DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

[tsptalk]

This is the first time I have ever watched the market go down like this. I am assuming things could get a lot worse.

I'm totally not saying that this IS what is going to happen, just what is possible just looking back at the COVID crash. Today we are seeing the first cracks in the S&P's intermediate term uptrend - something that happened in Feb. 2020. Small caps have done this a while back.

 

[joblin20]

Wow, very nerve racking. Imagine all the folks who never monitor the market. I can definitely appreciate the work that is put in to be active with your nest egg.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I am with Tom on this. C fund has cracked. see it cut below the longer term blue trendline on chart. I will likely exit tomorrow. Really do not want to, but I have hit my stop loss of 2%. I can only hope tomorrow is not as bad as today so I can exit to make some back on exit of S and C. If the I fund gaps up tomorrow morning, I would consider keeping it, as that would form an abandoned baby pattern, which is bullish.. But I just doubt it will happen...

 

[FAAM]

I am with Tom on this. C fund has cracked. see it cut below the longer term blue trendline on chart. I will likely exit tomorrow... View attachment 52837

Wow - I've had a minor spread of my total TSP across CSI & a little in F, most in G - since mid-December... was on vacation and mostly ignored the markets; now just retired, but getting going too late to make IFT yet & hoping for decent January overall. Reading your posts and charts, hmmmm. Need to set the alarm clock (West Coast) to consider IFT more to G tomorrow also. Thanks for your Forum posts all!
With your last chart today DBA, for S&P500, looks now, the lines for RSI, MACD, etc. now are similar to about OCT 28-30 timeframe 2021 (no?); if so, maybe there's hope for at turn upward - maybe a DCB, in next couple of days. Yet there are other factors and indicators to weigh-in I'm sure.:suspicious:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Here are charts right out of the gate... I am unable to post rest of day. I will need to decide on exit while on the road...ugghh. May need to put it off a day.
No abandoned baby on I fund....whaaaa!

Keeping my smile on...but, I do hate losing money. Best wishes to everyone!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

charts
Arrows on S chart emphasize major Moving Average crossovers. Options expire tomorrow so it could be volatile...:dunno:

 

[shitepoke]

DBA. Are you heading to safety G this a.m. ??

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Gosh... Maybe short-term bottom?????... Waiting another day. I have been mulling it over... Should probably at least reduce and exit partly, but decided to wait...hope I don't regret it.

 

[kb9nvh]

I'm with ya dba!! I did nothing... frozen in the headlights..

 

[felixthecat]

Gosh... Maybe short-term bottom?????... Waiting another day. I have been mulling it over... Should probably at least reduce and exit partly, but decided to wait...hope I don't regret it.

Well…the rest of the month on average is mostly seasonal positive. Since already rolled up a loss…will hold here at this time. Not looking for any big gains but maybe get some of the loss back. S fund short term really oversold. May provide 2-3 day rally inbetween a minor pullback. To be completed by Tuesday of next week. Will look again Mon/Tues to see where I stand.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Yes Felix, looks like we might get a day or two reprieve, but then we have Fed meetings to deal with on Tuesday/Wednesday, so will see what is said Wednesday. Hoping there are no surprises for market. They have been talking lots so hope they don't give specific number of rate increases, or at least say its data dependent...hummm.

 

[Epic]

I'm in the same boat as all y'all .....

I could've bailed, but I know as soon as I do we'll have a massive rally to the up side, and I'll miss it. Already gone down too far for that. Gotta hang tough and soldier on.
I am a tad worried about the Russia / Ukraine thing. That could get really ugly quick, and who knows what THAT would do........ but for now I'm hangin in there.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Yes, FOMO is strong but I have had enough. Just hoping we get a chance to jump off with a real bounce before the downhill fully crashes! This morning, it looked good for exit but started tanking at midday. I want to move out in steps to try to avoid bad exit. I believe more pain is coming. Hope I am wrong!

 

[quabit]

Yes, FOMO is strong but I have had enough. Just hoping we get a chance to jump off with a real bounce before the downhill fully crashes! This morning, it looked good for exit but started tanking at midday. I want to move out in steps to try to avoid bad exit. I believe more pain is coming. Hope I am wrong!

DB this is what happened to me back in Nov and early Dec. I stuck around thinking I could make some back and I did but still ended up finishing the year down .75. The S fund dropped faster then I thought it would being the seasonality should have been in play. I was hoping this year would be better I'm down but I did keep some powder dry for when ever. Best of luck.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Agree Quabit. I have allowed myself to continue down the rabbit hole in hopes of a reversal or at least short bounce. But any small pops now being sold earlier in day and the rest of the masses have their shares sold in afternoon... fleeing.

Sound 1-minute chart for last two days. The other charts look the same...

 

[joblin20]

I am wanting to jump in, however like you said, its almost impossible to play this when the afternoon selling kicks into a higher gear. I played around with some indicators, however they only work if we have stabilization. Right now there is none.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Very true Joblin! Check out link given by Tsunami. I read up on Twitter post by Master Panda Wu. Looks like he uses Technical Analysis, Elliott Wave Theory and Sentiment survey and likely many other factors. So yes, we have been in a second drop, it should bounce by then likely will be a third drop. Who knows...maybe more after that. Will see...need to make a higher high before I can believe the downtrend is ending and it seems this will not end anytime soon.

If Fed says something comforting on Wednesday, it may help settle market short-term. But with Russia getting ready for a "small" incursion into Ukraine, I fear even more for my 45% now sitting in I fund. I am overexposed no matter which way I look. Also, I do believe more economic numbers come out Thursday/Friday.

Bes wishes to you and everyone! :smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

During Maria Bartiromo's Sunday morning futures show, it was reported that the families of US diplomats were asked to start vacating Ukraine. I actually screamed when I heard this news! Heck...I am in I fund 45% and 90% with C and S. ...:worried: It's bad enough the market dropped so much last week and now this???

Well, I should think it will affect markets in the short term, but inflation is the bigger bogey man. Just trying to keep it all in perspective but damn, can we pile anything else on? I just checked futures and they are positive! Wheewwe...so let's see how this week proceeds!

https://www.foxnews.com/world/state-department-orders-evacuation-of-diplomats-families-from-ukraine-embassy

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/president-biden-weighing-sending-troops-to-counter-russia

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Here are daily charts BUT these are for 15 months so you will not be able to see much detail. I like looking at it to get a good broad perspective on overall market action. Then go to look at weekly charts and then 3-5 month daily charts for closer look. I looked back at the 2008 crash and it took more than a year to finally bottom.

If we get a bounce this week, I am looking to exit around 2029 to 2065 on S fund, 4522 to 4560 on C fund. These are based on 38.2 and 50% Fibonacci retracements. I did not mention 61.8 retracements because in last couple months the bounces only hit about 50% so that level seems most probable.

 

[Guest]

Not looking great, futures now down. Looking likely another red day. This market stinks.

Someone lot smarter then me says "S fund leads the way for what C fund is gonna do." If that true, looks like it's gonna be a while till we hit bottom on C fund.