 percent.
Revisions for the previous two months showed employers added 32,000 more jobs than the Labor Department had earlier estimated.
Earnings
Workers' average hourly earnings rose 6 cents, or 0.3 percent, after a 0.4 percent increase the previous month. Economists expected a 0.3 percent increase in hourly wages. Earnings were up 4 percent from March last year.
``There's not a lot of deterioration in the labor market, despite the worries over the effects of the housing market,'' Michelle Girard, senior economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut, said before the report. ``The fact that the labor market is still tight means the hurdle for Fed easing rates is higher than a lot of people might think.''
Builders added 56,000 jobs after shedding 61,000 the prior month. The snap back is probably due to the return of more seasonable temperatures after cold weather played a role in the February drop, the Labor Department said.
Service industries, which include banking, insurance, restaurants and retailers, gained 137,000 workers last month after a 180,000 gain in February, the report showed. The increase was led by a 36,000 gain in retail employment that was the biggest since July 2005.
Manufacturing
Manufacturers' payrolls fell 16,000 last month after dropping 11,000 a month earlier. Economists expected manufacturers to eliminate 12,000 positions. The manufacturing workweek rose to 41.1 hours and overtime increased to 4.3 hours from 4.2 hours.
Average weekly hours worked by production workers increased to 33.9 from 33.8. Economists in the Bloomberg survey had forecast hours would rise to 33.8 from 33.7.
Average weekly earnings rose to $583.76 last month from $580.01 in February.
``We continue to see modest growth and stability in the labor market,'' Steve Pogorzelski president of Monster International Worldwide, said in an interview on April 4. ``Employers continue to report they're concerned about turnover, driven by opportunities to make more money'' in other jobs.
The report is in line with others in recent weeks that suggested the labor market was holding up.
Other Surveys
ADP Employer Services said companies added 106,000 jobs last month after a 65,000 gain in February. The ADP data are based only on a count of private payrolls that exclude government workers.
A Conference Board survey released last week showed the share of Americans who said jobs are plentiful rose last month to the highest since August 2001. First-time claims for unemployment benefits also showed companies are holding on to workers.
``It's hard to find enough people to grow the way we want,'' said John Milligan, chief operating officer of Foster City, California-based Gilead Sciences Inc., the world's second-biggest seller of HIV drugs behind GlaxoSmithKline Plc, in an interview last month.
Other businesses are trying to trim costs by reducing staff. Milpitas, California-based Solectron Corp., the world's second- largest maker of electronics for other companies, said last week it may cut as many as 1,500 jobs as it consolidates facilities in North America and Europe.
Fed
Federal Reserve policy makers were counting on jobs and wages to keep consumers and the economy afloat.
``The continuing increases in employment, together with some pickup in real wages, have helped sustain consumer spending,'' Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said during Congressional testimony last week. ``Growth in consumer spending should continue to support the economic expansion in coming quarters.''
Bernanke also said interest-rate policy was still aimed at combating inflation, which central bankers considered a bigger risk to the economy. Still, ``uncertainties have risen, and therefore a little more flexibility might be desirable.''
 
The evil credit cards.

Consumers Borrowed Less Freely in February, but Pace of Credit Card Spending Rose

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumers increased their borrowing in February at the slowest pace in four months. The Federal Reserve reported Friday that consumer borrowing rose at an annual rate of just 1.5 percent in February. That was down from a 3.3 percent growth rate in January and marked the smallest increase since October.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070406/consumer_credit.html?.v=8
 
After the shortened week we start the week relatively slow, as far as economic reports go. That doesn’t mean that the markets will follow in the same fashion. On Friday we got a jobs report was much better than expected and traders have had a long weekend to digest the news. Right now futures traders have the markets up and the Asian markets are doing quite well. The downside to the jobs report is that it did have indications of inflation and does not provide any motivation for the Fed to lower rates. So we’ll see how it plays out Monday.

On April 11 the FOMC minutes will be released. Since Bernakle has been out speaking since the meeting I think the minutes might be anticlimactic. We’ll see. Of course on Friday the 13th and Core PPI and PPI will be released, I hope this isn’t a omen for how the numbers come out. The prior release was .4% and 1.3% and the market expects .2% and .7%. Here are your links to the calendars;

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200715.html
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

Fed Bank Presidents speaking this week are Charles Plosser on Tuesday and Lacker and Mokow on Wednesday.

