DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
Futures turning positive. :smile: Hoping it holds. Here are COB charts. Best wishes to everyone!

These charts are now showing 100 and 200 day SMA.

S FUND - DWCPF DAILY.png


C FUND - SPX DAILY.png
:smile:

I FUND - EFA DAILY.png
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Hi Quabit, I feel for you. Losses are tough to take. Word of caution--- set your loss limit and execute an exit if you hit it.

Riding it down seems okay until fear sets in. Some have taken that view and dug a deep hole that is very difficult to come back from, and we have had some lose in excess of 10-20% over multiple transactions. Others say as long as you do not sell, the loss is not booked. This is true if you have the guts to see it drop a lot, do not exit and if we do not go into hard downturn and market recovers fairly quick.

I know myself well enough to know I am awful at dropping more than a few percent. So, my hands down stop/exit is at a loss of about 3% on a trade, and under no circumstance will I stay in with a TSP drop below 0% for the year without immediately exiting (which is more likely at start of year when gains have not yet accumulated).
Click to expand...

So true. Problem is as fast as it dropped since I bought it would have been a one or two day trade and with the holiday season upon us I really thought seasonality would play out. It's just one of those things right now. Dropping close to multiple % almost everyday sucks and you kinda get trapped. At lease this mornings open is positive so I will get to dance the jig for now :banana:even though I know it could end up like yesterday:(. LOL
 
Yes...definitely understand Quabit. Once you are caught in downward spiral, it is very hard to exit and solidify the loss, especially with no recourse to jump back in.

Today does look better. At this point, price has gained back a little more than 50% of yesterday's loss. Wish that thrust up was a little stronger like 70-80%... but it is enough for me to risk staying on to see what happens tomorrow. Job numbers tomorrow and some economic numbers that can move the market. Next, thinking if Fed meeting two weeks from now and impending debt ceiling that will likely be tied to not just a budget but to new "infrastructure" bill with spending. It is going to get interesting....
 
felixthecat said:
Dead Cat bounce? One big move up and one bigger move back. I don’t know but will see what tomorrow brings. 路*♂️ I don’t like the chart on $DWCPF at the moment.
Click to expand...


Sfund.jpg


Yeah, the 200-day EMA is concerning. We haven't seen this index price below its 200-day EMA since April 2020. Despite today's gains it's not comforting that the 200-day EMA may have acted as resistance to top today's highs off.
sc

sc
 
Tommy IV, great point about 200 EMA acting as resistance. For the moment, the low is above Monday's close...barely. Will see how it goes rest of day and into next week. I added in 200 EMA and 200 SMA to these charts.

Charts as of a few mins ago. Sticky pants deployed for now. Wishing you all a great weekend! :smile:

S FUND - DWCPF DAILY.png


C FUND - SPX DAILY.png


I FUND - EFA DAILY.png


F FUND - AGG DAILY.png
 
Last edited:
DreamboatAnnie said:
Tommy IV, great point about 200 EMA acting as resistance. For the moment, the low is above Monday's close...barely. Will see how it goes rest of day and into next week. I added in 200 EMA and 200 SMA to these charts.

Charts as of a few mins ago. Sticky pants deployed for now. Wishing you all a great weekend! :smile:

View attachment 52117


View attachment 52118


View attachment 52119


View attachment 52120
Click to expand...

Getting than uneasy feeling. Like I have not felt in years. Like when Darth Vadar was talking about Obi Wan feeling. Yes I remember…the beginning of the market collapse. Huge swings begin the onslaught to faster downside and trapped investors. I may need to order some of those sticky pants if I make a misstep.
 
Hi Felix, I am getting that feeling as well... Fear is definitely there as the market is high.

The charts are now looking more like there could be more downside coming. But, I am still hopeful we are close to a temporary bottom...maybe get enough wind to make a little coin next week, but long term, I just don't know-- I tend to think down. Overall, it is troubling. :(
 
I already had the oversold short term in mind. Should get rally bounce next week perhaps a short rally but today will finish quite nasty. Took that into account for exhausted selling by close. Took plunge and deployed sticky pants. Gut says this going to be a real rough December. Will need to investigate but that 11 percent correct looks more like 15 percent soon. 😱🤷*♂️
 
I already had the oversold short term in mind. Should get rally bounce next week perhaps a short rally but today will finish quite nasty. Took that into account for exhausted selling by close. Took plunge and deployed sticky pants. Gut says this going to be a real rough December. Will need to investigate but that 11 percent correction in S funds looks to widen to 15 percent. 😱🤷*♂️
 
NASA, It's looking good so far. Knocking on wood. It did drop below 200 last week, like March 2020, but with variant likely weaker, I tend to think drop will not be deeper...BUT, Covid variants are a political football so who knows how the politicians will manage to further screw up or slow the economy's recovery or cause more inflationary pressures. Also, we do have the Russian troops buildup near Ukraine border wild card to think about. Humm.....:rolleyes:
 
Charts... just to clarify, Friday's action did result in slightly higher low but has not yet hit a higher high so I read this as neutral. I do like candle that was forming earlier today with longer tail, but price is no longer as high as it was earlier today, so still just watching. I am hopeful. S fund Stochastics rising above its signal line but still below 20, while C and I funds are rising above the 20 line. Until we hit higher high, it's not an uptrend.

S FUND - DWCPF DAILY.png


C FUND - SPX DAILY.png


I FUND - EFA DAILY.png
 
felixthecat said:
Getting than uneasy feeling. Like I have not felt in years. Like when Darth Vadar was talking about Obi Wan feeling. Yes I remember…the beginning of the market collapse. Huge swings begin the onslaught to faster downside and trapped investors. I may need to order some of those sticky pants if I make a misstep.
Click to expand...


So sez the current tracker leader after another perfectly timed TSP move last Friday:

All I want to know is your favorite drink recipe so I can order one after work today
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

P
Negative Adjustment Earnings
Replies
3
Views
262
nasa1974
nasa1974
V
Valleymd blog (the international question)
Replies
2
Views
208
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
January 2025 AutoTracker Winners!
Replies
1
Views
348
rangerray
rangerray
tsptalk
Time to Upgrade the Forum, which means...
Replies
10
Views
1K
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
December 2024 AutoTracker Winners!
Replies
2
Views
411
Skooby
S
Back
Top