Does The AutoTracker Reflect Your Real TSP Account Moves?

[Cactus]

If the AT is correct, only 52 people have double digit gains so far this year. Last year I made 19.53%. This year I will lucky to break 5.0% - pathetic.

Last year was a lot easier to make money. Even I was double digit last year. This year it's my contrarian indicator that is double digit while I'm negative and pushing for the bottom of the AT.

 

[burrocrat]

Maybe you should look for a new wife? Naw, never mind it's not worth it.

that's what broke me the last time.

 

[OBXTrader]

Big moves made by members yesterday and today. Still trying to wrap my brain around the risk of going from 100% G Fund to 100% S Fund with real live retirement savings vs. TSPtalk dollars. If it's only 10% of your "real" portfolio maybe it's no big deal.

 

[BichonFreeze]

I just started last year and kept forgetting to put in my trades before deadlines because I was either on the road or busy with life events (holidays/buying a house/getting married). One of those trades made a big difference because I gained 2% in one day.

So the AT had me at -0.50%, but really I had a return a bit more than 2%. Nothing to boast, but glad it wasn't in the red.

 

[OBXTrader]

I was locked out of a trade until January 2nd and if I dumped my 6.26% TSP gain from 2014 into the S Fund, that would give me a frowny face today. As a conservative investor, I am more about risk management than picking exact days to enter and exit (market timing). As I posted elsewhere, I would have been up about 12% for 2014 if I had gone aggressive instead of L Funds, so satisfied with days/in out of market.

I just started last year and kept forgetting to put in my trades before deadlines because I was either on the road or busy with life events (holidays/buying a house/getting married). One of those trades made a big difference because I gained 2% in one day.

So the AT had me at -0.50%, but really I had a return a bit more than 2%. Nothing to boast, but glad it wasn't in the red.

 

[Maricar19]

No, autotracker does not reflect my real TSP account.

 

[Maricar19]

No, autotracker does not reflect my real TSP account.

The statement above refers to 2014.
As of 2/20/2015, I have diligently updated my IFTs in auto tracker.
I realize updating AT is much easier in tracking my IFTs and loss/gains than do my convoluted math.

 

[wwwtractor]

My autotracker generally matches my real money but I recently pulled all my money out of TSP and I match contributions and invested always.

 

[nasa1974]

The AutoTracker is nothing more than a tool or a reference that you can use to compare with other members. Does the AutoTracker have to reflect your real TSP moves? NO! But then you are doing yourself and those using the AutoTracker a disservice. By using the AutoTracker correctly it is a good reference on how your real TSP account is doing percentage wise on a daily and monthly basis. You're not forced to use it, but why not take advantage of a great learning tool and why not use it correctly

Just my 2 cents.

 

[offroad]

If you forget to update your autotracker just once (did this a couple times) , you are off for the rest of the year. so autotracker is not correct for me. there is no correction for a data entry mistake. or do I have that wrong? If there was a correction possible, then it is worth it to maintain autotracker.

 

[nasa1974]

If you forget to update your autotracker just once (did this a couple times) , you are off for the rest of the year. so autotracker is not correct for me. there is no correction for a data entry mistake. or do I have that wrong? If there was a correction possible, then it is worth it to maintain autotracker.

That's a great question for Tom. If anyone can answer that question he can.

 

[Cactus]

As I understand it, the AT was started to keep people honest about their trades. Before the AT people would brag about their excellent IFT moves after the fact and others would question if they had really made those IFT decisions at the time. The AT was set up to make those IFT decisions real time and prove that you really are that good. As such the AT isn't so much a measure of your current TSP distribution but a measure of IFT timing. Tom already lets you make corrections to a trade an hour or so after the deadline. I don't think you can go back and make corrections for a bunch of past trades as that would defeat the original purpose for the AT.

 

[OBXTrader]

Bringing this back up. I see a lot people concerned about their ranking on the Auto-tracker. My gut tells me a lot of these aggressive moves in and out are still not with real money, but TSP Talk money for fun and sport. What say you?

