DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

[DreamboatAnnie]

Yes indeed my seafaring companion, you have awoken the dark side. Now sit back and pay attention, as I spin you a tale of dark skies and rough seas...

Oh...and I see that you even changed your avatar! Dark indeed!! :suspicious:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Decided to stay again. Will wait to see what Yellin has to say tomorrow....uggghhhh.. Hope it's opposite of whatever the market doesn't want to hear. Can't figure if good is bad and vice versa.

 

[Khotso]

Decided to stay again. Will wait to see what Yellin has to say tomorrow....uggghhhh.. Hope it's opposite of whatever the market doesn't want to hear. Can't figure if good is bad and vice versa.

You are not alone DBA!

 

[ravensfan]

Decided to stay again. Will wait to see what Yellin has to say tomorrow....uggghhhh.. Hope it's opposite of whatever the market doesn't want to hear. Can't figure if good is bad and vice versa.

Keep a keen eye on the horizon lassy. The waters are filled with treachery. Tis turbulent times indeed...doth sayeth the raven.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

You are not alone DBA!

Yep...looks like a lot of us are being tossed about in this turbulent ocean! Oh what will tomorrow bring?? Will keep hopes up, after all tomorrow is another day filled with new opportunity to change our fortunes...let's hope to the up and sunny side!!

 

[skycophigh]

Hey Dreamy, Just a quick note to say hi, and love your banter with the "raven" any way, when you look at the SS , do you watch the weekly one or daily report??? I see the weekly is just getting ready to turn North, would be purrrfect for a little bounce into the end of the month....What say ye Miss dreamy one????




]Yep...looks like a lot of us are being tossed about in this turbulent ocean! Oh what will tomorrow bring?? Will keep hopes up, after all tomorrow is another day filled with new opportunity to change our fortunes...let's hope to the up and sunny side!! [/QUOTE]

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hey Dreamy, Just a quick note to say hi, and love your banter with the "raven" any way, when you look at the SS , do you watch the weekly one or daily report??? I see the weekly is just getting ready to turn North, would be purrrfect for a little bounce into the end of the month....What say ye Miss dreamy one????




]Yep...looks like a lot of us are being tossed about in this turbulent ocean! Oh what will tomorrow bring?? Will keep hopes up, after all tomorrow is another day filled with new opportunity to change our fortunes...let's hope to the up and sunny side!!

[/QUOTE]

Hello Sky, Hope your doing well! Glad to hear your enjoying the banter. On the Stochastics, I look at the slow stochastic daily ....every day, along with daily MACD and RSI. Look at support and resistance, and now also trying to incorporate a little better understanding of daily candle patterns. Im just thinking I need to keep emotions out of it and set some hard rules to help with that. In another post somewhere I mentioned that I had ignored the 10 EMA daily crossover going below the 20 that occurred over two weeks ago for the first time. If I had gotten out, instead of practicing wishful thinking I would be out of the market long before it started to bottom. I'd be sitting pretty right now...costly lesson. That 10/20 EMA cross over is the ONLY indicator I have seen that would get you out of the flash crashes in time...at least for the ones I studied back in early January going back to 1987. I didn't look at all of them, but saw enough to realize it's really a good indicator. Of course with high volatility it could kick you out often, but it think it's worthy of using and it didn't seem to be that bad at knocking you out of market enough to really worry about it.

When I look at weekly charts I also look at Slow Stochastic, but pay more attention to whether the most current weekly average is still within the 10 weekly EMA channel. Also look to see if the channel is still sloping upward. Mainly looking for confirmation of the overall trend. Looking for weekly to not cross over the 50 weekly EMA. If so, that's an indicator to get out...but again you could have quite a hit by then so probably the 20 weekly cross over is better. In any case, hope some of this serves as food for thought. Take care and best wishes! . DBAnnie

 

[ravensfan]

Ouuuuuuuuwwwww... the "dark" side has emerged!!! I thought I'd never see the scary Raven ---how very Poe -ish of you! Now don't you start reciting the tale tell heart or I'll really get creeped out !! Aaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhh.................................. I don't like scary stories, and the market is spooky enough at this point!! BOO!!!

Ok, you've seen the dark side, so I'll put him away for now. I don't want to scare you so I changed my avatar to something more pleasing...unless you are a Colts fan. Geez I feel like Gollum from the Lord of the Rings...Come on hobbises time to get back in the market. Gollum will take care of master!!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Ok, you've seen the dark side, so I'll put him away for now. I don't want to scare you so I changed my avatar to something more pleasing...unless you are a Colts fan. Geez I feel like Gollum from the Lord of the Rings...Come on hobbises time to get back in the market. Gollum will take care of master!!

