Economic News

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTBKCR/downloaddata?&cid=23

Download Data for Series: TOTBKCR, Bank Credit of All Commercial Banks

Interesting data source for commercial bank credit. Data goes back to 1973. What I found interesting is that there is a large drop in the last entry. I charted the last year and the drop is impressive. I’m not sure if this is a data error or the beginning of a trend. I think additional data will be needed to determine if this is a trend or anomaly.
 
Economic View

Q1 GDP Expected at Sub-2% Pace

Last Update: 28-Mar-07 11:23 ET

The economic news has taken a turn for the worse in early 2007. Outside of the risk of sub-prime mortgage defaults and the return of volatility to the equity markets, the weakness in business investment now adds to the drag from housing to leave our early estimate for Q1 growth in the 1% to 2% range. Slowed growth leads to dampened business confidence, which shows itself in business investment, which is the heart of manufacturing activity. Imports may be strong enough to leave another drag from trade after the boost in Q4. The outlook brightens over the second half of the year as the drag from housing lightens. Hopefully, the stronger growth will boost business confidence and demand for capital goods to offer support for manufacturing.

• Early estimates suggest Q1 GDP near 1.5% -- the weakest in four years.
• Business investment is expected to show a larger decline than Q4's -2.4%.
• Housing drag continues and compares to the -1% average drag over the last 3 quarters.
• The positive Q4 contribution from trade is likely to return to a drag given import lift.
• Consumer spending is expected at 3%.
• Early estimates are just that. We haven't even seen February figures for most of the components.
• Four of the last 5 quarters below the 3% estimate for potential growth. That is key for cooling inflation.
• The Fed looks for sub-3% potential growth in 2007 and 2008.
• Lightening housing drag and hopes for a return of manufacturing demand drive stronger growth in second half of 2007.

http://tinyurl.com/2xc6pn
 
ECONOMIC REPORT

U.S. fourth-quarter GDP revised up to 2.5%
Corporate profits fall for first time in 5 quarters

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy grew at a 2.5% annual pace in the final three months of 2006, slightly faster than the previous estimate of 2.2%, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

The upward revision to gross domestic product mainly reflected higher prices for trucks that boosted vehicle inventories. Investments in software were revised slightly lower.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting the 2.2% estimate to be unrevised. The economy grew 2% in the third quarter.

It was the third straight quarter with slower growth than the economy's long-term potential of about 3%. Economists expect another quarter of below-trend growth in the current quarter as well.

http://tinyurl.com/2yewjx
 
ECONOMIC REPORT
Initial jobless claims lowest since mid-January

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in more than two months in the week ending March 24, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

Seasonally adjusted initial claims fell by 10,000 to 308,000.

The four-week average of new claims -- which economists consider a better gauge of underlying activity because it smoothes out one-time events such as holidays and weather -- fell by 7,250 to 316,750.

The initial-claims figure is the lowest since Jan. 13, while the four-week average is the lowest since Feb. 3.

Meanwhile, the number of people collecting unemployment checks rose by 32,000 to 2.52 million in the week ending March 17, the highest since March 3.

http://tinyurl.com/yvs93s
 
Looking at the data from BEA it is interesting to note that the changes in GDP from the prior period were not all that significant except in a couple of areas. As we all expected residential construction decreased significantly from 8.6 to -4.2. This was partially offset by construction in the non-residential structures that went from 1.1 to 9.0. This number was also helped, no doubt by a weaker dollar, by a jump in export goods from 7.5 to 10.5.

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

Jobless numbers came in strong again today. This could be a concern for the Fed if we start to see a raise in wages because of scarcity; this would be inflationary and could impact on future interest rate decisions. But this situation is much better than what we had in the 70’s with stagflation.

So that’s the look backward, concerns now are over the 1st quarter GDP which could be weaker than expected. We’ll have to wait until the end of April to get those numbers.
 
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist says US recession risks rising

DAYTON, Ohio (MarketWatch) -- Goldman Sachs' top economist believes the odds of a full on U.S. economic downturn have risen.

"There are a lot of credible arguments" that suggest the U.S. economy could soon face a recession, said Jan Hatzius, Goldman's chief economist. He was speaking as part of a panel discussion at the RISE Forum held at the University of Dayton in Ohio Thursday.

The forecaster noted that the size of the housing market and the trouble it now faces is comparable to the stock market bubble of the late 1990s and early part of this decade. Meanwhile, "the economy is already pretty weak" and periods of protracted subpar growth are a particularly vulnerable period for any expansion, he said.

Add to that, "inflation is still too high from the Fed's perspective," which limits the central bank's willingness to cut interest rates to help boost growth, Hatzius said.

