Ebbnflow's Day-to-Day Chart / MAY'07

[ebbnflow]

Re: Past Ebb Charts?

Click on Ebbnflow's name. Select go to public profile. Select all threads started by Ebbnflow. The Ebbtrackers for Feb, Mar, Apr are all there.

Thanks catt1, that worked!

 

[Lobo]

Re: Past Ebb Charts?

Click on Ebbnflow's name. Select go to public profile. Select all threads started by Ebbnflow. The Ebbtrackers for Feb, Mar, Apr are all there.

Thanks guys! I appreciate the help.

Lobo

 

[ebbnflow]

Lobo, I tallied all the ebbcharts from January 16 thru May 25 and it reached as high as +16.02% in gains, but now sits at +14.47%. If you tally it yourself using TSPTalk's spreadsheet, you can just go by the simple rules of cross-checking:

a) Two or more stop signs = safe haven (G/F-fund).
b) Two or more dollar signs = stocks (I-fund).

With two or more green signs, I used to have an option to jump to the S-fund whenever the market was red before noon, but I eliminated that thinking due to the fact that I don't want to be sitting around until noon to make my decisions. As you know, I already predict my moves four days in advance, and basing my decisions on what the market is showing before noon relies too much on emotion. It doesn't mesh with the mechanical bull kind of thinking I'm fostering with the ebbtracker. So, you'll see on past ebbcharts jumps to the S-fund (5 occurences) which should be changed to the I-fund.

This month (May) sure has been tough for the ebbtracker. But to put things in perspective, the maximum drawdown I had from last year (May 09, 2006 to June 13, 2006) was at -6.96%. Interestingly enough, I turned out good gains for both month. Not to mention, the whole year!

You think that's scary? Last year, if you left your money on the I-fund, there was a point where you would have lost -15.37% between May and June. Same thing with the S-fund (-11.88%) and the C-fund (-7.46%).

This year, the maximum drawdown the ebbchart had so far (from Jan. 16 - May 25) was at -1.68%. Just to prevent some confusion, my ebbnflow account won't reflect the ebbchart's gains for the year because I haven't followed it correctly since its inception (Jan. 16, 2007).

 

[ebbnflow]

For what it's worth:

............WED..THU..FRI
C-fund.....

S-fund....

I-fund.....

The System uses the ebbtracker's I-fund with simple cross-checking rules:

a) Two or more stop signs = safe haven (G/F-fund).
b) Two or more dollar signs = stocks (I-fund).

Following the above rules, I'm on the F-fund for next Wednesday/May 30 (2 stops). The I-fund for Thursday/May 31 (2 greens) and Friday/June 01 (2 greens) with both days showing x-check in effect.

 

[anthony]

ebbnflow - I hope newbie questions are accepted here ...

I would like confirm when are you actually entering and exiting the funds based off of your chart's predictions.

I'm probably reading to much into a simple system. But, let's say your chart indicates Thursday as a green day. Does that mean you interfund transfer on Wednesday to enter into the I Fund at Wednesday's closing price. Then let's just say Friday is a stop sign day, does that mean you interfund transfer to G/F on Thursday so you are leaving the I Fund at Thursday's closing price?

Thanks for your help and for showing others what kind of moves you make. It is very helpful to compare what others are doing in addition to Tom & Fred.

 

[Robo5555]

Thats right Anthony. To follow this chart you will have to make your interfung transfer by noon (EST) the day prior. Like you stated.....Thursday (b4 noon) for Friday's market play.

 

[NTXDiver]

Good Morning All! After following TSPTalk for some time silently, I finally got time to join up and begin to post! Just wanted to express my appreciation to Ebb and everyone else for the work on the various charts and other tools....great work
I've done fairly well them as a guide and hope to continue.

 

[Show-me]

Welcome to the MB NTXDriver! Good luck and good to see ya!

 

[Medic72]

Good Morning NTX, and welcome!