Raven!! You do know how to please! lol I love the new avatar... looks like a tough "hombre". Yep... its definitely you. Although I do like your scary Raven as well. Next time you bring him out, I'll let you see what I had in store for you! It might have been tough to take! lol:laugh: But we have allll yearrr to play!

Now to the business of this market. So far so good.... but looks a little tepid. Wondering what time Janet Yellen talks.. probably around noon (just late enough so we can't take any actions). Well either we will be happy or its gonna hit the fan. Then tough call comes tomorrow either way. Wouldn't it just be great if this market would take off like a high flying firecracker!!!! Wow. I might need to do a little jig! :toung: I'd even throw a party and let you do a celebratory little "circle" dance on the deck! Bye for now, DBAnnie

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Okay. I am out of the market COB today. fight another day. Still think this is just a temporary bounce up. Think there is more downside.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Yellen's remarks today (entirety).


Yellen's First Major Speech As Fed Chair - Business Insider

 

[ravensfan]

Okay. I am out of the market COB today. fight another day. Still think this is just a temporary bounce up. Think there is more downside.

So what made you decide to bail today and what makes you think this is just a temporary bounce? Was it something Janet Yellen said, or just a gut feeling? I've been thinking of changing my allocation from 100%S to 50%S and 50%C. I've been noticing a trend of larger losses and smaller gains when you compare the S Fund to the C Fund. Your thoughts?

Also, IMHO I am seeing signs that things are beginning to turn around and we continue up at least through the end of May. I would like your input on this also.

Thanks DBA. Good luck with your investment decision and have a blessed day!!!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

So what made you decide to bail today and what makes you think this is just a temporary bounce? Was it something Janet Yellen said, or just a gut feeling? I've been thinking of changing my allocation from 100%S to 50%S and 50%C. I've been noticing a trend of larger losses and smaller gains when you compare the S Fund to the C Fund. Your thoughts?

Also, IMHO I am seeing signs that things are beginning to turn around and we continue up at least through the end of May. I would like your input on this also.

Thanks DBA. Good luck with your investment decision and have a blessed day!!!

Hello Raven! Well it is not anything Yellen said, in fact, she seems to be saying they will be open to options and basically saying don't count on just looking at unemployment rate or a "single" indicator to try to guess their next action. I think it is just more my sentiment. Thinking there is enough disbelief that things could get worse. Also, thinking it is LESS risky to get out now and then jump back when I think it is headed in the correct direction and back into a channel. Then will just stick with my strategy and quit straying from it.

What is lost is lost. Not buying into the "don't get out to avoid locking in a loss" at this point because if it keeps going down, you are just going to take longer to dig out. Will look for bottom... MACD cross over back to positive and then pick it back up on the upside. Hopefully a long trend upside. But it would not surprise me to see multiple events like this throughout this year. So volatile.

As for the C fund, I think it is just starting its downward track while S has run a lot of its course----or at least that is what it looks like....C might fare better but I really do not know. I can see either of these going up for a week or so and then plunging again even further down. Why? I guess because i don't think the economy is that great and I think earnings reports might not be that great---but no one knows that, and because we look to be in a downtrend. Right now I am not seeing anything to indicate we are in anything other than a downtrend. We have not made higher highs and higher lows...its downtrending.

So my strategy is going to be simple. Get in when MACD goes positive and get out when the 10 daily EMA crossess below the 20 EMA/and-or MACD goes negative. Then gotta hope for not too many whipsaws. I'm not going to buy and hold. I think it is going to see saw downward with lower lows and lower highs.

So....Regardless Im going to try to stick to my indicators. I plan on riding the coaster as much as possible on the upside--when I "see" an uptrend direction---IF I can see the actual uptrend, or at a minimum the MACD is going positive to signal entry.

I'm gonna take this loss on the chin because I could have avoided it with the information I had. So at this point, gonna make the best of it and hope to jump in on the next major upswing. Bye for now and Best Wishes to you and all! Many blessings to you too! DBAnnie

 

[JTH]

Not anything Yellen said, in fact, she seems to be saying they will be open to options and basically saying don't count on just looking at unemployment rate or a "single" indicator to try to guess their next action. I think it is just more my sentiment. Thinking there is enough disbelief that things could get worse. Also, thinking it is LESS risky to get out now and then jump back when I think it is headed in the correct direction and back into a channel. Then will just stick with my strategy and quit straying from it.

What is lost is lost. Not buying into the "don't get out to avoid locking in a loss" at this point because if it keeps going down, you are just going to take longer to dig out. Will look for bottom... MACD cross over back to positive and then pick it back up on the upside. Hopefully a long trend upside. But it would not surprise me to see multiple events like this throughout this year. So volatile.

