DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

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So I already said this on FS's thread but will repeat:

There is a meeting this afternoon that Yellin will speak at. Then she talks again tomorrow morning giving testimony before Congress. Then Dec 15/16 FOMC and the decision on interest rates. I read she most likely would not say anything to change anything up this afternoon or tomorrow, but who knows. Every word will be dissected and taken in by the market.

Then OPEC meets on Friday but supposedly Saudi Arabia will not go with any change to production so that seems moot. Also, since crude is tracking down a bit, might mean more downside to market if it doesn't go up. Then the big one is the jobs report on Friday. If its not good, then that might mean no rate hike..... but who knows. It's crazy.....

Also heard this morning that the GDP numbers were revised down. I should think that will affect market. it was dropped down below 2. Humm.....

So maybe this morning the market action is being affected by the GDP revision??????? Don't know. Need to decide on the exit. DWCPF looks good but really, not sure if it will break out further or go back down to 18-20 SMA support. Don't want to miss upside but ugghhh.... Will decide soon.

Best wishes to you and everyone on your investments!!!!!!!!
 
Good thoughts DBA. Lot of stuff floating out there that a rate hike will somehow end the great bull run. I disagree. Counter theory is the rate hike will send a signal that things are stabilizing and the economy is healthy. In theory that's a positive and tells people it's safe to invest in companies and its safe to go out and spend money on goods and services. In theory it also prevents a bubble from forming by trying to cool off hyperaccelerated growth. To me a rate hike would be an indicator that the bull should extend well into 2016. All that's theoretical of course (meaning all the stuff about stability and healthy economic environment). We still have a lot of other "stuff" to deal with: shrinking middle class, stagnant wage growth, illusionary good employment, ISIS, destabilizing Europe, environmental challenges, and on, and on, and on ... not to mention it's all unfolding at the front of an ideologically charged election year. So, bumpy ride ahead, but overall I see positives for 2016.
 
That's an ugly turn south, couldn't log in in time to bail; was considering taking profits this morning; an impromptu meeting clobbered me!
 
anthony said:
Good thoughts DBA. Lot of stuff floating out there that a rate hike will somehow end the great bull run. I disagree. Counter theory is the rate hike will send a signal that things are stabilizing and the economy is healthy. In theory that's a positive and tells people it's safe to invest in companies and its safe to go out and spend money on goods and services. In theory it also prevents a bubble from forming by trying to cool off hyperaccelerated growth. To me a rate hike would be an indicator that the bull should extend well into 2016. All that's theoretical of course (meaning all the stuff about stability and healthy economic environment). We still have a lot of other "stuff" to deal with: shrinking middle class, stagnant wage growth, illusionary good employment, ISIS, destabilizing Europe, environmental challenges, and on, and on, and on ... not to mention it's all unfolding at the front of an ideologically charged election year. So, bumpy ride ahead, but overall I see positives for 2016.
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Anthony, I wish I had your confidence about 2016. I am just going to try to stick with my strategy this coming year. If I follow it, I think it will all work out. I think it will be a bumpy road in 2016 with economy and more stress about rate hikes, and I expect to see an ugly drop once the economic truths can no longer be put off... but who knows when that will happen... I surely do not know. No real crystal ball here!! :smile:
 
Whipsaw said:
That's an ugly turn south, couldn't log in in time to bail; was considering taking profits this morning; an impromptu meeting clobbered me!
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Hi Whipsaw, Agree it was an ugly turn south. Just now seeing it. Gosh it happened right after I logged out after deciding to stay in. But that is okay. I would not have wanted to get out if it was nose diving. I kinda figured after a nice day yesterday, some would go back. Just hope it doesn't negate the last two days (Mon- down/ Tue - Up). So will look at exit tomorrow. Wondering what caused the quick drop around 10:45am Eastern???? Anyone know??? Humm......:dunno:
 
Wiff007 said:
I thought about bailing too, but don't wanna jump yet this early into the month :(
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I just want to get out early enough in an up cycle to recover most from this buy, then be positioned to enter if and when the pre-Santa Rally drop occurs. I want to be in a new buy (entering at the bottom) this time and see some nice gains from Santa!! :biggthumpup: Best wishes!!!!!! :smile:
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Hi Whipsaw, Agree it was an ugly turn south. Just now seeing it. Gosh it happened right after I logged out after deciding to stay in. But that is okay. I would not have wanted to get out if it was nose diving. I kinda figured after a nice day yesterday, some would go back. Just hope it doesn't negate the last two days (Mon- down/ Tue - Up). So will look at exit tomorrow. Wondering what caused the quick drop around 10:45am Eastern???? Anyone know??? Humm......:dunno:
Click to expand...