We do have the initial 1st quarter earnings results starting next week. Some of the big names starting off are Alcoa, Genetech and GE. I have been told that many traders key in on Alcoa for a read on the health of U.S. and International markets. Your link to the earnings releases;

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Private/Calendars/EarningsCalendarWeek2.htm

Finally, Bull and Bear wise indicator slipped last week from 58.21 to 55.22. Check it out here;

http://www.bullandbearwise.com/
 
FOMC changed March 22 wording to gain flexibility

By Greg Robb
Last Update: 2:00 PM ET Apr 11, 2007



WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. Federal Reserve members were very uncertain about the economic outlook and changed their policy statement to gain more flexibility to respond to the incoming data, according to the minutes of the March 20-21 meeting released Wednesday. "The FOMC agreed that further policy firming might prove necessary to foster lower inflation, but in light of increased uncertainty about the outlook for both growth and inflation, the FOMC also agreed that the statement should no longer cite only the possibility of further firming," the FOMC minutes stated. "Instead the statement should indicate that future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information," the minutes said.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...6-6CAE-4F67-ABF2-4E9431122AD8}&dist=MorePulse

Does this sound like stagflation or what? So, what does this tell us about the big run up in the market on March 22?
 
Here are our economic calendars for next week. We do have some important reports being released next week, but the way the market shrugs them off it makes tracking them sometimes a moot point. However, I will not be deterred!

On Monday we have retail sales released which rates a A- for importance. Also is the NY Empire State and Business Inventories. Tuesday follows up with the biggie CPI and Core CPI releases and Housing Starts. Finally on Thursday we have initial claims.

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200716.html

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

Who’s speaking? On Monday William Poole and Charles Plosser both Fed Bank Pres. Tuesday we have Plosser again and Timothy Geithner FOMC voting member. Thursday Janet Yellen Fed Bank Pres will speak.

What will no doubt overshadow economic reports next week will be the earnings releases for next week. We cover the whole gambit of industries. IBM, Intel and Yahoo for the tech sector Washington Mutual, Dow Jones and Wells Fargo for Finance. Wells Fargo was a large sub prime lender, we’ll see if it has any impact on the bottom line. Johnson & Johnson and American Greetings will indicate retail sales. The list is very long.

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Private/Calendars/EarningsCalendarWeek2.htm

Bull and Bear Wise stayed at 55.22 last week.

http://www.bullandbearwise.com/

Finally (the crowd roars with glee) next week is tax week, :nuts:
 
U.S. March Retail Sales Rise 0.7%, Boosting Economy (Update3)
By Shobhana Chandra

April 16 (Bloomberg) -- Retail sales in the U.S. rose in March by the most in three months as rising incomes and better weather ensured consumers would continue to drive economic growth.

The 0.7 percent increase followed a revised 0.5 percent gain the prior month that was larger than previously estimated, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Purchases excluding automobiles rose 0.8 percent.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aO.NDVnSPKj0&refer=home
 
Greenspan Says Global Growth to Cushion U.S. Economy (Update4)
By Jason Clenfield

April 16 (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan played down his earlier concern about a possible U.S. recession, saying the world economy would provide a cushion, according to people attending a forum in Tokyo today.

Greenspan said growth in the rest of the world is creating demand for services from companies such as Microsoft Corp., according to Vaseehar Hassan Abdul Razack, chairman of Kuala Lumpur-based RHB Islamic Bank Bhd, who attended the meeting, hosted by Nomura Research Institute Ltd. Greenspan was speaking via satellite from Washington.

Greenspan in late February and early March predicted that U.S. economic growth might stagnate, a view at odds with those of Ben S. Bernanke, his successor, and other Fed officials. In a March 5 interview, Greenspan said there's a ``one-third probability'' of a recession this year and the current expansion wouldn't have the staying power of its decade-long predecessor.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUgT_pMx_i0M&refer=home
 
U.S. Homebuilder Confidence Index Falls to 33 in April From 36
By Courtney Schlisserman

April 16 (Bloomberg) -- An index of U.S. homebuilders' confidence fell to the lowest level of the year this month amid concern that an increase in mortgage defaults is resulting in tighter lending standards that are discouraging would-be buyers.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of sentiment fell to 33 from 36 in March, the Washington-based association said today. A reading below 50 means most respondents view conditions as poor.