I only had 8.5 short years to contribute to TSP and did not max out my contributions during that time. It's real money on the tracker for me. My whopping 4 plus percent is real money in the bank which feels pretty good. I exited all my positions on July 31st. So far this year is about a 3.5% year to date in all retirement accounts and I am OK with that.

Might take a TSP position next week to get myself setup for September.

 

[burrocrat]

my tsptalk trades are mirrored with mine and the gov's free money in my real $ tsp account. i did not even contribute for several of the years of the 9 i have been eligible for the free 5% match.

to be quite honest, i expect to die before i get old. hell, it was only a few years ago i realized i might actually make it to 45. but that was mainly due to past life choices and a healthy respect for plans that always going wrong at some point. now i am going to smack the crap out of the market and roll it over good for some riches. ahhh yeah.

that's the plan, man.

 

[FogSailing]

Good question. I've followed TSP Talk for a long time....I think since about 2005 or 2006. I'm glad we have the Tracker and abide by the Tracker rules. I've never been in the top group, not a real aggressive trader/investor and have found it's just an easy way for me to keep a tag on where I am amongst a bunch of other like minded "fed-e-rally" trading geeks. I've always enjoyed the Tracker and find it a useful tool in gaging where my thinking is compared to others. You may be right that some use the system incorrectly, but I see the most interesting strategies looking over the Tracker and it often helps me to make my mind up. The one thing I wish the Tracker reported on is the Median Group in the Tracker. Ocean's updates discuss the Top guys, the Bottom guys and the whole herd. I wish we had some data on the Median group.

FS

 

[Boghie]

AutoTracker is accurate for me. Early on I missed a few entries by a day because I didn't really understand the timing - but the difference is minimal.

For me, any difference is the result of my contributions gaining or declining over the year. That is the compounding of earnings - or the buffer of buying low... The AT cannot really track on that...

 

[nnuut]

The tracker is GREAT it gives you and the others that participate a pretty accurate idea of how you are doing with your market moves and compares your gains or losses with theirs. what more do you want, it's on a daily basis and reflects weekly, monthly and yearly gains or losses based on your input, AND IT'S FREE!!!!!. I haven't seen anything better.

 

[PessOptimist]

Bringing this back up. I see a lot people concerned about their ranking on the Auto-tracker. My gut tells me a lot of these aggressive moves in and out are still not with real money, but TSP Talk money for fun and sport. What say you?

I only had 8.5 short years to contribute to TSP and did not max out my contributions during that time. It's real money on the tracker for me. My whopping 4 plus percent is real money in the bank which feels pretty good. I exited all my positions on July 31st. So far this year is about a 3.5% year to date in all retirement accounts and I am OK with that.

Might take a TSP position next week to get myself setup for September.

OBX, its real money for a lot of us taking in to consideration that the percentages change as the funds go up or down and may not get changed if IFTs are not made.

If it is a fantasy account for some, who cares? You can still see the moves they posted and see what that strategy would have resulted in. If it is an ego thing where you feel compelled to point out someone may be cheating, go for it. Personally I don’t care if the top five or 50 or 600 are beating me.

Look at it as either a game or a tool. I prefer to see it as a tool and wouldn’t give a rodent’s rump about AT accounts reflecting reality or not. If 15% is based on fantasy IFTs so what? The moves posted even if not real would result in 15%. Examine them.
Good luck with your investments.

PO

 

[OBXTrader]

Thanks everyone those are great opinions. I guess if we were Bogle-heads we would all have it in and never do an IFT at all.

A 100% move with "real" money into the I Fund would not work for me I suppose. If this was part of a large retirement plan and that was my international play, I guess it might work.

 

[WorkFE]

I think most do mirror their account. However IFT's are reflected on the tracker but not additional contributions and match for those still working. So when you hold a long term position ether defensively (Bonds) or offensively (Stocks) it more than likely gets out of wack by small %'s.