Ebbnflow's Day-to-Day Chart / FEB'07

[FUTURESTRADER]

For what it's worth:


a) Two or more stop signs = safe haven (G/F-fund).
b) Two or more dollar signs = stocks (I/S-fund). *Optional: Use S-fund if market (DJI) is red before noon.

Following the rules above, I'm on the I-fund for Thursday and Friday, and back to the F-fund for next Monday.

ebb,

I think you (we) should consider a little more differentiation between F and G. Hard to pick F over G 100% on the two days the G will 'almost' certainly pay. I split 50/50 on those days when F looks to have some strength, and G will likely pay, all with weak equities backdrop, then back to F when G will almost certainly 'not' pay. Just gut, too lazy to back test , but the G and F are different animals. I.e. " safe haven G/F, *Optional: Use G if...etc."..just some thoughts.

 

[ebbnflow]

FUTURESTRADER, you're right in putting priority in getting the G-penny. I'm only going for the F-fund 'cause I'm pretty sure the G-penny is coming this Friday when I'm still in stocks.

 

[ebbnflow]

As of Jan. 16 to Feb. 16:

..............System...ebbtracker..tsp prices
C-fund......+3.62%.....+2.79%.....+1.90%
S-fund......+3.79%.....+3.53%.....+3.76%
I-fund.......+4.29%.....+2.01%.....+4.61%

The System is comprised of the ebbtracker's tracking of the funds with cross-checking function. I included the C and S-fund to see how they do with X-checking. The gains for the C/S-fund got better 'cause it gets to jump on the I-fund when blocked with a stop sign. Conversely, the System using the I-fund gets to go to the S-fund when blocked. One note, the System gets to jump to stocks only when two green signs are showing. Otherwise, it goes to the G/F-fund.

The regular I-fund is tearing it up (+4.61%), but one mistake is all it takes for the System to overtake it. (Took me three takes to get that one)

 

[ebbnflow]

Oops, the System using the S-fund should read +3.79% and not +3.89% (typo).

 

[ebbnflow]

For what it's worth:

............WED..THU..FRI
C-fund....

S-fund....

I-fund.....

a) Two or more stop signs = safe haven (G/F-fund).
b) Two or more dollar signs = stocks (I/S-fund). *Optional: Use S-fund if market (DJI) is red before noon.

Following the rules above, I'm on G-fund for next Wednesday (3 reds), the I-fund for Thursday (2 greens) and Friday (3 greens). On a side note, I would have been on safe haven (G or F-fund) for this coming Monday thru Wednesday were it not for Monday being a holiday.

 

[ebbnflow]

Just updated the ebbchart on post #1 of this thread. Going to the C-fund instead of the I-fund. It's an option thing. I still think the I should be fine for tomorrow.

 

[jlpost]

Hi Ebbnflow,
Post # 1 Seems to go thru the 20th Feb with the last numbers unpdated thru the 15th.

 

[ebbnflow]

Hiya, jlpost! At the top of this page, click on Tools and choose Internet Options. Under the General tab, click on Settings for the Temporary Internet files and under 'Check for newer versions of stored pages' place a tick on Automatically. I think the problem lies on your browser using stored cache which was not updated.

 

[jlpost]

Thanks Ebbnflow for all your great work.

I did have the settings as you discribed, don't know why it wasn't updated. I tried hitting the refresh button while on the #1 post and it did refresh. I now see the new data.

Thanks again for all your work.

 

[ebbnflow]

Sorry jlpost, I thought you hit the refresh button (F5) already! And, you're welcome.

 

[ebbnflow]

As of Jan. 16 to Feb. 16:

..............System...ebbtracker..tsp prices
C-fund......+3.62%.....+2.79%.....+1.90%
S-fund......+3.79%.....+3.53%.....+3.76%
I-fund.......+4.29%.....+2.01%.....+4.61%

The System is comprised of the ebbtracker's tracking of the funds with cross-checking function. I included the C and S-fund to see how they do with X-checking. The gains for the C/S-fund got better 'cause it gets to jump on the I-fund when blocked with a stop sign. Conversely, the System using the I-fund gets to go to the S-fund when blocked. One note, the System gets to jump to stocks only when two green signs are showing. Otherwise, it goes to the G/F-fund.

The regular I-fund is tearing it up (+4.61%), but one mistake is all it takes for the System to overtake it.

Yep, the System now holds a +4.38% to +4.08% (Jan. 16 thru Feb. 21) edge over the regular I-fund after a -0.73% showing today. Up until now I've been following the System using the I-fund tracked by the ebbtracker (with cross-checking), but that changed today when I opted to go with the System using the C-fund. I hope I don't regret this by tomorrow.

 

[ebbnflow]

Yep, I regret moving to the C-fund. I checked my cross-checking rules and I didn't see a move to the C-fund as an option. I had the S-fund as an option to move into if the market was red, but not the C-fund. Oh well, live and learn. Today, I exercised the S-fund option instead of moving to the I-fund 'cause I didn't want to get caught in a correction tomorrow if the I-fund gets a +FV today.

 

[350zCommTech]

Yep, I regret moving to the C-fund. I checked my cross-checking rules and I didn't see a move to the C-fund as an option. I had the S-fund as an option to move into if the market was red, but not the C-fund. Oh well, live and learn. Today, I exercised the S-fund option instead of moving to the I-fund 'cause I didn't want to get caught in a correction tomorrow if the I-fund gets a +FV today.

ebbnflow,

I know you're just following your tracker but this chart doesn't look good to me.

View attachment 1418

 

[ebbnflow]

Thanks for the heads-up, 350z! I see it's way up the channel, but there is a possibility that it moves up a little from here before going down -- just like the previous uptrending line. At least I hope so.

 

[nnuut]

ebbnflow,

I know you're just following your tracker but this chart doesn't look good to me.

View attachment 1418

Hey, just asking, but how did you position your channel positions? Appears to me the top line should start at the top of the peak around Dec 29 of last year? Could reposition the bottom line also. I am no expert but I've seen lots of charts with channels and something looks funny about this!
Thanks,
Norman

 

[350zCommTech]

Hey, just asking, but how did you position your channel positions? Appears to me the top line should start at the top of the peak around Dec 29 of last year? Could reposition the bottom line also. I am no expert but I've seen lots of charts with channels and something looks funny about this!
Thanks,
Norman

Charting is not an exact science because everybody is different. And markets don't always bounce of your support or resistance lines. For me, I just use multiple recent points for the short term. I try not to go back to far and not get too cute. I use it only as a rough guide line for short term tops and bottoms.

 

[350zCommTech]

Nnutt,

Does this look better to you?

View attachment 1422

IMHO, the above looks nice but not realistic.

 

[Spaf]

Why not chat about this one!​

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

 

[350zCommTech]

Spaf,

I use that also and it looks even scarier!

 

[Spaf]

350z,
It ain't nada to be scared about!
BB says the trend is ok. Slow-Sto says momentum can't be sustained. MACD says we are in for a possible correction. RSI confirms a weakening, but history says it doesn't have to weaken a lot. SAR again confirms the trend, but has not registered a dip (could always be a head fake). Pretty well at time to fold'em, and start to look for a buy-in point some where near the EMA!