DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

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Good morning! Still out... but wishing I could find the door to get in... :cheesy: I think Twitter reports today, Facebook on Wednesday and Amazon on Thursday. Would like to be in for at least Amazon. But it is hard to pull the trigger when I see momentum going down on Stochastics.... so I am waiting .... uggh… still...…:(

At the start of week, it was reported that only 16% of earnings had been reported...so more to go.

On the positive side, Jamie Dimon, CEO, JPMorgan, stated (on Wall Street week) that he does not see a recession in the next 2-3 years. So that is good for the longer term and for buy and holders.

But what about now????? Twiddling my thumbs...watching from the sidelines... as patiently as I can. But I guess if I don't watch out I could be saying that in December!!! :rolleyes:

Best wishes to you all on your Investments!!!!!!!! :smile:

P.S. Mcqlives...that Snoopy is so very cheerful...gives me a big smile. I wish I could package that, sell it and put some in my coffee every morning!!! lol :laugh:
 
And here I am in the markets but thinking of getting out on Thursday. I hate starting a month out of the market but, unless we see a change, especially in regards to Stochastics, I am becoming more concerned with capital preservation than major profit making. I won't go into all the market analysts I try to at least skim on a daily/weekly basis (kudos to Nnutt for posting so many) but my view is that most of them are not showing confidence in forecasting either direction. My take out of their statements is that the S&P is in this narrowing range until we break down below 2860 or break out above 2920. Next stop down after that is 2785 while next stop up is ??? with 3070 as a possible. Sounds ominous, or great, but when you crunch the numbers it is only about 5% either way.

When smarter minds than I can't forecast a direction than I start to get nervous and when only 5 percent is at stake the risk/reward becomes much more conservative.
 
Gosh.. believe it or not... I am debating a short buy in today. Stochastics did a turnaround... t least intraday. What to do???? I need another cup of coffee. I am leaning to enter… I think Google reports tomorrow too. Thinking about 25S, 25C, 20 F, 30G????? thumbs still twiddling.... lol
But... I do get your point McQlives…. market so high... meandering sideways... waiting for direction and its a throw of the dice... which way will it go?
 
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I dunno...how will Facebook & Google do? I'm not too happy with those companies... I pretty much stopped using Google and now using Duck Duck Go. Will lots of others follow suit? Will their profits be great? hum.... maybe wait until tomorrow and count more on Anazon, but who knows ...my thinking maybe poooey…. plus when are more financial power houses reporting? eeeekkkkk….I should just enter.... too much thinking. yep... brain turning to pooooey! lol....:rolleyes:
 
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Entering - 50S, 30C, 10F, and 10 G=Lilly Pad! So 80% in equities. Short play... crossed my self and said a prayer and Hail Mary!

Best Wishes to you all!!!!!!!! :smile:
 
Reducing exposture…. 35S, 15C, 10 f, 40g ??? will see...
Revised... Yes did exit some... 30S, 10C, 10 F and 50 G. Just looks to be topping a bit. Will see... .in any case, I do want to be invested going into May.
Best wishes to you all!!!!:)
 
I am exiting equities... so this is your que Whipsaw. The bottom maybe in as I typically exit at a bottom and enter at a top....:sick:

F50/G50 !!! :smile:

best wishes to everyone! :smile:
 
oh...just now hearing that China came back and putting cold water on Sarah's comments. Cavuto reports that Chinese Commerce ministry is threatening retaliation if the tariffs are imposed on Friday.
 
Whipsaw, Best wishes my friend! I definitely do not have Grande Cojones! Now that I am out the market should skyrocket! Remember, continue using the DOODA system (do opposite of DreamboatAnnie).. ugghhhhh. You should be good! Some folks on FBN are now saying they think no deal Friday, but no tariff either....hummmm….is Trump gonna blink??
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Whipsaw, Best wishes my friend! I definitely do not have Grande Cojones! Now that I am out the market should skyrocket! Remember, continue using the DOODA system (do opposite of DreamboatAnnie).. ugghhhhh. You should be good! Some folks on FBN are now saying they think no deal Friday, but no tariff either....hummmm….is Trump gonna blink??
Click to expand...
Hi DBA. I think if we have a no deal on Friday that Trump will enforce the new tariffs (at least short term) because they put the new tariffs in place already to begin on Friday if no agreement is reached. If that takes place I think rates will fall and bonds will rise, so you should be positioned well. Best of luck!
 
