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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Economic News
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
Consumer sentiment falls below expectations
NEW YORK - U.S. consumer sentiment dropped more than expected in early August, registering its lowest reading since the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, a report showed on Friday, as inflation expectations rose. The University of Michigan's preliminary reading of consumer sentiment in August was 78.7, down from July's final reading of 84.7, said sources who saw the subscription-only report. The median forecast of Wall Street economists polled by Reuters was 83.6. U.S. stocks fell while government debt prices rose after the data. The dollar fell against the euro and the yen.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060818/bs_nm/economy_consumers_sentiment_dc_2
The_Technician
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 15
Moskow of the Fed thinks.... rates have room to rise in Sept........
http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/22/news/economy/moskow.reut/index.htm
Oldcoin
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 12
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1fJS2KdMZWU&refer=home
U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall 4.1% in July to 6.33 Mln Rate
No surprise here, all I have to do is walk around my neighborhood. Lots of houses up for sale and no buyers.
qibovin
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 6
The United States is headed for a recession that will be "much nastier, deeper and more protracted" than the 2001 recession, says Nouriel Roubini, president of Roubini Global Economics.:worried:
"This is the biggest housing slump in the last four or five decades: every housing indictor is in free fall, including now housing prices."
---
Fed watcher Tim Duy called Roubini the "the current archetypical Eeyore."
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/9mQrL6tbQK62XTQ1VjX5zm9?siteid=google&dist=TNMostRead
I came across this article today and thought this would be a great opportunity to try posting a link.
Oldcoin
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 12
The slum lords are buying in Texas; turning formerly decent middle class communities into rental havens. Very sad.
Yeah, rentals ruin a neighborhood. I don’t understand how someone would not maintain an asset with so much value. But they just let tenants run them into the ground. Go figure!
CountryBoy
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 48
Hopefully this falls under the “standard 'fair use' is permitted” option for imported posts
, since it is a subscription magazine and a link wouldn’t help. If I’m wrong just let me know and whack this post. And I won't do it again.
Below are a few Journal of Commerce quotes from an August 21, 2006 article that I thought might be of interest. Some of this may be old news or maybe even worthless editorializing by the author.
“U.S. economic growth is slowing … cooling housing sector… rising gasoline prices constrain consumer spending. The rest of the global economy, however, remains very solid, with growth likely to pick up a notch this year.”
“… during the first quarter, real GDP grew by a less-than-expected 2.5 percent at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate. … the numbers were even weaker, with final sales up 2.1 percent and final domestic sales rising just 1.6 percent. Overall GDP growth was boosted by exports and non-farm private inventories.”
“On the inflation front, the core PCE deflator - the Fed's favored inflation measure - accelerated to 2.9 percent from 2.1 percent in the first quarter.”
“Robust business spending and improving net exports will help offset the expected drop in residential investment and the slowdown in consumer spending.”
“U.S. export performance has been strong, buoyed by vigorous economic growth abroad and the lagged impact of the dollar's depreciation from 2002 to 2004. With global growth forecast to stay very firm and the dollar expected to resume its downward trend, U.S. exports should remain buoyant. And with import growth declining along with the U.S. slowdown, net exports should add to real GDP growth.”
My thoughts: Strong US exports, I would think, benefits the C and S funds, though probably more just a selected few stocks than the overall fund, but the expected continued downward trend of the US dollar should benefit the I fund. Or maybe this is why the market is kinda schizoid?
Just an engineer speaking here, trying to swim thru these financial waters and probably showing his ignorance in mentioning my thougths. :nuts:
CB
Show-me
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 104
U.S. housing bust raises odds of recession
bank: 40% chance of 'U.S. hard landing,' National Bank says
Eric Beauchesne, CanWest News Service
Published: Saturday, August 26, 2006
OTTAWA - The odds of a U.S. recession have increased dramatically, economists at a Canadian bank are warning.
