DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

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DreamboatAnnie said:
LOL...:D See whatI have to work with??? I need subscribe to Stockcharts.com ...KK you have me rolling!! I need a new computer (2 in 1)...hard t work with ipad2(t)...forever to type msg...ugg.
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LOL! Hey, you didn't create that chart, not your fault. It just reminded me of an etch a sketch. I'm sure it makes perfect sense to someone with a trained eye for graphs.:eek:

Yes, using an iPad for typing long messages is inconvenient. Maybe Santa will bring you a new computer this year.....have you been good?! ;)
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Hi...Just some info I heard this morning on FBN.

Market down this morn..oil dropped to $35.82, that is driving market a lot per guy named DR Barton. Deflation fears. But he accentuated something happened Wednesday Where a company, Third Avenue with high yield fund has suspended redemption so folks can't take money out of Mutual fund. Said this is red flag. Said markets are so IL- liquid (unliquid) in that high yield market. Said when dominoes like that start to fall, this is something to watch as it will reverberate through the market. Got this almost Word Per word... Rewinded to take notes. I will need to research this more. But doesn't sound too good.

IAE reporting oil glut in 2016.

fBN pit guy, wears crazy cow jacket, says 3rd quarter had earnings recession. Wall street will take market further down.

Okay. All i have been hearing is market going down more. I say look at charts posted yesterday. Is it too late to exit??? Not if it goes down a lot more.... But no crystal ball.

But IMHO...market not healthy overall. The highs were made in mid-Summer. Look at 2-4 year charts. Looks like we are in down trend. Yes it will go up and down so short term plays in order....buy and hold in equities not good now. We are not making higher highs and higher lows. I think market will stay like this for two years....ugghhh.. Tough to make money in that environment and very easy to lose money. Not trying to scare anyone...just my opinion. Take with grain of salt.

Best wishes to all on your investments!!!!!! :smile:
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Found article on Third Avenue!
High-yield debt fund blocks investors from withdrawing funds as junk bonds swoon - MarketWatch

Repost of article Whipsaw posted that gives the big picture...Thank you WS! On FBN, it was reported that the high yield junk bonds have big exposure to energy sector, but in looking at numbers drop for Third Avenue (incredible!) looks like investors are fleeing the high risk bond.....moving to safer investents--taking money off table....and...less $$ in market not good for stocks.

Why the junk bond selloff is getting very scary - MarketWatch

Now this led me to this article on what bond sellff means to stock market!

This chart warns that stock market investors should be on high alert - MarketWatch

Best Wishes to everyone and have a good weekend!!!!!!!!!! :smile:
And hope you can enjoy a few mind-altering refreshments! Aye Caramba...give me a couple tequila shots, and a BIG margarita on the rocks!!
 
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Good article DBA. Very detailed. Of specific note to me as potentially negative for the markets are (1) the worsening state of affairs between Russia and Turkey (2) Turkish troops being deployed to Iraq (my presumption is for the protection of the ISIS controlled oil fields (3) Potential major Ukranian bond default to Russia (4) US spy plane being deployed in Singapore. I can see any of these making headlines and causing markets to pullback further.

Thanks,

FS
 
And ye shall hear of wars and rumours of wars: see that ye be not troubled: for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet.
Matthew 24:6

​
We are not that far away from ATH's to declare the bull dead. Safehaven is regular reading, but they are very bearish. If I feel bearish it, I believe them. If I feel bullish, I discount them. I bought in on Friday's closing price in L2030 because, I went from bearish to bullish. Actually, I am neither, not good enough to say which way the market will wind up heading in the next few days, weeks, months.

I do keep saying saying I am going to do like like John Bogle and throw away my end of month statement and stay fully invested in funds I am comfortable with until I get close to retirement. Easy to say, harder to do. I used to do that when I was actively contributing to my IRA and TSP. Tougher when one is no longer DCA'ing.

If we are in a bear market there are still ST and IT opportunities. Tomorrow, this could all blow up in my face, but I think we are at least ST oversold, oil will stabilize and China came in with decent economic numbers on Saturday so we are due for a relief rally and Don't fight the Fed. None of them want an economic apocalypse on their watch and they are in the silent period where they are forbidden to talk, so we are left with only our fears.

FogSailing said:
Good article DBA. Very detailed. Of specific note to me as potentially negative for the markets are (1) the worsening state of affairs between Russia and Turkey (2) Turkish troops being deployed to Iraq (my presumption is for the protection of the ISIS controlled oil fields (3) Potential major Ukranian bond default to Russia (4) US spy plane being deployed in Singapore. I can see any of these making headlines and causing markets to pullback further.

