ebbnflow
Ebbchart
- Reaction score
- 30
That's right,the ebbchart's gain is up +15.63% at this point (Jan. 16 start). The cross-checking rules below was the original simple rules I had in mind. I added an option as stated below, but the jumps to the S-fund took a percent off the gains. I'm done meddling with the system and I'm standing pat with it!
Lobo, I tallied all the ebbcharts from January 16 thru May 25 and it reached as high as +16.02% in gains, but now sits at +14.47%. If you tally it yourself using TSPTalk's spreadsheet, you can just go by the simple rules of cross-checking:
a) Two or more stop signs = safe haven (G/F-fund).
b) Two or more dollar signs = stocks (I-fund).
With two or more green signs, I used to have an option to jump to the S-fund whenever the market was red before noon, but I eliminated that thinking due to the fact that I don't want to be sitting around until noon to make my decisions. As you know, I already predict my moves four days in advance, and basing my decisions on what the market is showing before noon relies too much on emotion. It doesn't mesh with the mechanical bull kind of thinking I'm fostering with the ebbtracker. So, you'll see on past ebbcharts jumps to the S-fund (5 occurences) which should be changed to the I-fund.
This month (May) sure has been tough for the ebbtracker. But to put things in perspective, the maximum drawdown I had from last year (May 09, 2006 to June 13, 2006) was at -6.96%. Interestingly enough, I turned out good gains for both month. Not to mention, the whole year!
You think that's scary? Last year, if you left your money on the I-fund, there was a point where you would have lost -15.37% between May and June. Same thing with the S-fund (-11.88%) and the C-fund (-7.46%).
This year, the maximum drawdown the ebbchart had so far (from Jan. 16 - May 25) was at -1.68%. Just to prevent some confusion, my ebbnflow account won't reflect the ebbchart's gains for the year because I haven't followed it correctly since its inception (Jan. 16, 2007).
