DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

[PessOptimist]

Elliott_Trader: Paraphrase of Ira Epstein's Rules for Trading.


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Thank you for the link. Now I know I didn't know.

PO

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I didn't see this coming... though you have been reducing exposure. Does the afternoon rally change your view? My plan is to hold in S through the first and then rebalance. It seems we keep climbing the wall of worry - my concern being a double top type of outcome... no indication as yet.

Hi Whipsaw, I exited because:
S fund -before cutoff, did not look like it would re-embed..but it did in afternoon:blink:. ...ugghhh

C Fund...was embedded and has stayed embedded...only had 10% in there and formation of candle looked indecisive before cut off so decided to just exit, but I think I am just tired of looking at market...need a rest ...4 days until IFTs replenish.....uggh

But, the original exit strategy is to exit when 13 EMA drops below 20 SMA (mid-point) of Bollinger bands. Its STILL going. I have now entered and exited twice since this run started....double ugghhh... :sucks: eeeeeeeee.......gosh, eventually, I need to get in when 13 first crosses above 20 and bite my fingers until a cross down actually happens! :shhh: don't tell anyone, but I don't think DBA can do it...

I think this longer-term Strategy is good, but DBA is very very bad!

Best Wishes to you and Everyone! :smile:
PS. I am happy with my balance!

 

[PessOptimist]

Hi Whipsaw, I exited because:
S fund -before cutoff, did not look like it would re-embed..but it did in afternoon

. ...ugghhh

C Fund...was embedded and has stayed embedded...only had 10% in there and formation of candle looked indecisive before cut off so decided to just exit, but I think I am just tired of looking at market...need a rest ...4 days until IFTs replenish.....uggh

But, the original exit strategy is to exit when 13 EMA drops below 20 SMA (mid-point) of Bollinger bands. Its STILL going. I have now entered and exited twice since this run started....double ugghhh...

eeeeeeeee.......gosh, eventually, I need to get in when 13 first crosses above 20 and bite my fingers until a cross down actually happens!

don't tell anyone, but I don't think DBA can do it...

I think this longer-term Strategy is good, but DBA is very very bad!

Best Wishes to you and Everyone!

PS. I am happy with my balance!

dBA, I feel your pain. I’m not saying I am following your strategy exactly but it motivated me to look in to some things and get my self out of total G fund at 6 basis points. (.625%) My paltry 20% in S gives me ups and downs of hundreds or sometimes thousand per day in the balance. G fund increase is really inconsequential. Starting to worry about past days of 5% drops like in March. Maybe time to get out too. Relax and earn .625% and be happy that I have earned enough as of today to cover all withdrawals though October for this year. I have a way to go to cover last years. Unless of course tomorrow is that 5-6% down day. Then I am screwed and you are not.

Best wishes.

PO

 

[Whipsaw]

DBA, it is challenging; the only issue i have with the long range plan is eating the 6-7% that it will take for the 13 EMA to cross the 20 SMA. Otherwise, its all good!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I think we are getting way too technical in to this. Please correct me if I am wrong but “imbedded” has to do with the K and D lines of the slow stochastic merging? Usually a red and blue line. Meaning D red and K blue? Imbedded is good but unembedding is bad? If D goes below K, time to leave maybe?

No one ever accused me of being the brightest knife in the drawer.

PO

Hi PO, Ira Epstein uses term "embedded" to mean when price is such that BOTH the K and D lines of the Slow Stochastics are above 80 (upwards) or below 20 (downwards) for 3 straight days. It does not matter whether the K line is crossed below the D or vice versa.

Embedded just means that a strong trend has been established in the direction market is going. Nothing says it will continue in that direction, but I have seen that when it drops below 80 (the K line--faster line), it does tend to continue down ..at least for a time, BUT in his videos, I have heard him state that if it drops out of that "embedded" (i.e. over 80 state), the chances of it re-embedding (i.e. going back up) is very low IF it does not re-embed the very next day after it dropped out of the embedded state

Best wishes to you!!! DBA:smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Elliott_Trader: Paraphrase of Ira Epstein's Rules for Trading.