Thanks,

FS
Click to expand...
 
Looking at charts, considering what may or may not happen Wednesday with Fed, considering possible further oil drop, and something that might happen on Friday with options expiry ( need to read up more on that) and with high yield junk bonds being vacated by investors causing liquidity to dry up (which would affect stock market negatively overall), it looks like high probability that coming week has further drops. Pile on top of that that we look like we peaked in Summer and market is reversing to a longer term down trend of a year or two, i think prospects are not good. But no one knows what will happen.

To me this Just means investment strategy needs to change. This means buy and hold in equities strategy could kill the portfolio. Definitely time to do short buy in and outs when market is bouncing off lower Bollinger band and when Slow Stochastic is below 20 and starting to rise...getting out on the short term rise;and not expecting that if you get in at top you can just stick out a big drop and recover everything in a month or so like we could do in 2013 and 2014 and earlier this year. That is because We are no longer making higher highs and higher lows overall, as can be demonstrated on a one year chart.

That said, it could turn around if companies start showing better earnings reports and better economics overall.

But until I see higher highs and higher lows, I continue to believe we are in a downtrend and need to recognize this is a very risky environment and need to use short plays to make any money.

As usual, finding those short term bottoms and tops will be critical but more difficult to hit with the volatility that will likely continue in 2016. Also, very high risk that we will see major, very fast downturns. Eventually we will experience massive downturn, but likely will just steadily keep moving up and down with the net being down overall for a time.

IMHO..Anyone that wants to retire in next 5 years will seriously need to develop their downtrend strategy and for me it likely means exposures at only about 50% for a few days but maybe just a little longer depending on charts and news, and NEVER lose sight of knowledge it is a downturn we are in until charts prove otherwise. I doubt we will reach the highs of Oct/November again for a long time. This is just my opinion. No crystal ball here! But making money is still possible so I will work towards that.... But it is tough no matter what. We all know we are Not on an even footing with institutional investors and day traders... 2 IFTs per month and 4 hours between our IFT and actual execution...definitely have hands tied behind our backs.

Hummm..... Let's just hope we don't get knocked out like Aldo last night in the UFC championship. :chairshot: That guy looked like he walked into the ring half asleep! Don't lean into the punch, Stay alert and Keep your eyes open!!!

Best Wishes to everyone on your Investments!!!!!!!! :smile:
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Very good article...packed with valuable info. eye-opening..really!!! Sections on Global,US and China bubbles also good.

The Precipice | Doug Noland | Safehaven.com

Best Wishes on your investments!!!!!!!! :smile:
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Good Evening!

While this is a safehaven.com article, which some consider too bearish, I found this article to be good because it summarizes and consolidates a lot of information into one article that Could have effect on future market action.

I think the following sections are of particular interest (as it is a very long article)
--Paragraphs 6-8
--Paragraphs 18-21
--Global bubble
--U.S bubble
--China bubble
--Fixed Income bubble (junk bonds that could affect equities-this is about the 8th article I've read that mentions/shows concern with Third Avenue's demise ....liquidity effects on market)
--Central bank (EU info) watch.

Best wishes to you on your investments!!!!!!! :smile:
DBAnnie
 
It's gonna be big! Finally found an article discussing stock option expiry this Friday---"Quadruple-witching". It could be a huge week.....but which way??

Volatility the surest bet in stocks after Fed meets | Reuters

Article says "A slew of economic data due to be released before the Fed meeting, including readings on growth in manufacturing, industrial production and consumer prices...". question is when does that come out?

Article also says, "...could cause some choppiness if traders take any robust data as a sign that the Fed may be more aggressive with future rate increases.". So good news would be bad again..the Catch 22 with Fed continues..:blink:
 
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Per Newsfeed article..economic data for this week:


"Tuesday sees the publishing of the U.S. consumer-price index for November, the release of a quarterly bulletin by the Bank of England (the UK’s central bank), a US Justice Department deadline to decide on Halliburton’s takeover of oil services rival Baker Hughes, and earnings from Jefferies Group and Prada.

Wednesday brings news on US housing starts for November, 2016 earnings guidance from conglomerate Honeywell International, an investor outlook meeting by General Electric chief executive Jeffrey Immelt, and earnings from FedEx Corp.