As for the C fund, I think it is just starting its downward track while S has run a lot of its course----provided it does not take a larger dip. So I can see either of these going up for a week or so and then plunging again even further down. Why? I guess because i don't think the economy is that great. There is so much volatility why ride it down. Then also I figure my guess is as good as anyone else's..its clear no one really knows what the heck is going on. So my strategy is going to be simple. Get in when MACD goes positive and get out when the 10 daily EMA crossess below the 20 EMA/and-or MACD goes negative. Then gotta hope for not too many whipsaws. I'm not going to buy and hold. If it does not take another major plunge in the next month, then I will have been wrong---but I don't mean to say I am staying out that long... just staying out until it looks like it is going up. So I plan on riding the coaster as much as possible on the upside---which is always the plan (although it does not always pan out).

I'm gonna take this loss on the chin because I could have avoided it with the information I had. So at this point, gonna make the best of it and hope to jump in on the next major upswing. Bye for now and Best Wishes to you and all! DBAnnie

DBA, come visit me in SA-RAFB we'll do lunch

 

[Whipsaw]

Did somebody say Whipsaw?! I hope I'm not out of sync again, at this point for me its ride what ever run up there is this week and bail for the month (I hate jumping in when I see someone else jump out, or vice versa)... TSP 2 trades works us into a much longer time horizon, standing still to move fast!

 

[ravensfan]

Hello Raven! Well it is not anything Yellen said, in fact, she seems to be saying they will be open to options and basically saying don't count on just looking at unemployment rate or a "single" indicator to try to guess their next action. I think it is just more my sentiment. Thinking there is enough disbelief that things could get worse. Also, thinking it is LESS risky to get out now and then jump back when I think it is headed in the correct direction and back into a channel. Then will just stick with my strategy and quit straying from it.

What is lost is lost. Not buying into the "don't get out to avoid locking in a loss" at this point because if it keeps going down, you are just going to take longer to dig out. Will look for bottom... MACD cross over back to positive and then pick it back up on the upside. Hopefully a long trend upside. But it would not surprise me to see multiple events like this throughout this year. So volatile.

As for the C fund, I think it is just starting its downward track while S has run a lot of its course----or at least that is what it looks like....C might fare better but I really do not know. I can see either of these going up for a week or so and then plunging again even further down. Why? I guess because i don't think the economy is that great and I think earnings reports might not be that great---but no one knows that, and because we look to be in a downtrend. Right now I am not seeing anything to indicate we are in anything other than a downtrend. We have not made higher highs and higher lows...its downtrending.

So my strategy is going to be simple. Get in when MACD goes positive and get out when the 10 daily EMA crossess below the 20 EMA/and-or MACD goes negative. Then gotta hope for not too many whipsaws. I'm not going to buy and hold. I think it is going to see saw downward with lower lows and lower highs.

So....Regardless Im going to try to stick to my indicators. I plan on riding the coaster as much as possible on the upside--when I "see" an uptrend direction---IF I can see the actual uptrend, or at a minimum the MACD is going positive to signal entry.

I'm gonna take this loss on the chin because I could have avoided it with the information I had. So at this point, gonna make the best of it and hope to jump in on the next major upswing. Bye for now and Best Wishes to you and all! Many blessings to you too! DBAnnie

DBA

First off, thank you for your analysis. I really like that we can exchange ideas which helps to make us better investors in addition to the banter which brings the fire to investing

I just checked out the DWCPF charts for the S Fund. What I see is the uptrend you describe above. All my indicators are not quite there yet, but they are very close. Here is my analysis.

Moving Average - The 10 and 20 EMA are both below the 50 EMA. Todays closing price is also below the 50 EMA. This is a bearish indicator

Slow Stoch - The red line is at 15.34 and the black line is a 25.91. Since the black line is above the red line and moving higher I consider this an indication of higher prices. (Incidently, SS usually crosses over before MACD therefore I use MACD to confirm the SS signal)

MACD - Red line is at 7.13. Black line is a 4.26 and rising. Although the red line is still above the black line they appear to be getting nearer to a positive crossover.

RSI - is at 44.87 far away from overbought or oversold. (20 and 80)

Bollenger Bands - Upper band is at 1051.01. Lower band is at 969.52. Bands have expanded and are far apart. With todays closing price, there is little danger of crossing either band anytime soon.

Conclusion - If I was out of the market, I would be jumping all over the S Fund at this point. Granted, no one can predict what the market will do, but based on these numbers I feel comfortable hanging in. I do think however that I will take another look at my strategy and maybe eliminate at least one indicator and add some hard and fast rules. I liked your analysis on bailing when the 10 EMA crosses under the 20 EMA. Until you mentioned it, I was not aware. And of course isn't that the whole point, being able to time exits and entries correctly.