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Thank you Tom4Jean! :smile: Just to add some more info. I looked at Elliott Trader link and it does a good job of explaining strategy, but there is a lot more that was not mentioned. Also, as informative as Ira Epstein's daily end of day financial videos are, his early morning subscriber videos (different from "morning flash") are packed with concise information, and his trading methodology includes much more than what he talks about in his videos as well.


I recently took his charting course and learned quite a bit. Aside from what was mentioned in that ET link, Mr. Epstein many other tools including 3 period MAs set at either high of day, or low of day depending on whether above or below the 18 MA. He also teaches how he uses those plus the 45MA, 100MA and Window Envelops and Bollinger bands. At times they are used for profit taking. The charting course does provide strategy/rules on when to enter a buy and some profit taking rules. But his settings for the Window Envelops are proprietary and are changed fairly often based on what is happening in the market. He posts them as "chart numbers" on his website available through subscription along with specific trading recommendations (specific entry/exit) that he provides to his subscribers each day for numerous ETFs and commodities, currencies, etc.

He also uses "Swing Lines" to define trends and as part of his trading strategy. These "Swing Lines" are something he developed rules for drawing, that are similar to identifying trends (via higher high, higher low, etc). You will not find them on any charting software like Stock Charts. He offers a subscription to Ira-Linn charts which will draw those swing lines as part of the indicators available on their charting software. In the charting course, he teaches the rules for drawing the lines, but while you can learn to draw them the charting software would be so much easier. I do think his course is worth taking.

He presently offers free morning flash videos that are very helpful. He talks about economic news, FOMC, information about the US market and international markets. The information is very good to know but important to note that this is just a tidbit of what he offers in his subscribers morning videos that come out before the market opens. As part of that charting course, he provides 30 days of free access to the trading recommendations, subscribers morning videos with extended commentary, and access to use their charting software.

Based on listening to some of his latest videos, it seems he is looking for more business and may stop the free videos all together. :dunno: I hope not! :17:

Best Wishes to you and Everyone* !!!!!! :smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

DBA, it is challenging; the only issue i have with the long range plan is eating the 6-7% that it will take for the 13 EMA to cross the 20 SMA. Otherwise, its all good!

Hi Whipsaw!!! Yes, I couldn't agree more.... oh gosh...if you don't get in right at the bottom, it is very hard to exit using 13/20 cross over. I used to try using 3/5 cross over but it was too tight. I dunno... so I have kinda been using the "get out little by little" method to lessen the blow...still hunting for better exit methodology or at least something that I can be more confident about... that is some of the reason I start to drift out of trades. It's just safer. uggh :blink:

Also, just to be clear, I am not using a single indicator to decide to exit... I use several. I do believe it would be a mistake to only base an exit on one indicator. I kinda like to get a few indicators that start to show market weakness. One thing is looking at candle patterns, areas of support and look at the following plus look for divergence in MACD, TSI, Stochastic, VIX and Advance/Decline.

Oh ... wanted to mention, I have been really liking Romulus on Grok Trade. He is holding free 30 minute webinars each Thursday at 7:30pm CT. He was a ETF hedge fund manager for .. I think he said 25 years. I really really like him. He had a 2-hour market course/discussion Saturday ($20) and talked about tools he uses, how he selects ETFs to trade. The free 30 minute webinars are worth attending. I asked him if he listens to the news at all to make trade decisions and he said No.

Best wishes to you!!!

 

[Whipsaw]

Thanks, DBA! Right now, holding has been working out for me. I do like your new charts, lots of insights there. I'm investing in a Vanguard account; just scratching the surface on various investments and trades. I need to check out those webinars...

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

So Whipsaw, check out these charts. There is the hard exit with 13/20 crossover that we previously talked about. That's reason I'm looking for better exit strategy. Gosh, even on these charts a bit ago, the 13EMA still hasn't crossed below 20 SMA but suspect it will....will see how day closes. but if one had entered back in early July when it first crossed up, one would still be in positive territory...so looks good for entry but not exit. I got out a bit early (last week, 8/25 before nice increases).

The grok trade guy Romulus had pointed out some divergences on Tuesday 9/1. Last night he pointed the one from last Friday and few more divergences that were indicating a major turning point. I had only seen the one in vix. I guess I need to be more watchful.