According to today's report, single-family home sales have fallen this month and builders' outlooks for the next six months are at the lowest level since October. That, along with rising defaults on subprime mortgages and excess inventory levels, suggests a greater drag on construction this year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aI0OJt_rd2wI&refer=home
 
ECONOMIC REPORT
CPI rises 0.6% on higher energy costs
Core retail-level inflation for March up 0.1%, below expectations


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumer prices increased 0.6% in March, the biggest increase since last April, led by energy costs, the Labor Department said Tuesday.

The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 0.1% last month.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected the CPI to rise 0.7% in March, after rising 0.4% in February. The core rate was expected to rise 0.2% for the second straight month.

In the past 12 months, the CPI has risen 2.8%, up from 2.4% in February. The core CPI is up 2.5% over the past year. This is above the Fed's presumed comfort zone. Fed officials have said higher inflation remains their predominant concern, although worries about a sharper-than-expected slowdown have increased over the past few months.

There were glimmers of good news on inflation. Over the last three months, the core rate of inflation rose 2.3%. This is down from a 2.6% rise for all of 2006. The moderation reflects a slower advance in the index for shelter.

http://tinyurl.com/29duh5
 
IRWIN KELLNER
Food for thought
Commentary: Consumers feel all inflation, not just the core number
PrintE-mailDisable live quotesRSSDigg itDel.icio.usBy Dr. Irwin Kellner, MarketWatch
Last Update: 5:40 AM ET Apr 17, 2007


HEMPSTEAD, N.Y. (MarketWatch) -- If you exclude food and energy from the price indexes, you might wind up with little or no increase -- but you'll also have little or no understanding of what's happening to inflation out there in the real world and what it's doing to the economy.

For about 35 years -- following the lead of Arthur Burns, the then-chairman of the Federal Reserve -- whenever the inflation figures were released, economists both in and out of government routinely removed prices of food and energy in order to uncover the "core," or underlying, rate of inflation.
This exercise seemed reasonable for a while, since both food and energy prices are volatile. They rise and fall for reasons having little or nothing to do with the state of the economy -- not to mention the posture of monetary and fiscal policy.

The demand and supply for both food and energy can be heavily influenced by the weather, as you might have guessed. For their part, energy supplies can also be affected by geopolitical developments.
Neither the weather nor geopolitics can be influenced by policymakers -- at least not in the short run. But this does not mean that what happens to food and energy prices should be ignored.

Food and energy together account for over 25% of consumers' spending. Since both are necessities, when their prices rise sharply, it drains buying power that people might spend on other goods and services. Guess what? This is exactly what's happening now. Prices farmers get for foods are up more than 10% so far this year, while gasoline prices have risen for 11 straight weeks and are now at their highest levels since Labor Day. See March 20 column.

Soaring food and energy prices are the reason why consumer confidence is sliding, and why retail sales, excluding the effects of higher gasoline prices (which push up their dollar value) are softer than merchants had expected, thus causing retail inventories to rise.

Another point worth noting is that since food and energy are purchased literally every day, when their prices jump, it heightens people's awareness of inflation and causes them to factor it into the decisions they make -- including their wage demands.

One financial writer at a major newspaper wrote the other day that prices at the wholesale level were flat in March. He was misled because he looked at this index excluding food and energy.

However, the financial markets aren't fooled. They've boosted yields on the 10-year Treasury over the last couple of weeks. Even more important, the Treasury-TIPS spread has jumped sharply since the beginning of this year.
When this spread goes up, it means that investors are buying Treasury Inflation Protected Securities to protect themselves against inflation. This pushes these TIPS' prices up, and thus their yield down compared with the plain-vanilla 10-year note.

This spread is now at its highest point since the middle of 2006 - when the Fed was still raising interest rates. Along with the state of inflation as those of us in the real world see it, it's the reason why I think the Fed's not done, when it comes to hiking interest rates.

Dr. Irwin Kellner is chief economist for MarketWatch. He also is the Weller professor of economics at Hofstra University and chief economist for North Fork Bank.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={A75F9677-2C94-4159-B17A-4FFCFCFFE64F}
 
Philadelphia Fed's Factory Index Is Unchanged at 0.2 (Update2)
By Shobhana Chandra

April 19 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region stalled this month as shipments slowed and orders languished.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index was unchanged at 0.2 in April from March, the bank said today. A positive number signals expansion. The index averaged 8.1 last year.

