DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

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DreamboatAnnie said:
Your Welcome!!! :D

Now oil started going up yesterday around 1:30pm (central time) or so. I heard that oil started going up at that time because reportedly the Iranians started talking to producers in South America with Saudi Arabia to possibly come to agreement on limiting production. hum...Great news! But is that real or was that news produced? Is it coincidence that these news leaks happen around 1-2pm each afternoon? The fix is in...its fairly obvious.

I mean really... what time is it in Iran when we are at 1-2pm in the afternoon. Is it midnight there and so that is when we finally get the rumor? Just seems we are being toyed with and someone is making a ton of coin on this news..to our detriment. :sick:
Click to expand...

That's the same suspicion I had around the time they were on again-off again WRT interest rate hikes. Oh, no rate hike soon... market goes up; Oh, might have to hike rates... market goes down. That went on for months...
 
Glad I got off that roller coaster ride. I cannot even put my arms around the dynamics moving the markets. Whenever I think I have a handle on things...another stone is unturned with something scary underneath it. Lately I have seen some Europe Banks in distress, oil credit market fixing to collapse, Iran dumping more oil on the market, recession, bear market, market correction, oil in the 20s, and so much more. The fact is...the Bull Market is dead...so 11 to 17 percent 2016 market loss is still in play. That is the only true fact on my scope that has solid underpinnings.
 
Very good video on markets from one of my favorites..Chris Ciovacco. Lots can be learned from this on moving averages and trends. Hope you are having a great weekend! Best wishes to everyone!!!!!!!! :smile:

 
Hi! Here are a few charts I was looking at a bit ago.

DWCPF -S Fund -daily -6 months
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XX:DWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XX:DWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com


Longer 3 year view...just wanted to see the last time prices were at todays level...Answer: July 2013
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XX:DWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XX:DWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

Definitely not the time to be in equities unless you just jumped in due to the down action and you are hoping to gain a little coin on a very short-term "relief" rally, and okay with the high risk.

IMHO... I would not even call these dead cat bounces!

Charts continue to show prices are trending down.
-Slow Stochastics -down sloped below its signla line
-MACD-turning below its signal line again and well below the zero line
-DailyEMAs -10 below 20, 20 below 50 and not shown on chart but 50 below 100, 100 below 200. All lines down sloped
-Bollinger Bands -constricted and look to be bowing out (indicates big action coming) with price below the lower Band
-RSI - below 50 and dropping

Good evening and Best Wishes on your Investments!!!!!! :smile:

P.S. This is off topic but looks like bad weather in East....i guess we will see how it effect voting tomorrow...
 
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Good observations DBA. Just trying to figure out when the counter rally begins...I'm thinking somewhere around 1790.

FS
 
I am not sure when the counter rally starts on the C fund. The price is already at the October 2014 level. Price just started to ride a constricted and looks like ready to expand Bollinger Band... but price is riding the lower band. Slow Stochastic is heading down and not yet hit 20. On the C fund (SPX), MACD is now touching its signal line and changed direction...moving down. RSI also sloped down. I am definitely passing on an entry right now. Could be we have some more down action.... but then again Yellin does speak on Wed/Thurs.... maybe she will try to comfort the market and that could provide a very short term (temporary) rally.

I like to wait until Slow Stochastic at least crosses above its signal line moving up above 20, headed in the right direction with a steep slope up. Also prefer that MACD confirm it by sloping up as well... even if it doesn't quite get to cross above its signal line. Best if it does. But if you were to wait for the MACD to actually cross its signal line, by then the rally is almost dead--two days max. So if you go in a bit earlier, when MACD is up but not yet above its signal line--that would be good... still I would try to stay in only a few days. LOL... Don't get greedy like me....this market is taking more than it gives!!!!! :D Also, the downtrend/small bear is not yet over and looks like it could morph into a downright ferociously hungry Grizzly.

Best Wishes to Everyone on Your Investments!!!!!!!!!! :smile:

S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com
 
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DreamboatAnnie said:
I am not sure when the counter rally starts. I like to wait until Slow Stochastic at least cross above its signal line moving up above 20, headed in the right direction with a steep slope up. Also prefer that MACD confirm it by sloping up as well... even if it doesn't quite get to cross above its signal line. Best if it does. But if you were to wait for the MACD to actually cross its signal line, by then the rally is almost dead--two days max. So if you go in a bit earlier, when MACD is up but not yet above its signal line... still try to stay in only a few days. LOL... Don't get greedy like me....this market is taking more than it gives!!!!! :D

Best Wishes to Everyone on Your Investments!!!!!!!!!! :smile:
Click to expand...

Back in...saw it yesterday...the banks got a bite yesterday before close. Those greedy wall street puppets tipped their hands. Will follow on it.
 