I will be waiting for entry next week...I probably should buy some now....but Stochastics have not yet reached 20 (if you can believe that!).... plus fear of catching falling knife.:worried:

Best wishes to you and everyone* !!!! :smile:

 

[Whipsaw]

Yes, I missed the exit, that's fine. Looks to be recovering. If its down before the holiday, will a post holiday reversal be up? Watching for that cross, if we're down next week I guess I'll punch out.

 

[ToddB]

DBA I have the 13/20 crossing now.
I’m stuck 100 C but I will wait for more data next week, don’t wanna take the loss!


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[ToddB]

Yes it looks like we have dip buyers!!!
Let’s hope this isn’t just a.......

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[DreamboatAnnie]

Here is closing 15 minute 5-day chart, C Fund. Buyers stepped in before our cutoff, drove it up but then dropped off a bit in last hour....good recovery overall! Humm....

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

BUT, check it out. Surprisingly, the 13 EMA still did not cross below the 20 SMA....so, with all that turmoil and heavily applied gorilla glue to sticky pants, no exit signal! Wow! It's darn close... and anyone in since July 6 would still be in positive territory on this trade.

And MACD crossed down, and Stochastic momentum on the way down...But it has not yet gotten to 20 on Stochastic or to 15 on RSI (2), so its not quite at clear "buy" yet for me... BUT, BUT...that could be because it's been such a hot market, it could easily reverse and go back up on Tuesday. If it does, I'll cry if I don't buy in at least a little.... That long tail says many dip buyers stepped in..... Will see how it goes Tuesday...probably should not have exited last week...eeeeeeee.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Yes, did consider entry but would like to see more upside....is it dead cat bounce? Sure is nice. Would have been great to enter yesterday and exit today. The RSI, 2 setting did hit below 15. MACD still crossed below its signal line, and will likely not cross up until more upside...also price still hugging lower Bollinger band and 13 EMA below 20SNA... lol...but still debated partial entry...ugghhh..
Best wishes to you all !!! :smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Went to bank a bit ago, made deposit and this song came on the Ozzy channel.. of course had to blast it! . Such a bad ass song...hypnotic beat...great vocals...love it! They toured USA in 2019..billed as good bye tour but you can still catch them in Germany or Sweden next year! Nice video of them hanging out and recording...so I think I'll listen to it again while I look at charts...hummmm.

Great lyrics too... a thousand warriors I have known...

Perfect Strangers"

Can you remember remember my name
As I flow through your life
A thousand oceans I have flown
And cold spirits of ice
All my life
I am the echo of your past

I am returning the echo of a point in time
Distant faces shine
A thousand warriors I have known
And laughing as the spirits appear
All your life
Shadows of another day

And if you hear me talking on the wind
You've got to understand
We must remain
Perfect Strangers

I know I must remain inside this silent
well of sorrow

A strand of silver hanging through the sky
Touching more than you see
The voice of ages in your mind
Is aching with the dead of the night
Precious life (your tears are lost in falling rain)

And if you hear me talking on the wind
You've got to understand
We must remain
Perfect Strangers

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Gosh..as much as I want to enter, I just can't.... gotta wait. Action as of right now is indicating indecision. but also 13 EMA is below 20SMA (midpoint of Bollinger bands) and Stochastics and MACD not yet reverting back upward and price is still below mid-point of Bollingers. I think we are going to move upward in the near term...think economy will continue to improve and as more States open but... but I need to see it in charts, so I am sitting on hands even though I really want to jump in at least some. Also, Vix is still trending down (which means good things for equities). okay... so Waiting another day.... uggh. What I really want is for it to drop just a bit more to then jump in... I know... getting greedy and I may just end up losing out altogether...


Best Wishes to you all* !!!

 

[nnuut]

Yep, I'm not ready to JUMP!NO!:nono:

 

[flalaw97]

NAAIM went from 95 to 53. Looks like the pros are exiting...

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Ahhhh... very interesting FlaLaw97 !!!
Here is the link.... eeeeee....big drop.
https://www.naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/

The afternoon was telling... S and C fund turned from indecision at mid-day to big engulfing red candles at day's end, though price did not close below Tuesday's low. S Fund supported by lower Bollinger band while C fund supported by 50 EMA. Right now, futures are up 66 points on Dow mini...so doesn't mean much as I do believe that was the same yesterday, but will see... definitely not buying tomorrow...Best Wishes to you All* !!!!!