The economist's comments came on a day when the government reported upwardly revised data for the fourth quarter gross domestic product. But even with the upward revision, U.S. GDP only grew by a 2.5% annualized rate, a level most policy makers consider below the economy's potential.

http://tinyurl.com/24fg4r
 
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTBKCR/downloaddata?&cid=23

What I found interesting is that there is a large drop in the last entry. I charted the last year and the drop is impressive. I’m not sure if this is a data error or the beginning of a trend. I think additional data will be needed to determine if this is a trend or anomaly.

Note to self.....read footnotes first :D

Due to the conversion of a commercial bank to a thrift during the week ending March 14, 2007, the assets of the commercial bank universe shrunk by approximately $98.6 billion. The major asset items affected were (in billions): Treasury and Agency securities, $3.0; other securities, $9.2; revolving home equity, $14.2; other residential real estate, $66.4; security loans, $0.2; interbank loans, $3.3; cash assets, $0.8; and other assets, 1.6. The major liability items affected were: transaction deposits, $2.0; ntransaction, large time deposits, $11.4; nontransaction, other deposits, $44.8; borrowings from others, $30.3; other liabilities, $2.4; and the residual (assets less liabilities), $8.5. The memo item affected was mortgage-backed securities, $11.8.

So.....were cool right? :embarrest:
 
Spotlight
March 2007


William C. Powers Discusses PIMCO’s Cyclical Outlook and Global Strategy

William C. Powers
Managing Director and Senior Member of PIMCO’s Portfolio Management and Investment Strategy Groups

Q: How are the conclusions from the March Forum influencing PIMCO’s views on the timing of Fed easing?

Powers: The Fed is giving the U.S. economy every benefit of the doubt. It sees moderating growth from weaker housing and autos as a virtue because of the potential benefits of lower inflation. Considering the Fed’s risk-management perspective, we thought a deteriorating economy would be a bigger risk than the Fed would accept given the risks of a recession in a low rate environment. However, the Fed is concerned that core inflation has not fallen into their 1% to 2% comfort zone at any time during the last three years and that unemployment is 4.5%, suggesting limited slack in the economy and the potential for sticky inflation at high levels. Thus, the bar is set very high for a Fed ease and we are persuaded that June is too soon for an ease. Unless the recent market turmoil progresses, the Fed will be on hold until August.

By August, the Fed will have five more months of employment data, which we believe will reflect deteriorating employment conditions due to the slowing housing market and a reversal of the positive effect of warm weather in November, December and January. The Fed will be more comfortable easing when the core PCE deflator is below the 2% high end of its comfort zone and when unemployment is closer to 5%.

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/PIMCO+Spotlight/2007/Spotlight+Powers+March+2007.htm

Very good read. Hope this guy is right.
 
Temporary Open Market Operations








Deal Date: Thursday, March 29, 2007
Delivery Date: Thursday, March 29, 2007
Maturity Date: Friday, March 30, 2007
Type of Operation1: Repo
Settlement: Same Day
Term of Operation2: 1 Day
Operation Close Time: 09:40 AM


Results Amount ($B) Rate (%)
Collateral Type Submitted Accepted Stop-Out3 Weighted
Average4 High Low
Treasury 25.750 8.000 5.28
5.283
5.29
5.22

Agency 12.400 0.000 N/A
N/A
5.32
5.26

Mortgage-Backed 11.350 0.000 N/A
N/A
5.33
5.30

Total 49.500 8.000






Deal Date: Thursday, March 29, 2007
Delivery Date: Thursday, March 29, 2007
Maturity Date: Thursday, April 12, 2007
Type of Operation1: Repo
Settlement: Same Day
Term of Operation2: 14 Days
Operation Close Time: 08:30 AM


Results Amount ($B) Rate (%)
Collateral Type Submitted Accepted Stop-Out3 Weighted
Average4 High Low
Treasury 12.500 2.917 5.17
5.178
5.20
5.05

Agency 9.050 3.607 5.25
5.259
5.27
5.20

Mortgage-Backed 15.050 3.476 5.27
5.277
5.28
5.24

Total 36.600 10.000
 
Note to self.....read footnotes first :D

Due to the conversion of a commercial bank to a thrift during the week ending March 14, 2007, the assets of the commercial bank universe shrunk by approximately $98.6 billion.
It really begs the question....who converted?

Countrywide gets OK to operate as federal savings bank

The Office of Thrift Supervision has approved the application from California-based Countrywide Financial Corp. to convert its national bank subsidiary, which is based in Northern Virginia, to a federal thrift charter.

http://www.bizjournals.com/albuquerque/stories/2007/03/05/daily17.html

Had to go to a New Mexico paper to get the info.
 