The report reinforces concern that an extended slowdown in manufacturing will further sap an economy already hobbled by a slump in housing. Federal Reserve policy makers meeting last month cited weakness in business spending as a risk to their outlook for a pickup in the economy later this year.

``Manufacturing activity is still pretty flat,'' said David Sloan, senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York. ``This is consistent with fairly sluggish growth. Demand isn't particularly strong, and I don't think the picture will change much in the next couple of months.''

Economists expected the Philadelphia index to rise to 2, the median of 53 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from minus 5 to 10.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVRT8xhLEU8A&refer=home
 
Explaining the Mystery of Why Housing Jobs Have Not Fallen Much...and the Worsening Housing Recession...

Nouriel Roubini | Apr 17, 2007

The second argument, that I have presented before, is that undocumented construction workers (many "illegal" ones) were essential in many housing markets (up to 30% of employment in some of these markets) and these undocumented workers - that are the first ones to be laid off - are not recorded in the official employment statistics, not when they are hired and not when they are fired. The New York Times today has a front page article - titled Housing Slump Takes a Toll on Illegal Immigrants - presenting this case; and the Washington Post had a similar story two months ago. In addition to "undocumented" workers many construction contractors work for "cash" as a way to avoid tax-reporting. Thus, this category of real estate workers is also not well documented in official data. Thus, in this view, real estate employment has already fallen quite sharply (and actual - as opposed to recorded - productivity has not fallen much) but it is not yet recorded in the data. In this view - however - continued downturn in housing will lead home builders to start laying off even recorded workers after the undocumented ones are mostly out. So we will start to see soon the fall in actual and measured housing employment in the months to come.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/189892/

I was wondering why the labor stats came in the way they did; this is as good a hypotheses that I’ve read. I usually take Nouriel with a grain (or two) of salt, but he does make a compelling argument.
 
Weekly Economic Letter
U.S: the probability of a recession is higher than consensus estimates
Wed, 18 Apr 2007 08:39:09 GMT

by Economic and Strategy Team
National Bank of Canada

Summary
• So far, there have been only 185k real estate sector-related job losses in the U.S. We estimate that there could be as many as 800,000 more.
• Furthermore, we are also seeing a slowdown in business investment in machinery and equipment (IME). In fact IME, which is typically a key driver of economic expansion, risks slipping technically into recession levels.
• The real estate sector implosion and slowing business investment have pushed the U.S. job market’s prospects to their worst levels in years.
• We thus believe that our estimate that there is a 40% chance that the U.S. economy will slip into recession, is fully justified and the Wall Street economists’ consensus estimate (which assigns a 25% chance of a recession) is overly optimistic. Even the Maestro, Alan Greenspan, is more pessimistic than the current consensus.

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-and-economic-letter/2007-04-18.html

Seems the Canadians are keeping an eye on us, as they and the rest of the world should. I have been getting more optimistic because corporate profits seem to be maintaining positive levels. We may not achieve the fabled soft landing, but it might not be as rough as I thought earlier this year. A 40% chance of recession seems high.
 
Next week the earnings reporting from corporations will continue to overshadow our economic reports. Traders will be paying attention to GDP which is set for release on the 26th. Also of importance this week are existing and new home sales. Since the housing market is in the dumps poor numbers may not have a very big impact. Conversely good number could give the market a lift. Initial claims will give an insight to the employment picture and whether it continues to hold up. Here are your links to the economic calendars:

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200717.html.

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

Only one speaking engagement recorded this week and that is Janet Yellen on the 26th.

Big time earnings are due out next week and several are DOW components; Boeing, Dupont, Microsoft, AT&T and Exxon Mobile will report.

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Private/Calendars/EarningsCalendarWeek2.htm

Finally Bull and Bear Wise index slipped to 47.76 last week with poorer numbers on Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization.

http://www.bullandbearwise.com/
 
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has issued the following news release today:

Newly available data on the industry distribution of real GDP growth show that the private services-producing sector accelerated to 4.1 percent in 2006, up from 3.7 percent in 2005, and that the private goods-producing sector accelerated to 2.5 percent, up from 2.1 percent in 2005.