Yellen is yellin' again... Yellen moves Fed to brink of December rate hike - MarketWatch
 
Whipsaw said:
The San Bernardino terrorist attack happened around the same time, affecting the market at well.
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Yes... I do believe it affected the afternoon action (11am Pacific/2pm Eastern). I believe the initial drop occurred around the time Yellin was speaking or getting ready to speak. Reception was at 11am Eastern. Not sure what is going on today. Best wishes to you Whipsaw! :smile:
 
Hello, Well from the looks of things this morning, what Yellin said yesterday and probably this morning to Congress is sinking in. Apparently Market does not like it. Too late to cut and run I think.

Then again… just read article RMI posted about S&P downgrade of large banks. That is significant and so I think maybe that could be having the bigger impact today. This is not good… so what now brown cow???

I will stick it out with 30% exposure until tomorrow and then make a decision in the morning. Maybe we get a nice surprise tomorrow (if OPEC decides to decrease production???). No…. not buying in more at this point….Saving that move for the Fed Meeting two weeks from now.

Wish I had exited Tuesday….woulda –coulda- shoulda!!
My original strategy was out on Tue or Wed. I did not know Yellin was speaking Wednesday at that luncheon (well not until after the cutoff on Tuesday). If I had known that, I would have exited on Tuesday. So Wednesday was too late. Looking forward now to the next plan…. :scratchchin:


Best Wishes to Everyone on Your Investments!!!!!!!!!! :smile:
 
It is awfully quiet this morning.

I really want to exit. Fear is that over the weekend those who did not exit will rethink it and do it on Monday. I'm only in 30% but that was a huge drop these last couple days ...even with that little exposure.

When the last knife fell, I jumped out. Locked in the loss. I tried to promise myself I would not do that again and stick in there. So wondering if I should avoid the exit...try to stick with it in hopes that next week will get better (going against seasonality???).

I am lucky only in that I can buy in more once I think we hit a bottom to reduce the loss on the way up. However, I can understand where anyone with 100% skin the game is making a tough decision today. So was what happened over the last two days the Market fully pricing in the fear of the rate hike??? Or is there more to come? I don't know.

I don't want to influence anyone with my comments. This is just something to think about. I guess I will be making a decision in the next hour. NOT yet sure what to do.

Maybe by next week folks will calm down and a leg up will begin ...lets see next week is Dec 7-11, then the next week we hit into the Mid-week Fed meeting again. So is there time next week for the Market to recover some? Possibly. Bottom line is that no one knows what this market will do.

My first reaction is to exit. My second reaction is to fight against that and do the opposite. What a screwed up mind game this is.

Best wishes to everyone on your investments!!!!!!!! :smile:

P.S. More Fed persons talk today. One later this morning I believe, another after 4 and possibly one later in the evening. Gosh see this positive article. Starting to lean towards staying in.

U.S. stocks: Dow industrials jump 200 points after solid jobs report - MarketWatch
 
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Intraday charts:

C fund
S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

S fund
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XX:DWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XX:DWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

Looks like dip buyers stepping in a bit this morning. But what happens in the afternoon? Don't know... but right now we are at +1.39 in C fund (moving ball). For now...Very Nice! But can we keep it if we stay in through next week?

At this point, I am thinking to STAY IN. might not be the right decision. Might be kicking myself twice as hard next week. Going with my gut on this one. I am screaming to exit...on the inside... believe me... just had to grab a chocolate treat to calm myself down. I told myself earlier in the week I would exit on Tue/Wed... I did not stick with the plan. Whole point was to AVOID the stress of what would be happening Thur/Fri. Didn't know Janet was talking Wed or would have exited Tue. UGGGH ... READ my lips! I WILL NOT BE in the market From Dec 14 to Dec 16!! :pat: I am NOT going to do that to myself again. STICKY PANTS DEPLOYED due to my not following my strategy earlier this week. :notrust: But I WILL DO BETTER!!!! I MUST DO BETTER!!!!! :shysmile:

If the Market does not rise next week for a good exit on Wed/Thur/Fri, then who knows... I may need to go totally insane and just stay in until the End of December. well... unless I become better enlightened somehow. :rolleyes: Best Wishes to you all!!!!!!!!!!!! :smile:
 
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It's a bit nutty DBA. History says next week is normally a "weak week" but the bots have gone against the historic trends for the last 3 pullbacks so I'm really fretting this decision. If on Monday, the marker were to move above 2097, it's BLASOFF, BUT if it doesn't, I see a pullback potentially to 1991. So, it's a big decision.

FS
 
FINAL DECISION - STAYING IN!!! Best Wishes to Everyone on your investments!!!!!!!!! :smile:

Hope you all have a great weekend! :D
I am about to pass out now!
 
Myself I'm gonna look at the premium services here more this weekend. Haven't had time yet to do that. the intrepid timer is one im looking at most.
 
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