Dow up, leaders lag

09/12/13

It was an interesting day for stocks yesterday as we saw a mostly flat to down open, but buyers took over and the Dow gained another 136-points by the close - the 3rd triple digit gain in a row. The interesting part was that none of the leading indices were up.

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[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 159"]
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[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0070%[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.21%[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.32%[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.14%[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.59%[/TD]
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If you read the headlines about why the market was up yesterday they'd say stocks were up, "amid growing optimism that the Syria crisis would be resolved peacefully and a military strike would be avoided." The problem I have with that is the market started its pullback in the first week of August, and the Syrian red line threats did not happen until August 21st, when stocks had already pulled back sharply. perhaps the market is reacting to next week's Fed meeting already... you know, buy the rumor, sell the news?

The Dow, which has been lagging, caught up to the other indices by being the last to fill its open gap yesterday.

091213a.gif

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The S&P 500 (SPY) was up a modest 0.3%. This chart looks OK except for the open gap which will likely be filled soon, and after being up 7 days in a row, and 9 of the last 10 days, a little breather is probably in the cards.

091213b.gif

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The other major indices didn't fare as well. The Nasdaq actually lost ground, although it did close well off the lows.

091213c.gif

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The culprit? Apple, which lost over 5%on the day, and that had an impact on tech stocks and some small caps.


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The dollar was down pretty sharply yesterday and still has a couple of open gaps below on the UUP to fill (red). On Monday one open gap was filled on the downside, and last week the closest overhead gap was filled (both blue). There's also a large open gap near 22.70 that will eventually get filled (green), but it seems reasonable to expect the ones below to be tested first.

091213f.gif

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The weakness in the dollar yesterday helped the I-fund to be the best performing fund at +.6%.

In today's TSP Talk Plus report we'll go over the charts of more market leaders, and look at a divergence in the short and intermediate term indicators. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley



Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
 
Yes, they announced it the other day. I was going to post this chart the other day but didn't think it was really something worthwhile to bring up. Clearly a negative bias, but I don't know if we can count on it...

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