DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

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Charts look great. Vix embedded to the Downside and Spy embedded to the Upside. Can't get much better. Go C-Fund!!! :35:
 
Hi DBA,

Sorry about your issues getting logged in. I am getting your emails and I have replied each time but gmail sucks and blocks most of my emails, especially if I have a link in them.

I have replied this morning via a gmail account, so hopefully you get that one. It has a temp PW you can use to login.

Once you login you can change it here...

https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/profile.php?do=editpassword

Hopefully you see this!
 
Thank you sooo much Tom! :banana: I am back...I was so lost without ability to post yesterday... Sincerely! Hummm..maybe I need to get a life! :cheesy: Just kiddin... I love looking at charts and TSPTalk and TSPtalk poker on Sunday night! :D:D:D

PS. EvilAnne, Thank you for contacting Tom for me! Your Awesome too! :D:D:D. What would I do without my poker buddy ....and our other poker buddies too ! :smile: BTW, if anyone would like to join the poker club, contact tsptalk via Private Message. Playing is Free! Games are on Sunday at 7:30 pm CT. Barracuda will be nice to you for at least 10 minutes... But I can't promise about the other sharks!
 
Good morning, here are charts as of a few minutes ago. I am liking C and I funds, but still thinking about entry. Humm..it does look like C fund wants to pull back a little and I fund seems high. Would really prefer to enter after it drops some...just not sure when that will happen... Ugghhh...patience. I tend to think the money to be made will occur before we get closer to Fed meeting the last week of January, when fear turns up. So, I want to get in sooner rather than later. S fund looks like it wants to move further down...3 EMA now looks to be crossing below 10 EMA and Stochastic has dropped below the 80 line.

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DreamboatAnnie said:
Charts update
View attachment 52596

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Click to expand...

I believe I’m detecting a shift into international stocks and probably a sustained duration as US stocks are overvalued. Better opportunities overseas. This article caught my eye. Probably will ride I fund for the year. Expecting correction in US stocks this year. Where else would we put our money? C Fund…oh brother…pie in the sky. 🤣🤣🥴😵

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/is-investing-in-foreign-stocks-a-good-idea-11637941887
 
Was just now looking at charts and that was quite a drop this afternoon that accelerated around 2 PM ET.

I was listening to news and some of this seems likely due to Fed minutes released from last month's meeting, and by bond yield tightening.

The Fed minutes came out today and they are committing to increase pace of taper and looks like rate hike happens in March.

Also, it was reported on Charles Payne this afternoon, by Danielle Dimartino Booth, former Dallas Fed advisor and Ceo of Quill Intelligence, that there is going to be a drop in liquidity from the ending of stimulus, and that realization is starting to show in tightening of 2-year and 10-year Treasury bond interest yield curves. There is a flattening of the yield curve during the past 24 hours that is causing concern of coming recession.

I need to look at those charts...


Ok...found this Good article on yields - 2-year Treasury yield jumps to highest level in almost two years as Fed officials eye a more aggressive start to rate hikes

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasury-yields-edge-lower-ahead-of-minutes-from-federal-reserve-meeting-11641385221

P.S. Yep... Also looks like IF good job numbers are reported on Friday, that may lead to another round of good news being bad for market as good job numbers would mean more people employed, increasing wages/stronger economy and thus more inflation thus bolstering the case for need if higher interest rates....
 
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DreamboatAnnie said:
Hummm... Article seemed mixed... Indicates there is a high correlation between international and US stocks during bear markets and crashes. Charts indicate I fund is doing best right now, but typically I fund is strong in December and at times in January.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-investing-in-foreign-stocks-a-good-idea-11637941887
Click to expand...

I've been trying to find the best contrarian stocks to S&P - that is, what is best to be in defensively during a downtrend in S&P and DOW? - both in and out of the TSP.

For the Forum here, i guess this raises the question which is better G or F when C,S, and I are falling in a bear market?
 
The F-Fund used to run contrary to stocks, though I haven't seen that consistently for some time. When out of stocks, I usually go to G.
 
MMK, G fund is clearly the safest place within TSP. I equate it to being in cash/on the sidelines.

During major crash, like 2008/2009 (which actually started October 2007 for equities), C Fund dropped about 57.69%. The S fund dropped 59% while I Fund dropped 61%. F funds /bonds dropped around 14.63%. So, next to G fund the F fund was safest during major Stock market/equities drop.

They each recovered to get back to level before start of drops, but recovery periods varied.

C Fund -recovered by April 2013 = 4 years, 1 month (drop started Oct 2007)
S Fund -recovered by January 2011 = 1 year, 10 months (drop started Oct 2007)
I Fund - recovered by June 2014 = 5 years, 1 month although it got close to recovery by May 2013 but then dropped again a bit (Drop started Oct 2007)
F Fund - recovered by December 2008... It had been climbing until Sept/Oct 2008 dropped for a few months while equities were taking major portion of the drop and recovered quickly


Lesson: Buy and Hold can be costly, and that strategy can take a long time to recover losses. While some drops occurred quickly in days and weeks, the overall downtrend lasted 1.5 years. Also, some folks jumped out at bottom and did not get back in for the long recovery. :( For this reason, I do believe in setting a dollar or percentage loss (stop loss) to try to not ride down a major drop. Every person should set that limit. I am fairly conservative as I get close to retirement, but I do plan to continue investing after retirement... Goal: To live off the yearly earnings and leave principal untouched, Crossing my fingers! I clearly need to get better at investing.


PS ..Agree with you Whipsaw. So, unless F fund is starting to enter an uptrend, I just go to G fund.
 
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Well that us just awful... I was able to see them when loaded...hummm...

:( I will update and reload again. I have noticed this happens sometimes, though when uploaded I am able to see them on thread. I will sign out after loading and come back in to confirm they show....
 
But before I do that I must load this video....just because. Uplifting song by a great band.
I'm young, wild and free and have the power of music in me! :D. Oh gosh...check out the clothes and hair styles...lol...

Triumph... Magic Power

Saw them in 1978! which means I am officially older than the hills...but I was very Young, Wild and Free...still am in many ways!!!:rolleyes:
Aweee..,cut off part that says this ticket was $7.00

Triumph concert ticket reduced size.jpg
 
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