 

[nnuut]

Welcome to the board NTXDriver, hope you enjoy your stay!!
Norman

 

[Beavis]

Welcome NTXDriver!

Looks like a good call on the F fund today EBB. I almost jumped in yesterday (momentary lapse in faith of the Ebbtracker), glad I didn't.

 

[ebbnflow]

Good Morning All! After following TSPTalk for some time silently, I finally got time to join up and begin to post! Just wanted to express my appreciation to Ebb and everyone else for the work on the various charts and other tools....great work
I've done fairly well them as a guide and hope to continue.

Welcome aboard, NTXDiver! And good luck with your trading and investments.

 

[ebbnflow]

Welcome NTXDriver!

Looks like a good call on the F fund today EBB. I almost jumped in yesterday (momentary lapse in faith of the Ebbtracker), glad I didn't.

O Ye of Little Faith! If the market turns positive, we might see our F-fund gains evaporate. But it might set up good for the I-fund tomorrow. I don't have a problem with the market going down also...we might end up with a -FV and collect tomorrow. Hey, it's a win-win situation.

 

[wht00ss]

Ebb, I would just like to reiterate my thanks for the effort you put into the EbbTracker and putting your calls out there on the line day in a day out. That's a gutsy play in anyones book.

white

 

[ebbnflow]

Much appreciated, white! The ebbtracker did well tracking the I-fund (+2.34%) this month, but unfortunately its tracking of the C and S-fund was out of sync with the I-fund. So, unlike the previous months, the x-checking suffered greatly with only 50% being correct. New month coming up, though!

 

[ebbnflow]

For what it's worth:

............MON..TUE..WED
C-fund.....

S-fund.....

I-fund......

The System uses the ebbtracker's I-fund with simple cross-checking rules:

a) Two or more stop signs = safe haven (G/F-fund).
b) Two or more dollar signs = stocks (I-fund).

Following the above rules, I'm on the I-fund for next Monday/June 04 (3 greens). The F-fund for Tuesday/June 05 (2 stops). It's the G-fund for Wednesday/June 06 (2 stops) with x-check in effect.

 

[ebbnflow]

Nice gains the last couple days on the I-fund. Second day in a row we had an x-check (pattern#2) on the ebbchart. Since January 16, it has appeared a total of nine times and has been correct in eight of them (89%). This makes it a high-percentage play in my book. Please don't confuse this x-check (pattern#2) with the other x-check (pattern#6).

Pattern#2 goes to stocks (I-fund) and pattern#6 goes to safe haven (G/F). Pattern#6 is six of eleven (55%), so far...not bad considering we're in a bull market.

 

[Robo5555]

Thanks for your "very very valuable" posts!!!!!

 

[anthony]

I noticed you have a new official linked page off the home page. Congrats!

I like to compare some of the various "systems" out there like TSP System, TSP Sentiment Survey, AAII Sentiment, and now others like yours to help me make decisions. I watch a number of the 'heavy hitters' from the board too. Nice to know what others are up to.

I notice the Sentiment System is at 13.11%, so I'm just curious if someone had followed your EBB tracker to the T, what kind of a return would they have made so far for 2007?

Seems like I'd be doing much better if I just stuck to a system ... darned emotions, always getting in the way.

 

[tsptalk]

I notice the Sentiment System is at 13.11%, so I'm just curious if someone had followed your EBB tracker to the T, what kind of a return would they have made so far for 2007?

We are going to try to keep the EbbChart's updated return on the new page (www.tsptalk.com/ebbchart.html). The return is currently an impressive 15.6%, and that's actually since Jan 16 when ebbnflow made the latest change to the system. Ebbnflow can correct me if I stated that wrong.

Obviously, I was impressed with what he has done and I thought he deserved more exposure than what the board provided. We created the ebbchart page so people can find his current charts with one click from the home page (www.tsptalk.com). In addition, the page has been set up so that ebbnflow is compensated with any revenue the ads on that page may generate. It's not much, but it's a way for us to give back to Ebb, who has helped us out all this time.