I think rspring is right and the market knows it. But in Trump's defense, the US Trade Rep negotiated a good deal. One of the key agreements was that China would implement these Trade Agreement changes in law. They've backed off saying they would do it administratively. That's the old China looking to escape accountability. Trump is correct to act on the tariffs on Friday. But it's going to sting a lot of people.

FS
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Whipsaw, Best wishes my friend! I definitely do not have Grande Cojones! Now that I am out the market should skyrocket! Remember, continue using the DOODA system (do opposite of DreamboatAnnie).. ugghhhhh. You should be good! Some folks on FBN are now saying they think no deal Friday, but no tariff either....hummmm….is Trump gonna blink??
Click to expand...

Thanks DBA, certainly hedging my bet... futures are heading south as I type! =:-o
 
Rspring, Fogsailing and DBA,

Now I'm thinking of getting back in...but only because Trump views deal making as a game/form of art. I just don't know if I feel strongly enough about this to act on it. Anyway, here is my thoughts about what has happened/may happen...

China and US have a spoken deal to move forward; China tries doing an 11th hour slick move (like DBA referenced); Trump et al catches slick move and calls it for the BS it is; China bluffs on stopping the talks and Trump calls their bluff and says fine, tariffs taking effect Friday; now China says deal still possible and will continue talks today.
Now we get to the may happen part...and keep in mind these negotiations have been occurring for many months. No particular order...
1) China blinks and requests the tariffs be delayed while negotiations continue ( = Market up).
2) Trump blinks and requests the tariffs be delayed while negotiations continue ( = Market up).
3) Deal is reached ( = markets up huge).
4) Everyone stands pat and tariffs take effect ( = markets down, possibly big time).

So is this an "Art of the Deal" moment? I'm trying, and failing, to see what election considerations may be taken into account. Any ideas anyone? Trying to think like trump hurts my head!
 
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Mcglives, I like your logic and reasoning. Based on outcomes presented, potential 75% chance of market recovery. I don't think Trump wants to see the Mr. Market in the dumps, as he touts market highs quite often, and the benefit to folks 401Ks. Whether to deploy my other 50% now...?
 
I think China may be doubling down. I don’t think trump will go to 10% tariffs like they want. Falling knife scenario. No move for me.
 
Mcqlives said:
Rspring, Fogsailing and DBA,

Now I'm thinking of getting back in...but only because Trump views deal making as a game/form of art. I just don't know if I feel strongly enough about this to act on it. Anyway, here is my thoughts about what has happened/may happen...

China and US have a spoken deal to move forward; China tries doing an 11th hour slick move (like DBA referenced); Trump et al catches slick move and calls it for the BS it is; China bluffs on stopping the talks and Trump calls their bluff and says fine, tariffs taking effect Friday; now China says deal still possible and will continue talks today.
Now we get to the may happen part...and keep in mind these negotiations have been occurring for many months. No particular order...
1) China blinks and requests the tariffs be delayed while negotiations continue ( = Market up).
2) Trump blinks and requests the tariffs be delayed while negotiations continue ( = Market up).
3) Deal is reached ( = markets up huge).
4) Everyone stands pat and tariffs take effect ( = markets down, possibly big time).

So is this an "Art of the Deal" moment? I'm trying, and failing, to see what election considerations may be taken into account. Any ideas anyone? Trying to think like trump hurts my head!
Click to expand...

I agree with you on the possible directions laid out. I seriously doubt Trump will play politics here so I do believe tariffs are a real possibility. He will try to win the battle and bend and negotiate to extent possible but the trade agreement will need to be good for the USA. How good is the question. I doubt he will bend to allow an trade agreement that does not have some measure of enforcement in it.

Otherwise, why bother having an agreement at all. No agreement is better than a bad/non-enforceable trade agreement that continues to allow China to cheat! This would not be good for the USA. He is not going to let that continue. No automatic stamp of approval for his political benefit. Just my two cents. I hope the Chinese stop playing around---dirty AHs! :smile:

PS... and quite honestly they need to be put in their place. USA has been overly generous for decades and it has gotten us nothing but an imbalance in trade and we are enriching Communist China! Talk about dumb! Yes... let's keep putting OUR money into their pockets so they can eventually get us. yes, I realize the tariff will increase our prices for Chinese-made goods, but that is the whole point. Stop buying Chinese!! We need to support OUR team -- the good ole USA!
 
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