"Last Word"-The Supply of Sales Reps Is Dwindling

Thursday, March 29, 2007
SUSIE GHARIB: And finally, if you're looking to hire sales representatives for your business, good luck. A new survey by Manpower shows those employees are among the most-sought after workers in the country and those jobs are the hardest to fill. Teachers, mechanics, technicians, and managers are also among the top five hard to fill spots. Also on the list, truck and delivery drivers, accountants, laborers and machine operators. The Manpower employment services company surveyed more than 2,400 U.S. employers last month. Forty one percent said they're having trouble hiring people because of a lack of available talent.
Some of the jobs that fell off the list this year Paul, nurses and healthcare workers.
KANGAS: Well, if you can find them without a problem, that's great news.
GHARIB: They didn't say anything about TV news anchors.

www.nbr.com
 
Higher inflation, slower spending in February

http://tinyurl.com/2rd68c

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Core consumer prices increased at the fastest pace in six months during February, even as consumer spending slowed to the weakest in six months, according to government data released Friday. The core personal consumption price index rose 0.3% in February, the biggest gain since August, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Core inflation matched economists' expectations. On a year-over-year basis, core inflation ticked up to 2.4% from 2.2%, moving further away from the Fed's comfort zone of around 2%. Real (inflation-adjusted) consumer spending growth slowed to 0.2%, the weakest gain since August. In February, personal incomes rose 0.6% in nominal terms after a 1% gain in January.
 
Yesterday I posted that I felt the rally yesterday may have been caused by an injection of cash from the Fed. In my wanderings around the internet I noticed that many are calling it window dressing; either way you slice it you have to ask yourself if the momentum will follow through and continue into subsequent days.
 
Highlights

Today's personal income report looks healthy on the income side but inflation is disconcerting and spending has some questionable detail. Personal income rose a robust 0.6 percent in February, following a 1.0 percent spike in January. February's figure was above the market projection for a 0.3 percent increase in personal income. The wages & salaries component advanced 0.4 percent, following a 1.2 percent surge in January. January's jump was largely due to January increases in government worker salaries and due to private sector bonuses. Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.6 percent, following a 0.5 percent gain in January. The consensus had forecast a 0.3 percent rise in consumer spending. Curiously, all on the spending increase was in services. Durables and nondurables were flat in February.

On the inflation front, the overall PCE deflator rose 0.4 percent in February, following a 0.2 percent increase the month before. The core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) firmed further to 0.3 percent, following a 0.2 percent increase in January. The market had forecast a 0.2 percent rise in the core PCE price index. The unrounded percent change for the core PCE price index was 0.40625, compared to 0.19093 in January. Today's report.

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
 
ECONOMIC REPORT
Chicago index shows biggest gain ever
At 61.7%, purchasing managers index shows conditions improving

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Business conditions improved markedly in the Chicago region in March, according to a closely watched business barometer.

The Chicago purchasing managers index rose to 61.7% from 47.9% in February, the NAPM-Chicago reported Friday.

It was the largest month-to-month gain in the 39-year history of the index. It's the highest reading since April 2005.

Economists were expecting an increase to about 50%, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.

Readings over 50% indicate a majority of firms in the region reported improving conditions.

http://tinyurl.com/3a3rqv

It’s good to have good news. :D
 
AP
Fed Chief Speaks on Access to Credit
Friday March 30, 12:48 pm ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer

Fed Chief Says Mortgage Troubles Show Widespread Access to Credit Not Always Good
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Troubles plaguing lenders and borrowers with risky mortgages may challenge the notion that widespread access to credit is always a good thing, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested Friday

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070330/bernanke.html?.v=4
 
How about that US Dollar? As some of you might know my wife is on vacation in Spain. Talked to her this morning, she said that she exchanged Dollars for EUROs yesterday at a rate of $.68 (US$) and some change for 1 EURO. They add a charge on top of the exchange rate for processing the transaction. today the exchange rate is:

$1 -------=---- 0.7471
US Dollar---------Euro
1 USD = 1 USD
1 EUR = 1.3384 USD

This is SAD! The Almighty Dollar is taking a beating. She got a little over 680 Euro for $1000 US. DAMNIT!!!!:nuts: :nuts: :nuts: :nuts:

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexconverter&btn=go&elists=1%7C3%7C7&elists=2%7C7&email=Enter+Your+Email+Address+Here&curcode1=USD&amount=1&curcode2=EUR&symbol=&go.x=57&go.y=12
 
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,21485454-664,00.html#

A TRADE row between the United States and China over paper imports threatens to escalate and impact American sales of Chinese steel and textiles.
A Bush administration decision at the weekend to tax imports of coated paper from China caused Beijing's Commerce Ministry to threaten a tough response.
Chinese industry will be severely damaged by the US tariffs, Commerce Ministry spokesman Wang Xinpei said.
"It's unacceptable and China strongly demands the US reconsider the decision."
The dollar weakened 0.2 per cent to $1.3358 against the euro in New York and declined 0.2 per cent to the 117.84 yen amid speculation of a looming reduction in US-China trade.
The US action occurred as the country's lawmakers, vexed by a record $US232.5 billion ( $A287.5 million) trade deficit with China, prepare to consider stiffer measures aimed at fighting what many call the nation's weak currency, subsidies and other allegedly unfair trade practices.
 
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