Thanks again and happy investing.

P.S. You didn't run to the safety of the G Fund just to let me catch up did you? Naaah not the Dreamboat girl.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

DBA, come visit me in SA-RAFB we'll do lunch

Hi JTH, I didn't realize you were just an hour down the road. Would love to, but must decline for now. Too much going on right now, but I'll keep you in mind next time I go down that way. So are you there as part of military or civil service? How long have you been in SA? I'm actually from SA...lots of extended family there. Take care and best wishes with the crazy market! DBAnnie

 

[JTH]

Hi JTH, I didn't realize you were just an hour down the road. Would love to, but must decline for now. Too much going on right now, but I'll keep you in mind next time I go down that way. So are you there as part of military or civil service? How long have you been in SA? I'm actually from SA...lots of extended family there. Take care and best wishes with the crazy market! DBAnnie

Yep, down here in the USAF and from SA to boot, one of these days I'd love to get some folks together and do a TSP meet & greet

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

DBA

First off, thank you for your analysis. I really like that we can exchange ideas which helps to make us better investors in addition to the banter which brings the fire to investing

I just checked out the DWCPF charts for the S Fund. What I see is the uptrend you describe above. All my indicators are not quite there yet, but they are very close. Here is my analysis.

Moving Average - The 10 and 20 EMA are both below the 50 EMA. Todays closing price is also below the 50 EMA. This is a bearish indicator

Slow Stoch - The red line is at 15.34 and the black line is a 25.91. Since the black line is above the red line and moving higher I consider this an indication of higher prices. (Incidently, SS usually crosses over before MACD therefore I use MACD to confirm the SS signal)

MACD - Red line is at 7.13. Black line is a 4.26 and rising. Although the red line is still above the black line they appear to be getting nearer to a positive crossover.

RSI - is at 44.87 far away from overbought or oversold. (20 and 80)

Bollenger Bands - Upper band is at 1051.01. Lower band is at 969.52. Bands have expanded and are far apart. With todays closing price, there is little danger of crossing either band anytime soon.

Conclusion - If I was out of the market, I would be jumping all over the S Fund at this point. Granted, no one can predict what the market will do, but based on these numbers I feel comfortable hanging in. I do think however that I will take another look at my strategy and maybe eliminate at least one indicator and add some hard and fast rules. I liked your analysis on bailing when the 10 EMA crosses under the 20 EMA. Until you mentioned it, I was not aware. And of course isn't that the whole point, being able to time exits and entries correctly.

Thanks again and happy investing.

P.S. You didn't run to the safety of the G Fund just to let me catch up did you? Naaah not the Dreamboat girl.

Hi Raven, Very nice analysis!!! I agree it looks set to move up and it very well may...I expect it to do that. My concern is with the trend and whether it is a true uptrend or if it is a fake out that is preceding further downtrend.

If you Take a quick look at the last highest prices over past month or so .... March 4=1047.54; March 18=1043.78, April 2= 1039.05; April 9=1014.39; and today..April 16th=$995.42), Notice how these highs are not as high as the prior high...This is what is showing the developing downtrend. The market is struggling to go higher but can't achieve it.....thus we are in a downturn.

Now if over the next week we get above 1014.39 or so on DWCPF (S fund), then I would start to get confident that the tide has turned. Otherwise if it falls short and then sinks to a lower low...like below 995 (as is about where we hit to date lowest low on 4/11) then that would confirm a continued down trend. Hoping I described that well enough because that is my main concern and reason for getting out....aside from fact that 10 daily EMA crossed below 20 that occurred on March 26. Now at that point if you had gotten out the next day, price was at $1004, so still a loss. But notice that back on March 13, the candle wick touched the 20 day EMA and the next day on the 14th the candle body broke through the 20 day EMA, but also the next couple days were up before it started heading South. That was the point to get out.....within two days of the wick touching the 20 day EMA. I've been commenting on this since about January because I noticed this type of pattern in studying prior major market drops. There is a small window to get out.

In any case, just wanted to present this in detail. Would love to invite others to study this as well. Well take care and thank you so much for analysis. Best Wishes to you! Your bud DBAnnie!! P.S. No I did not get out to be "nice" to you!! Remember that lasso is still around here on the deck somewhere....watch out I like "happy" meals!!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Yep, down here in the USAF and from SA to boot, one of these days I'd love to get some folks together and do a TSP meet & greet

Hi JTH, That's a great idea. Wonder how many folks are here in Central Texas and would be willing to meet up. Maybe a few will pop up and express interest.