The full text of the release on BEA's web site can be found at
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/industry/gdpindustry/gdpindnewsrelease.htm
 
Private Goods and Private Services Sectors Accelerated in 2006

Advance Estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Industry

Newly available data on the industry distribution of real GDP growth show that the private services-producing sector accelerated to 4.1 percent in 2006, up from 3.7 percent in 2005, and that the private goods-producing sector accelerated to 2.5 percent, up from 2.1 percent in 2005. Real growth in government slowed slightly to 0.6 percent, down from 0.7 percent in 2005.

The private services sector’s acceleration reflected more rapid growth in “finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing” that offset slower growth in retail trade, information, and “professional and business services.” Private goods-sector growth accelerated due to more rapid growth in durable-goods manufacturing and “agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting” and smaller decreases in mining and nondurable-goods manufacturing.

Real growth in manufacturing accelerated to 3.3 percent in 2006 after increasing 2.2 percent in 2005. This acceleration largely reflected stronger real growth in durable-goods manufacturing of 6.7 percent in 2006, up from 4.9 percent in the previous year. In 2006, durable-goods manufacturing accounted for 6.9 percent of the economy, but accounted for 13.6 percent of real GDP growth.

The numbers released today relate to 2006, which I hope we all know was a good year. I hate to say it, but I do see some problems for GDP in ’07. Based on the information it appears that private services sector accelerated to help push up the numbers for ’06. Two of the areas are finance and real estate and we know that these areas have been suffering the last two quarters. They could have a significant impact on the first quarters GDP numbers. Oldcoin
 
Ben Bernanke Speaks! Wednesday - Apr 25, 2007

10:00 AM ET : Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to open event on financial literacy at a Washington, DC high school. No Q&A .
 
Highlights
As expected, the Bank of Canada left its policy interest rate at 4.25 percent for the 12 time. The Bank last increased its rate in May 2006 when it raised it to its current level. Fourth quarter gross domestic product was up 0.4 percent and 2.3 percent when compared with the same quarter a year ago. Continued strength in business investment, non-residential structures and equipment, and a rebound in exports contributed to that quarter's growth. But geographically, growth has been stronger in the commodity intensive west rather than the industrial east. This can pose a problem for the Bank of Canada in determining interest rates.

In its statement, the Bank said

"Growth of the Canadian economy has been essentially in line with the Bank's expectations as set out in the January Monetary Policy Report Update. But inflation has been higher than expected. Pressures on capacity over the past year have been stronger than previously judged. Also, food and gasoline prices have recently risen more than expected. After considering the full range of indicators, the Bank now judges that the Canadian economy was operating just above its production capacity in the first quarter of this year.
 
Sales of existing homes plunge 8.4% in March

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Sales of existing homes plunged 8.4% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.12 million, the lowest in nearly four years, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. It was the largest percentage decline in sales since January 1989. Economists were expecting sales to fall to 6.45 million. The median price of an existing home fell 0.3% year-over-year to $217,000. The inventory of unsold homes on the market fell 1.6% to 3.75 million, representing a 7.3-month supply. Sales of condos were unchanged, while sales of single-family homes dropped 9.5%. Sales fell in all four regions. "This number reflects subprime lending" as well as the cold weather in February, said David Lereah, chief economist for the real estate group.

http://tinyurl.com/32x34x
 
Highlights
Consumer confidence fell and inflation expectations rose in April, a reflection of high gas prices and a bad combination that hints at slowing growth ahead. The Conference Board's index fell 4.2 percentage points in the month to 104.0 while 12-month inflation expectations rose 3 tenths to 5.2 percent.

Among sub-components, current conditions fell back sharply in the month but, in a negative, are still far ahead of expectations. Jobs readings were weak with more saying jobs are hard to get (20.4 percent vs. 18.9 percent) and less saying they are plentiful (27.8 percent 30.3 percent).

The data were released along with a sharp drop in existing home sales, both pointing to economic weakness. Treasuries, despite the rise in inflation expectations, firmed in reaction to the 10:00 results while stocks eased. The dollar was little changed.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell back sharply in March while inflation expectations picked back up. The Conference Board's index fell to 107.2 in March from February's 111.2. Since the March reading, the stock market has improved and may boost confidence but gasoline prices also have been rising and could push confidence in the other direction. Subprime lending issues remain but have not had as much media play and that could be less of a negative for confidence.

Consumer confidence Consensus Forecast for April 07: 105.0
Range: 103.0 to 107.5

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
 
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