DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

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Sticky pants deployed, but not sure how much longer. Fed talks tomorrow. Still look to be in downtrend...I am not following my strategy...bad me! :(
Looking better now than it did this morning. Bollingers contracting. Stochastic still slightly pointed up. But 10 and 13 EMAs both below 20 SMA (mid-point of Bollinger bands).

Dwcpf.png
 
Isn't that another of Ira's guidelines? Blowing through the top bollinger band will result in a return to the 18 day MA?
 
Whipsaw said:
Isn't that another of Ira's guidelines? Blowing through the top bollinger band will result in a return to the 18 day MA?
Click to expand...
Yes, but not as long as it is embedded. Once it loses embedded reading, it has one day to regain it or else price should drop to 18 MA (neutral area) at which time it all resets and you look for next direction. In this case, it blew through the 18 and 20 day downward. So, now short downtrend with various possible support points below..lower Bollinger, or even 50 or 100 day MA before it returns to 18 dMA.

Also, it does not always immediately drop back to 18 dMA. Example 11/2 to 12/24... uptrend with price touching upper band 11/9, pulls away a little and closely follows the band a long time before dropping. It Did go back to 18-20MA after 12/24. He likes to pocket some gains when price touches the upper band. Its like resetting a stop. He uses window envelopes for profit taking, setting stops, etc.
 
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Another day of bloodletting..:( Still trying to redeploy gorilla glue, but not sure how much more I can take. Price has dropped below my initial entry 2/1 (50%S) and 2/26 (50%S). It's now rbroken the lower Bollinger and and 50 EMA. Wondering how much longer it will continue down.

There is a noontime talk by Fed today to see what he says about stimulus and interest rates. I really want to wait for a bounce up, but not sure I can wait. I am at small loss right now, overall. :17:
Best wishes to you All* !!!! PS.. and just looked and it is at -1.85%, so its moving down more....Stochastic is down to 20, which is usually a buy indicator. for me ..IF. IF. IF. you can tell it has reached bottom. But, nothing I see yet indicating its there...so its tough to decide whether to stay in or exit and wait for later entry once bottom is clear. ugghhh... :puke:
I may pull the trigger...and just take it, knowing that I broke my own rule to stay in for more than day or two on risky buy in, and now paying for it. Will see... trying to stay positive... economy is doing good. Hear ISM manufacturing new orders up and that is good! This down leg looks like September, but to counter that we have been on one heck of a rocket since October. So its due for a drop....but how much????

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Better... closer to 50 EMA..:o. trying to wait for bounce....pretty hard!
Latest now down .83%. -it is improving..now barely above 50 EMA and candle looks more promising for tomorrow....I will stay in one more day...
Dwcpf.png

Earlier at height of today's drop.
View attachment 48571
 
Here is latest.. So Powell said inflation likely to pick up as economy reopens. Of course. Market unhappy! This is getting very ugly!

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You know Whipsaw...it could partly be a knee jerk reaction to what Powell said but interest rates on 10-year Treasury is ruling the day! It increased today....hold. on ...wait for it...up.to 1.55% from 1.47.. up by 5.44%...gosh. I remember rates getting much higher decades ago. If that happened now, the sky would just freakin fall.... pretty sure about it!!! This is ridiculous.

I am now hoping for a little bounce to exit. We have been on quite a tear up for months! Maybe it could go up tomorrow and into next week, but thinking maybe it continues down for a week or two. Noticing Stochastic is still slightly above 20...at 21.81 so me thinks it has more room to drop? :worried:...ugghh...maybe a little up and then a few more diwn? I dunno. Thing is I can't ride it down any further. Capital Preservation. I will use one IFT to exit TOMORROW regardless of what happens, and another IFT left to reenter later this month. IF its a double bottom, oh well....I will just say lesson learned. But, if I were not in market this would still not be at a buy. My insanity was to stay in after 13 EMA dropped below 20 SMA and to buy in last Friday and not exit on Monday with that beautiful pop up.

So here is today's lovely "Fugly" chart! ..:blink:
Bottom green line shows my 50% entry on Feb 1 and top green line showing my 50% entry on last day in Feb. If it would get anywhere between those two points intraday, I would be happy to exit. Of course above those two would make leap for joy! Actually getting out will likely have same effect! Wish my sister was here visiting with a big bottle of Patron!
Futures slightly down right now. Best wishes to you All*!!!!!

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I might need to hit both! :laugh:

So, IFT submitted going to full exit. Will take whatever happens and regroup. Of course as soon as I exit, I expect a large bounce because I'm good at exiting on a bottom... which is good news for you all.

Wish the bounce would happen today, but doubtful given its current drop since earlier this morning. Now at -1.53 or so.. I really do not like the down Slope of mid-point on Bollinger band and price sliding down lower band. Eventually it will pull away and bounce up. For now, I am giving it a rest and will work to slap myself a little more for being so undisciplined and not following my strategy, which I think is sound.

If I see a bottom next week, I will reenter. Best wishes to you all!

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Definitely agree RangerRay! I have gone into negative territory for the year (as of yesterday), so I must take action to preserve capital. It is very hard to dig out of a big deficit. Afew percent down is manageable for me. So here goes! Wishing you and everyone a beautiful day and weekend! :smile:
 
I'm only in 26%. Last year I let it ride and it came back pretty quickly. If I get out I for sure will miss the turnaround.. Guess I'll just hold my nose and try to forget what's happening.
 
Ok. Not sure but does this look like big head and shoulders forming?
So maybe price pops up to 2010 and then continues down.... just a guess...
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DB, alot of others on TSPTalk are also saying big head and shoulders forming. I didn't get out soon enough for the day; so waiting to see what Monday looks like. From november to December I was up 6%. up another 6 from Jan to my last IFT. from that point to now; i've not only lost all gains, i'm 6% below. I too didn't follow my own rules. This market has had a lot of people investing by the seat of their pants 'cause its not making any sense. I'm hoping it is a a big head and shoulders; the move up to the next shoulder would sure help cut my losses - but, maybe smarter to get out before it drops more... who knows these days. Best of luck to all!
 
mmk119 said:
DB, alot of others on TSPTalk are also saying big head and shoulders forming. I didn't get out soon enough for the day; so waiting to see what Monday looks like. From november to December I was up 6%. up another 6 from Jan to my last IFT. from that point to now; i've not only lost all gains, i'm 6% below. I too didn't follow my own rules. This market has had a lot of people investing by the seat of their pants 'cause its not making any sense. I'm hoping it is a a big head and shoulders; the move up to the next shoulder would sure help cut my losses - but, maybe smarter to get out before it drops more... who knows these days. Best of luck to all!
Click to expand...

MMK, It could very well pop some next week. If it is H&S I would not expect to get even with January high...a bit lower, before another drop. But will see... no telling. Romulus on GrokTrade thinks markets higher in 4 months ...I agree! But he also mentions increased volatility this year. I will just watch for reentry. I feel very thankful for the unexpected pop this afternoon. Best wishes to you! :smile:
 
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