Ebbnflow's Day-to-Day Chart / MAR'07

[NyteTracker]

Thanks, NyteTracker! I got one of InvestTool's free information packages on options trading. Now they just send me emails and call my house asking when I am going to have $2000 for one of their seminars!

I have to admit, it was a smart move on their part to buy those 2 companies. If only their students knew!

It appears Japan’s financials have finally reversed course:
Mitsubishi Fin. +3%, Mizuho +2%, and Sumitomo +2%.

 

[NyteTracker]

At the break:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^aord+^n225+^n300&d=t
BHP +1.55%, Toyota +1.30%, Mitsubishi Fin. +3.10%, Mizuho +1.32%
Sumitomo +0.95%, Takeda +1.83%, Honda +1.21%, Canon +0.16%
:nuts:

 

[ebbnflow]

Thanks for the wonderful links, NyteTracker! I was looking for futures trading, but since you posted the links, I don't mind looking into it. I've seen the Invest Tools commercial so many times, I think I'm brainwashed already.

 

[NyteTracker]

CSI - Wow firing on all cylinders just like your chart shows.
Another good call Ebb.
CSI Chart:
10 day
http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/ch...500~3377&ind_compind=&uf=0&lf=1&ma=0&maval=60
YTD
http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/ch...500~3377&ind_compind=&uf=0&lf=1&ma=0&maval=60

 

[NyteTracker]

Sometimes it doesn't change for me either. I just refresh the page by either clicking the Refresh button or pushing the F5 Key. That updates the picture.

I was very busy at work during this post and couldn't log in to comment.
My Bad, Belated Thanks :embarrest:

Green Lights Ebb :cheesy:
The Japanese Candlesticks rejected the Sell Trigger, confirming a hold for S.
http://www.americanbulls.com/StockPage.asp?CompanyTicker=US-SMALL-CAP&MarketTicker=NYSE&Typ=I
http://www.americanbulls.com/StockPage.asp?CompanyTicker=SPMIDCAP&MarketTicker=NYSE&Typ=I
http://www.americanbulls.com/StockPage.asp?CompanyTicker=SPSMALL&MarketTicker=NYSE&Typ=I
http://www.americanbulls.com/StockPage.asp?CompanyTicker=RUSSELL&MarketTicker=NYSE&Typ=I

 

[ebbnflow]

All systems are go, NyteTracker! Even though I don't read Japanese candles, the site's buy and sell signals are easily understood. Another tool for confirmation/cross-checking with the ebbchart.

 

[ebbnflow]

For what it's worth:

............THU..FRI..MON
C-fund....

S-fund.....

I-fund.....

System using ebbtracker's I-fund with cross-checking rules:

a) Two or more stop signs = safe haven (G/F-fund).
b) Two or more dollar signs = stocks (I/S-fund).

Following the above rules, I'm on the G-fund on Thursday/Mar. 22 (2 stops) for the expected G-penny and Friday/Mar. 23 (2 stops). It's the F-fund for next Monday/Mar. 26 (2 stops) with x-checking in effect.

 

[Callme_CO]

thanks ebb for the advice I bought in on I and it paid off.

 

[ebbnflow]

You're most welcome, Callme CO!

 

[VirginiaBob]

Good job Ebb. Excellent returns. Should be interesting tomorrow as you and 12% have opposing picks.

 

[ebbnflow]

Good job Ebb. Excellent returns. Should be interesting tomorrow as you and 12% have opposing picks.

Thanks, VirginiaBob. Even with the big FV correction (probably -.40 cents), the I-fund should be able to eke out some gains tomorrow.

The only thing to worry about the next couple of days are profit taking.

 

[Aspiration]

Ebb,

Thanks for continuing to post your planned moves. Your ebbtracker is spot on once again. That thing seems to be on fire!

 

[ebbnflow]

Thanks, Aspiration!

 

[ebbnflow]

For what it's worth:

............TUE..WED..THU
C-fund.....

S-fund.....

I-fund......

System using the ebbtracker's I-fund with cross-checking rules:

a) Two or more stop signs = safe haven (G/F-fund).
b) Two or more dollar signs = stocks (I/S-fund).

Following the above rules, I'm on the I-fund for next Tuesday/Mar. 27 (3 greens), Wednesday/Mar. 28 (2 greens), and Thursday/Mar. 29 (2 greens).

 

[ebbnflow]

...So for me the best way to reduce the stress I feel when trading is to not become so emotionally attached to my opinions and to think in terms of probabilities. I don't care how good you are, most people on average are right on about 50% of their trades. I know dozens of large traders over the years, and most of them are correct in the market anywhere from 40% to 60% of the time. Famous trader Steve Cohen said that his best trader in his office is only correct on about 65% of his trades. So 50% in the long run is the average based on my observations...

http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/

This got me curious as to how the ebbchart did from:

Jan. 16 thru Jan. 31 (10/12 or .83%)
Feb. 01 thru Feb. 28 (10/19 or .53%)
Mar. 01 thru Mar. 23 (12/17 or .71%)
-----------------------------------
.....................Total (32/48 or .67%)

67% correct on all trades. Okay, so it's all downhill from here. :laugh:

 

[FogSailing]

Ebb:

When I completed my Masters (many moons ago), I had to participate in the Business Game, a reality based test of a business having to surviive in a dynamic business environment. I wrote a program that trended each aspect of my business (and our teams actions) relating to financials, production, marketing, research, etc., but then also trended the decisions of my competitors. The amount of work to capture the decision data on the ten teams was exhausting...but based on their prior moves, we won. I don't know if it was the model, or the work to study the data, but the simple truth was I had a better idea of what I needed to do, because I had a better idea of how my competiton was going to play.

What I learned from all of that was to make certain you understand the fundamentals, then when you think you've got that right, stand back and make the best educated guess you can about things you don't know or control: Environment, Legislative issues, Competition, Societal...

It's great when you can guess (with some accuracy) which way the stars will align themselves....Unfortunately...it's those unknowns that get me every tme..

Thanks for your information. I follow the actions of TSP Talk leaders and your efforts definitely help me make my daily decisions. Now if I can only avoid getting hit by the coming correction.

FS

 

[ebbnflow]

FogSailing, if it's any comfort to you, the ebbchart did sidestep four of the biggest dips we had in the past couple of weeks (-.74/-3.16%, -.28/-1.25%, -.41/-1.86% and -.40/-1.77%).

Yep, I think I sidestepped four huge losses (-.74, -.28, -.41, -.40). :blink:

Thought those were percents at first, and I'm not even drinkin', yet!

Anywho, ebb helped me miss some of those downdrafts too. Made some serious coin this past Wednesday too.

 

[RPM]

Ebb:

Thanks for working hard on a Sat!

 

[FogSailing]

Thanks Ebb:

I appreciate all the effort you are putting into (a) creating a system and (b) sharing your insight with all of us.

FS

 

[fabijo]

I second FogSailing's comments! Ebb, you are da man!