And if the United States were to go under, it would require a shift in policies here by governments and the Bank of Canada to keep the Canadian economy from going under too, the National Bank of Canada's chief economist said yesterday.
http://tinyurl.com/gmqpz
Show-me
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 104
That would require income-tax cuts by the federal and other levels of government and interest-rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, Clement Gignac said after the bank announced that the odds of a U.S. recession have nearly doubled to 40% from the 25% it estimated in the spring.
:blink:
:worried: :blink:
Patricia Croft, chief economist with Phillips, Hager and North Investment Management Ltd., agreed the slump in the U.S. housing market is increasing the risks of a U.S. recession, which would sink Canada's economy as well.
"It's the single biggest risk to the U.S. economy and ... we haven't seen the bottom yet," she said. "There may be a bit of a lag, but if the U.S. goes down we're going down with them."
Ewwwwwwwww.
pyriel
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 12
Housing Market is about to crash!!!!!
Wow, reading from most of these posts, it seems like there will be a housing bubble. Economy will sink taking other countries with it. After all, since our economy is interrelated, if one falls, the other should follow.
My biggest mistake during 2000-2004 when our economy sunk is that I wasn't ready to take the opportunity presented before my eyes. Yes, I made some real estate acquisition but it was nothing compared to other seasoned real estate investors.
My suggestion is for everyone to start monitoring real estate data within your area. Just like stocks they do go up and down. Know when to buy at the lowest and know if the market will be able to sustain growth including the fact that they built too many houses.
Here on Guam, I am in dillema, projection for real estate is scarce for the next five years so everything is going up. This is due to 10k maraines and 15k family members who will relocating here for the next 7-8 years. As you can see, i put down five years because after five years, building housing here will be in full scale and we will start to see housing catching up with the demand.
Now, lets go out there and start studying your real estate market. You do it with your stocks and TSP so it shouldn't be too hard for you to do real estate as well. Good luck everyone and I hope that the economy goes down so that i can purchase more properties for cheaper prices.
PS.... On April, DOD will decide where to station an additional aircraft carrier in the pacific. There are two choices; Guam or Hawaii.... ;-) Kaching!!!!
Oldcoin
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 12
Very busy week ahead, lots of reports due out.
http://www.marketcenter.com/stocks/rssItem.action?Feed=schaeffer_observations&Id=17214
Some of the more important:
Consumer Confidence Monday at 10:00am,
Crude Inventories and FOMC Minutes Tuesday,
Factory Orders Wednesday,
Durable Orders, Initial Claims and New Home Sales Thursday and
Auto and Truck Sales, Nonfarm Payroll and Unemployment Rate Friday.
Whew!
Oldcoin
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 12
Another discussion of this weeks events and if we are headed into a recession.
http://www.marketcenter.com/news/story.action?id=RTT608260533000005Economic Slowdown? Not For Earnings
Despite growing talk of an economic slowdown, Wall Street analysts remain bullish about corporate profits. Reports of plunging home sales fanned fears of a major impact on consumer spending. Lowe's, Williams-Sonoma and other chains stoked those concerns by forecasting weak second-half outlooks. Retail stocks sold off. But the overall market suffered modest losses. S&P 500 companies' profits are expected to rise 14.7% in the third quarter vs. a year ago, the 13th straight double-digit gain.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ibd/20060828/bs_ibd_ibd/2006828general
grandma
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 38
Are you sure the second one is a complete address? It gives the appearance of something wrong at the last 1/3rd.
The first one worked for me this morning.
Oldcoin
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 12
I always test them after I post, and a day later. After that it’s old news. Both worked on the day I posted. The second one did work, but didn’t go to the same place. I think that web site changes the links or something. I don’t think I’ll post from their site anymore.
Oldcoin
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 12
Okay, I'm going to try again,
GDP released at 8:30 shows the economy slowing. Futures popped up after the release.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=agTimGCLVx3s&refer=home
Gee, I hope that works!
Oldcoin
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 12
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