Thursday sees a summit of European Union leaders in Brussels to discuss the demands of the UK as it seeks to renegotiate the terms of its membership, an update on the US current account balance, and earnings from Red Hat, Accenture and General Mills.

On Friday, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond president Jeffrey Lacker will present his economic forecast for the US economy in 2016 at a conference in North Carolina, Baker Hughes will publish its closely-watched count of oil and gas rigs in the US, and earnings are expected from Darden Restaurants and Lennar."
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
It's gonna be big! Finally found an article discussing stock option expiry this Friday---"Quadruple-witching". It could be a huge week.....but which way??

Volatility the surest bet in stocks after Fed meets | Reuters

Article says "A slew of economic data due to be released before the Fed meeting, including readings on growth in manufacturing, industrial production and consumer prices...". question is when does that come out?

Article also says, "...could cause some choppiness if traders take any robust data as a sign that the Fed may be more aggressive with future rate increases.". So good news would be bad again..the Catch 22 with Fed continues..:blink:
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Primary points in article:

"We are seeing a lot of heavy positioning" in front of the Fed, said Steven Sosnick, equity risk manager for Timber Hill, the market-making division of Interactive Brokers.

That positioning is leaning more heavily toward seeking protection against a broad stock market move lower, said traders who expect volatility to spike after the Fed meeting.

S&P 500 .SPX options expiring next Friday imply a 2.9 percent move in the index by the end of the week."



"But a sharp move to the downside could be amplified since the Fed decision comes just two days ahead of "quadruple-witching," when options on stocks and indexes and futures on indexes and single-stocks all expire, making the index particularly prone to a jump in volatility.

JPMorgan derivatives analysts estimate that nearly $1.1 trillion of S&P 500 options are set to expire on Friday morning, about 60 percent in put options, typically used as portfolio hedges.

In case of an adverse reaction in stocks, the accumulation of large blocks of open SPX put contracts at the 2,000, 1,950, and 1,900 levels, could force more selling. Market makers who have sold those contracts would be forced to sell equities to reduce their risk.

This kind of activity was one of the key reasons for the market selloff in late August, when the S&P entered its first correction in more than four years." [Emphasis added]
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Primary points in article:

"We are seeing a lot of heavy positioning" in front of the Fed, said Steven Sosnick, equity risk manager for Timber Hill, the market-making division of Interactive Brokers.

That positioning is leaning more heavily toward seeking protection against a broad stock market move lower, said traders who expect volatility to spike after the Fed meeting.

S&P 500 .SPX options expiring next Friday imply a 2.9 percent move in the index by the end of the week."



"But a sharp move to the downside could be amplified since the Fed decision comes just two days ahead of "quadruple-witching," when options on stocks and indexes and futures on indexes and single-stocks all expire, making the index particularly prone to a jump in volatility.

JPMorgan derivatives analysts estimate that nearly $1.1 trillion of S&P 500 options are set to expire on Friday morning, about 60 percent in put options, typically used as portfolio hedges.

In case of an adverse reaction in stocks, the accumulation of large blocks of open SPX put contracts at the 2,000, 1,950, and 1,900 levels, could force more selling. Market makers who have sold those contracts would be forced to sell equities to reduce their risk.

This kind of activity was one of the key reasons for the market selloff in late August, when the S&P entered its first correction in more than four years." [Emphasis added]
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Could be a 'perfect storm'... and if the Fed doesn't rates?
 
Whipsaw said:
Could be a 'perfect storm'... and if the Fed doesn't [increas] rates?
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It would show lack of confidence and market drop. Not sure which would be worse. I still think Santa will come... Part of me wants to jump in now, but part wants to wait until after Fed talks. May mean I miss bottom. But at this point not wiling to take risk. Maybe mistake.
 
Fed will move to raise rates. No doubt. The market will rally no doubt after skipping a beat of course for mellow drama. Oil will spike. Only real question...will market rally one day...then end the year on a sour note. Does somebody have a gauge on the smart money for confirmation? Volatility would certainly rule the rest of the year if we don't get a convincing bump up this week. I sense a stampede of hoofs behind me...possibly scarring away the Bulls currently roiling over me right now?
 
Still thinking about partial entry today...was going in a day early because of great return yesterday and this mornings lift, but once additional inventories of oil reported, oil prices started dropping and with it the market. Geezzz... Gotta decide soon.

Best wishes to you all!!!!!!! :smile:

Decided...in 25S/25C..uggh. I dislike this market! Will see...
Come o Santa...drop us some cookies!
 
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