Economic Data

[tsptalk]

The February Consumer Confidence Index came in at 114.8. That's the highest reading since July 2001.

https://www.briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/conf.htm

 

[tsptalk]

4th Quarter GDP 1.9%.

GDP for Q4 holds at 1.9%, despite consumer-spending jump - MarketWatch

 

[nnuut]

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[TD="class: econo-reportname, colspan: 2"]GDP
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[TABLE="class: actual_consensus_box"] [TR="class: actual_consensus_toprow"] [TD]	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR
GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR
Real Consumer Spending – Q/Q change – SAAR

[TD="class: econo-releaseinfo"] Released On 11/29/2017 8:30:00 AM For Q3(p):2017 [/TD]

[TD="class: actual_consensus_box_numbers"]3.0 %[/TD]
[TD="class: actual_consensus_box_numbers"]3.3 %[/TD]
[TD="class: actual_consensus_box_numbers"]2.8 % to 3.5 %[/TD]
[TD="class: actual_consensus_box_numbers"] 3.3 % [/TD]

[TD="class: actual_consensus_box_numbers"]2.2 %[/TD]
[TD="class: actual_consensus_box_numbers"]2.2 %[/TD]
[TD="class: actual_consensus_box_numbers"]2.1 % to 2.2 %[/TD]
[TD="class: actual_consensus_box_numbers"] 2.1 % [/TD]

[TD="class: actual_consensus_box_numbers"]2.4 %[/TD]
[TD="class: actual_consensus_box_numbers"]2.5 %[/TD]
[TD="class: actual_consensus_box_numbers"]2.4 % to 3.0 %[/TD]
[TD="class: actual_consensus_box_numbers"] 2.3 % [/TD]

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[TD="colspan: 2"] Highlights
Third-quarter GDP proved even more solid than the first estimate, revised 3 tenths higher in the second estimate to an as-expected 3.3 percent annualized rate. Nonresidential investment and inventory growth added a little more in the second estimate while residential investment and net exports subtracted a little less. These offset a slightly smaller contribution from consumer spending, at a 2.3 percent rate vs 2.4 percent in the first estimate and expectations for 2.5 percent. The drop off on the consumer side was centered in durables which, despite a slight downgrade, still grew at an 8.1 percent rate getting a boost from hurricane-replacement demand for autos.

Turning back to inventories, whether builds are actually positive or negative for the outlook are always difficult to assess, but given this year's general strength in consumer and business demand, the third-quarter build is probably a positive for the outlook, suggesting that businesses were stocking up for strength ahead including for the holiday shopping season. [more]

https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar

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[nnuut]

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[TD="class: econo-reportname, colspan: 2"]Corporate Profits [/TD]
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[TABLE="class: actual_consensus_box"] [TR="class: actual_consensus_toprow"] [TD]	Prior	Actual
After-tax Profits - Y/Y change

[TD="class: econo-releaseinfo"] Released On 11/29/2017 8:30:00 AM For Q3(p):2017 [/TD]

[TD="class: actual_consensus_box_numbers"]7.4 %[/TD]
[TD="class: actual_consensus_box_numbers"] 10.0 % [/TD]

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[TD="colspan: 2"] Highlights
Corporate profits, at an annualized rate of $1.86 trillion in the first estimate for the third quarter, rose 10.0 percent compared to the third quarter of 2016. Profits are after tax without inventory valuation or capital consumption adjustments.
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[TD="class: econo-defaultpara, colspan: 2"] Definition
Corporate profits are derived from the national income and product accounts and are expressed in several measures. Econoday's focus is on the most relevant measure for the total economy, after-tax profits. Why Investors Care

https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar
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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u...est-economic-growth-in-three-years-2017-11-29

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Job creation is US in 2017 was the worst in 7 years...lowest number of jobs since 2010.
How close are we to a correction, with a stock bubble that still thinks we're adding tons of jobs?

 

[tsptalk]

At this point I think job quality and wages are more important to the economy. It's tough to add "tons" of jobs with an unemployment rate at 4%. I think they say 5% is considered "full employment". But I agree, when things look so good, that's when investors tend to get blindsided.

This is obviously a political statement from thinkprogress.org disguised as economic news. Let's hope other members don't reply in kind. (Don't do it, nnuut. )

 

[FireWeatherMet]

At this point I think job quality and wages are more important to the economy. It's tough to add "tons" of jobs with an unemployment rate at 4%. I think they say 5% is considered "full employment". But I agree, when things look so good, that's when investors tend to get blindsided.

This is obviously this is a political statement from thinkprogress.org disguised as economic news. Let's hope other members don't reply in kind. (Don't do it, nnuut. )

Nnuut won't do it because he's dumbfounded right now (lol). But he can check the data (below) if he doesn't believe the chart. :smile:

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

But I agree with you Tom, that its hard to create jobs when you're approaching full employment, which most experts count as 5% That's why we've been in a labor shortage since early 2015.
Not sure about the quality of jobs...how has that significantly changed in the past 12 months?
If memory serves me right, we were at this stage around 1997, but still had 2 more great years in the markets, despite lower monthly jobs numbers.
Its just all those who poo-pooed the unemployment rate until a few months ago were partisan idiots who ignored economic data for the sake of ideological propaganda.
Myself, I like economic data...period.

So from here in, I don't think the jobs numbers are important, as long as they are not negative or consistently below 100K/month.
GDP numbers will be important, but not sure how much they can grow if hiring levels off.
Its been over 8 years since the last Recession ended, which is one of the longest streaks in our history. Clock is ticking until nature takes its course once again...maybe. Still some "Irrational Exuberance" to profit from, IMHO. :smile:

 

[nnuut]

OK I won't!

 

[tsptalk]

Thanks for the reminder guys, why I took it down in the first place.

 

[RazorCat]

The change to the tax structure has potential to generate new jobs, as well as, give businesses more working capital to fill current vacancies. More business friendly atmosphere, more employment.
I’ll remain cautiously optimistic until I see otherwise.