Dr Faustus's Account Talk

[userque]

Well, am getting conflicting signals on the S fund ... one of my charts says to buy, another says to wait and see. So I don't know. Ah, the joys of playing around with a system.

Anyway, that's the latest ...

Split the baby

 

[Cactus]

Well, am getting conflicting signals on the S fund ... one of my charts says to buy, another says to wait and see. So I don't know. Ah, the joys of playing around with a system.

Anyway, that's the latest ...

Is that because of the rollercoaster ride of the S Fund today or is your system longer term then that?

I like the split the baby idea: 50% S Fund 50% on hold.

 

[DrFaustus]

My God ... the freefall continues. Best place to be is probably the F fund but G ain't bad either. Wow.

 

[DrFaustus]

Several years ago, I got into an interesting discussion with another "TSP Talkster" ... I believe his name was Father Felse. He was from someplace in South Carolina down around Clemson.

Anyway, he had an interesting approach to tracking and fitting numbers to the TSP fund data. Rather than using each trading day as a point, he was using calendar days. Let me see if I
can explain. Earlier this week, we had a TSP holiday: Martin Luther King day. So his price chart ( for the S fund ) looked like this:



Whereas if you used a data point for each TRADING day, the chart looks like this:



Concentrate on the lower right of the charts. You'll see that using calendar days for your data points adds a calming influence on the charts - big swings taking place over the weekends or holidays are leveled out somewhat.
Which idea is correct? I dunno ... I think an argument can be made for both methods. But here's the salient point of this discussion ...

If you use the Calendar Days method, the S fund is signaling a BUY status, meaning it might be time to get back in. If you use the Trading Days method, the S-fund is signaling an ALERT ... meaning a change is possible.

Dan

 

[DrFaustus]

Well, in spite of all the see-sawing, the S fund is showing a slight trend upward. Not enough for my charts to signal a buy yet, but I see something there. Is this the floor? Could be ...

 

[anthony]

I'd be worried about small caps domestically and internationally this year. I like the S-Fund, especially in the early and middle stages of a bull. In the late stages (if that's our case now), the large caps dominate.

 

[DrFaustus]

Anthony .. that might be true. However, I'm only benchmarking my 'system' against the S fund at the moment, so ... while what the other funds are doing is interesting, it's a side topic for me. : )

 

[DrFaustus]

My S-fund charts are signaling a buy ... so I guess it's a buy-in day for me. 100% S COB today

Disclaimer: Although I used to be a govt employee, I no longer have any accounts with the TSP ... so I'm not putting any of my money at risk with these trading suggestions. I'm merely testing my trading system. Although I hope to go public with it at some point, for now .. this is merely a live test under real market conditions. I'm in the AutoTracker so my gains / losses are known and verifiable to anyone who wishes to see them. Do your own analysis, do your own thinking and invest accordingly. Thanks.

 

[DrFaustus]

Well, that was interesting. Lesson learned .. do not, under any circumstances, let your funds go for even a day without watching them when the market volatility is high!

100% F COB

 

[DrFaustus]

The S-fund has been giving me an "ALERT" signal for the past 3 trading sessions. It's not signaling a buy yet, but ...
Well, caveat emptor.

Oh for the day's of Daily Valuation. Thank you, TSP Board, you've been very helpful.

 

[DrFaustus]

The S-fund is finally(!) giving me a buy signal today. tally ho! 100% S by COB

 

[DrFaustus]

typical .. the day I get in, the market tanks :: sigh ::

 

[Whipsaw]

typical .. the day I get in, the market tanks :: sigh ::

It looked good until the noon whammy struck :-/

 

[Cactus]

Yeah, I hate those late day sell-offs. This is not looking good.

 

[nnuut]

typical .. the day I get in, the market tanks :: sigh ::

Likewise, think Turn Around Tuesday!

 

[airlift]

Likewise, think Turn Around Tuesday!

Nnuut, I hope you are right that this is turnaround Tuesday. It appears to be so, because stocks are rising in direct relation to the price of oil this morning where WTI is close to 34.44 now. How long might this last?..... Good luck to all!

 

[DrFaustus]

The system is giving a sell indicator on the S fund today. This is probably due to the huge loss we experienced yesterday. But today appears to be flirting with the upside, so I dunno. But ... a system is a system so I'll go 100% G cob today

 

[DrFaustus]

Oh man ... I just took a look at the standings and I can't believe it! As bad as I'm doing this year, I'm still beating the PANTS off of Intrepid! Watch out you don't choke on my dust, buddy! : D

 

[DrFaustus]

I was wondering why my method wasn't performing better ... got to looking at my spreadsheets and discovered a referencing error! :: sigh :: Still got my sights on you, Intrepid! : )

 

[DrFaustus]

For what it's worth .. the system is now ( as a result of the debug ) reporting that we should be buying into the S fund. I'm in a quandary as to whether I should do this on the Tracker or not.