DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

Hi Shitepoke,
You might be in good shape with entry set for December :smile: even though futures are down right now. :(

A major part of my entry strategy is to enter preferably after Slow Stochastic has dropped below 20, and begins to rise so it crosses back up above its signal line or preferably is crossing back up above 20. An entry when it only crosses above its signal line is an early entry and riskier than waiting for the signal line to cross back up above 20. The fear is whether it has finished its drop to avoid the falling knife.

Once I enter, I like to see the Stochastic line rising at a sharp upward angle and for MACD default (setting at 12,26,9) to rise above its signal line within 3 days after entry. To me these two characteristics indicate a strong thrust up that may last awhile even after it gets above 80 on Slow Sto. But if those characteristics don't occur, I consider this a weak upthrust that may reverse as soon as signal line touches 80 on Slow Stochastic, or reverse via whipsaw even sooner. Obviously, these scenarios do not always play out, but they happen often enough to where I have some confidence in them and weigh them in my decision making.

I also look at trendlines and candle patterns to make decision on entry, plus look at weekly charts.

Now for the UGLY: I try to manage my two IFTs if at month's end. I don't like to enter on last day of month just to set up my IFTs for the next month, but I may do that tomorrow. It might be a little early for entry (per reading of Stochastics), but first part of month often makes money if financial info on 1st and 3rd day of month are good, plus on first Friday we get job numbers. So, if you start the month in the market, you might be able to exit to pocket some gains and still have the 2nd IFT left to reenter if market drops back down before end of month.

I think the exits are harder to time and can be costly.

Best wishes to you! :smile:
 
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Glad to hear all turned out well! :smile: As for markets, I am crossing fingers as I contemplate entry today. Would like to make at least partial entry., but maybe sanity will win out... :rolleyes: ... It all depends on what happens after 11am ET as we approach cutoff time.

Here are charts a bit early.

S FUND - DWCPF DAILY.png


C FUND - SPX DAILY.png


I FUND - EFA DAILY.png


F FUND - AGG DAILY.png
 
I'm with you. tom1tom1 jumped in yesterday and he's been pretty consistent at picking the right time.
Is that a micro-gap just below 2200 that still needs to be filled, or am I mistaken?? If so, maybe we fill that and shoot strait up.
I'm fairly confident that the debt ceiling and funding issues will be temporarily solved at least to get us through the Holidays, so there may be a couple weeks of good gains to be had.
Just over an hour to go to decide weather to jump in...... Hmmmm
 
Hi Epic,
I noticed that Tom1Tom1 jumped in too and he has shown incredibly good timing. Too bad he doesn't share basis for entry/exits so we can learn.

I just looked at weekly charts and they are not looking good. An entry today would be banking on a bounce tomorrow and good news and a quick exit to pocket gains. It's a risky move. Not sure on microgap. Still considering entry...ugghhh....
 
I feel your frustration. The small gap I was referring to (in S-Fund) was filled about 30 minutes ago, so no more gaps to fill.
I think I'm gonna go for it. =))
 
Market has dropped in S fund about 8.89% since Nov 8. Doesn't look like it is reversing yet. So, I will lose my November IFTs unless I change my mind and go in some today with hope of a bounce tomorrow. Market is clearly in a down trend ...not sure when it will reverse. Maybe good numbers come out tomorrow to start upward again... :(
 
Here are latest charts...
Nothing to indicate bottom is in, but when it does it will rise quickly even if just a dead cat bounce....hummm...

S FUND - DWCPF DAILY.png

C FUND - SPX DAILY.png

I FUND - EFA DAILY.png
 
S fund chart...going back to start of year. C fund going back just a few months.
it did not quite Close below the October 4th low of 2175.59, but it was close. Intraday did hit 2167.75 but managed to close at 2183.

View attachment 52062


C FUND - SPX DAILY.png
 

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DBA. thanks for your time...any idea what the NAAIM numbers are showing?. that was a tough hit for my first day back in market. hope for upthrust tomorrow...EJJ
 
Yes, NAAIM exposure was higher last week, and that is good although it was still followed by drops Friday and Monday. But I am happy to see the strength of today's bounce. Noticing that even though it has not recovered yesterday's loss, it is enough to cause the Slow Stochastics to cross above the signal lines on the S and C funds and C fund is bouncing off the 20 line. Also noticing that RSI is now rising. I fund in similar position to S fund. Watching candle formation. Have lower tails on S and I fund and seem to be forming doji on each.

I am thinking to enter at least 70%. With 1 IFT down, there is only ability to add to position later or step out. Yep, wish I had entered yesterday but seemed too risky. It could still drop more, but I am liking the perceived odds on a move to enter. Will see how candles form over the next hour.
 
Well...today's drop this afternoon was unexpected. I don't think it will last. So, today's buyers get a further discount, but price is going up as the bottom feeders buy at end of day. Still S fund will have a drop. No telling what happens tomorrow but I tend to think the variant will not cause much havoc if the politicians don't get involved. I saw number that 16 of 19 persons (in S Africa?) were non-symptomatic and other report said symptoms were mild. Hoping this is a knee-jerk reaction. Will see...


schmidt house.jpg
 
I agree totally with your Pic. LOL I never would have thought I would see the S fund drop into the single digit return this year (as of today) mostly during the holiday period. It been a crappy season and I bought just shy of the high. Still have my sticky pants on though as I'm riding it down. To much of a loss to bail now but I still have time to make it up. Worst 2 weeks I have ever been caught up in. Dang it. Seems I am going back to where I started the year at where I was negative for the first few months. Someone somewhere really wants me to finish with a bad year.

Best of luck hopefully you bought the bottom.
 
Hi Quabit, I feel for you. Losses are tough to take. Word of caution--- set your loss limit and execute an exit if you hit it.

Riding it down seems okay until fear sets in. Some have taken that view and dug a deep hole that is very difficult to come back from, and we have had some lose in excess of 10-20% over multiple transactions. Others say as long as you do not sell, the loss is not booked. This is true if you have the guts to see it drop a lot, do not exit and if we do not go into hard downturn and market recovers fairly quick.

I know myself well enough to know I am awful at dropping more than a few percent. So, my hands down stop/exit is at a loss of about 3% on a trade, and under no circumstance will I stay in with a TSP drop below 0% for the year without immediately exiting (which is more likely at start of year when gains have not yet accumulated).

Let's hope the market turns around. Unfortunately, futures are down right now. Hopefully that will work itself out overnight.
So, I will watch what happens tomorrow and if it continues down, I would likely be forced to exit Friday if there is no green by Friday morning. Yep, I will put my tail between my legs and come to terms with learning that my entry was just not good. I do tend to think the variant is not going to be a big factor, but I do believe this drop is primarily due to concerns of continuing non-transitory inflation including policy decisions that are adding to this. Will see how it goes tomorrow.

Best wishes to you and everyone! :smile:
 
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