Since its height in June 2015, the C fund (SPX) has lost about 13.17% to date. So that is how much a buy and holder would be down during that period. This is not yet considered "correction" territory. (Note: Figures used: 2125 compared to market now at 1845, difference -280 drop) So if C fund is going to catch up with S fund, it still has a ways to go---but another way to look at it is that it is the stronger of the two funds. Also, I think I heard last year that S fund typically falls before C fund. So are we on our last leg before the big drop???? Humm.....


Since its height in June 015, the S fund (DWCPF) has lost about 24.94% to date. So that is how much a buy and holder would be down during that period. In my book, this is definitely in "correction" territory. (Note: Figures used: 1140 compared to market now at 855.73, difference -284.27 drop)
 
Yep... I have been trying to stick more with the technical indicators but market has a billion moving parts and sometimes the news is just as good!!! :smile: Best wishes to you FTC!!!
felixthecat said:
Back in...saw it yesterday...the banks got a bite yesterday before close. Those greedy wall street puppets tipped their hands. Will follow on it.
Click to expand...
 
That is where I'm at I'm down about 15% since the height. It's too late to back out now so I'll keep buying.

DreamboatAnnie said:
Since its height in June 2015, the C fund (SPX) has lost about 13.17% to date. So that is how much a buy and holder would be down during that period. This is not yet considered "correction" territory. (Note: Figures used: 2125 compared to market now at 1845, difference -280 drop) So if C fund is going to catch up with S fund, it still has a ways to go---but another way to look at it is that it is the stronger of the two funds. Also, I think I heard last year that S fund typically falls before C fund. So are we on our last leg before the big drop???? Humm.....


Since its height in June 015, the S fund (DWCPF) has lost about 24.94% to date. So that is how much a buy and holder would be down during that period. In my book, this is definitely in "correction" territory. (Note: Figures used: 1140 compared to market now at 855.73, difference -284.27 drop)
Click to expand...
 
Fed's Yellen cites global risks but says U.S. should motor through

chris 1 minute ago
I'll make her speech in layman's terms.
"We'll raise the rate, if any downside risk happens, it's caused by global weak economic outlook, especially from china, not us. So all decision we're going to make, is necessary, and don't blame us."

Motor through?

So this old fossil sees us putt-putting our way across the Dust Bowl in an old Model-T to some dream financial Oasis??

A truly Useless woman.

Happy Motoring!!
 
FAB1 said:
Fed's Yellen cites global risks but says U.S. should motor through

chris 1 minute ago
I'll make her speech in layman's terms.
"We'll raise the rate, if any downside risk happens, it's caused by global weak economic outlook, especially from china, not us. So all decision we're going to make, is necessary, and don't blame us."

Motor through?

So this old fossil sees us putt-putting our way across the Dust Bowl in an old Model-T to some dream financial Oasis??

A truly Useless woman.

Happy Motoring!!
Click to expand...

Agreed. "Elections have consequences."

Frank
 
Yellin will be speaking again tomorrow. Believe she goes before a Senate committee. Wonder if they will ask her if December rate hike was mistake, and about legality of negative rates.
 
Well... I am thinking to enter today, but I really do not like it.

If I go in it would be 50%C/ 50%F as I only have 1 IFT left this month. Since I would be using it with thought to get out in a few days, I could exit from C and leave the rest in F for the remainder of month.

So, now what? I don't like this short rally because I think part of it is due to Saudi Arabia and Russia talking about a freeze (not a drop in production). Then, I understand they will be meeting with Iraq and Iran on Wednesday. Supposedly it is not expected to go good because Iran has so far refused to cut its already low production level. Since it has not been allowed to trade in so long they are looking to increase production... so prospects on that front are not the greatest. Inventories for oil come out in a report on early Wednesday morning... that has been affecting market each week as well.

Uggh... tough decision this morning. Looking at charts, C fund has Slow Sto and now the MACD with todays action moving upward. Slow Sto at 60 and MACD is well below zero but just now crossing its signal line upward. So this is the same boat we were in a couple weeks ago on the last buy in but we exited one day too late or early depending on when you executed.

Still thinking about it. No matter how you look a this it is high risk. Not sure I like the odds. But could be our last play for equities this month. hum........

Best wishes to everyone on your investments!!!!!!!!! :smile:
 
Okay.. and now I look at chart and see that price is almost up to the 20 day EMA. That looks like resistance to me. Not to say it couldn't go through it like butter but my point is that in looking at width of Bollinger bands we are nearly to the mid-point. So that tells me likelihood is that price goes up just a bit more and then goes back to hit a lower low. (I.e. as long as we are still seeing this as a downtrend overall). Starting to veer away from entry today.... but still have time to mull it over.

S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com
 
okay... confirmation as far as I am concerned. Not entering today... still thinking about just entering F fund though, but probably will not do that as it would rob me of any ability to enter equities for rest of month. I should have stayed in F fund earlier this month when I exited the equities. Will need to remember that for next time.

Here is the Intraday- 5 minute chart on C fund (SPX) and it does show the price is now reversing .... looks like it hit resistance at 1887 just a few points below the 1890 20-day EMA.

S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com
 
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