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Dr Faustus's Account Talk
- Thread starter DrFaustus
- Start date
ILoveTDs
Member
Exactly, I run a line across the tops/spikes of the actual prices. If the short term (I use 20 day SMA) is above long term (I use 80 day SMA), and the actual exceeds the "line across the tops of actual prices" I lock in the gains and sit out for a dip.
You miss out the chance of gains continuing, but I operate under "pigs get slautered". If we could put in a stop loss for TSP I WOULDN'T use this I would just put in a stop loss at the top of the actual once we crossed it and hope for more gains. Just another fault with TSP.
You could use any timeframe you want, but I personnally use the previous month, so I draw a line across the spikes for September and project that slop out over October. Once the COB crosses this line I lock in gains the next day COB.
Fill free to ask any questions.
I see. I use to operate off of the "dead cat bounce" philosophy. I'd wait until the market was tanking and then get for a day or two to take advantage of the "dead-cat bounce." That strategy worked very well for me until the TSP changed the rules and discontinued allowing daily IFTs. ( Based upon a serious misconception, I think. ) So Im trying out another strategy. I use a much shorter DMA than you mention because I want to be more agile. Actually, I do DMAs of several periods and then run curve-fits through those so I can perform some actual math on them. I think Im on the right track but of course the proof is in the pudding. I hope to put in a good showing in the tracker next year.
Arrrrrgggggg ... I hate doing this. My models suggest you get out of the S fund. I guess Monday's gains were large enough to send me from an "OUT" status right through the "ALERT" status and straight on into "IN." Ruleset has been changed. Sorry for any misdirection here.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
If only we had the proverbial "crystal ball" to know when black swans fly in, as in yesterday. :blink:
MrJohn ... one probably could have guessed that was going to happen but that would have been a subjective analysis, not an objective one.
I am investigating ways to add a confidence level to the projection, which might allow you get out a day sooner if required. For example, I posted today that you should get out of the S fund. Which means that, in addition to feeling yesterday's pain, you're feeling today's pain as well. Just the way the TSP works. But (and I'm not saying I'm able to do this yet) I might have a way to say that ... yes, today is a good day to be in, but if the market goes down by 2% today, you should get out. Of course, you'd have to guess what is going to happen in the last 4 hours of the trading day, but I can't help much with that.
I am investigating ways to add a confidence level to the projection, which might allow you get out a day sooner if required. For example, I posted today that you should get out of the S fund. Which means that, in addition to feeling yesterday's pain, you're feeling today's pain as well. Just the way the TSP works. But (and I'm not saying I'm able to do this yet) I might have a way to say that ... yes, today is a good day to be in, but if the market goes down by 2% today, you should get out. Of course, you'd have to guess what is going to happen in the last 4 hours of the trading day, but I can't help much with that.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Like you, I too am working on multiple scenarios to tip the odds in my favor. The prevailing winds are, without a doubt, biased to the downside right now.
My plan is to complete my initial analysis of all my models by the end of this year (true analysis never ends), and STICK TO THAT MODEL until it can be proven that a change can enhance results.
I wish you much success in your endeavors.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Thanks for the heads up, Tom.
Mcqlives
Active member
Be careful...that's premeditation!:cheesy:
Would you prefer an underscore (Dr_Faustus)? It will give you more space.
Would you prefer an underscore (Dr_Faustus)? It will give you more space.
Naw, that's fine Tom. I was just commenting to be commenting. I hate this new cube arrangement we have at work though. Im a plus-sized guy, I feel like I've been shoe-horned into here at times. Plus, there's the loss of my personal library which i have to keep at home now. Being able to access stuff on the net is fine but there's just something about the feeling of a real live book.
