Does The AutoTracker Reflect Your Real TSP Account Moves?

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I guess I'm trying to figure out this thread. There are historical performances for each on the AT. If you are following the AT as a guiding factor, then I would think you would choose the best performers regardless of real/not real trading....
 
Frixxxx - It's not real deep, just was curious who has the conviction to risk real money going 100% S Fund for example. I am not there, nor likely will be since I am unable to contribute any longer.

Also, I am not a Premium Member so the results I see for you are based on last IFT on 30 April 2013 50% S Fund and 50% I Fund which is different than your signature line.

Frixxxx said:
I guess I'm trying to figure out this thread. There are historical performances for each on the AT. If you are following the AT as a guiding factor, then I would think you would choose the best performers regardless of real/not real trading....
Click to expand...
 
Yeah, I posted the issue on my account thread so everyone could see it. I don't use the AT for much except to review where the "lucky ones" are.
 
OBXTrader said:
Sensei - We are in agreement as that was my observations. I just wondered how many at the very top or bottom are playing with real money or house money. I would die if I really was losing that much money in my real TSP account as the bottom dwellers.
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Well, I'm at the bottom and my AT always reflects my actual IFT. I don't see what is so hard about doing that. I always update my AT right after entering an IFT. I can see there being a problem if you can't get to the AT at work, but what you usually hear is: "I forgot to enter it into the AT." That makes it sound more like there is a difference between their actual and AT IFT's IMHO.

My contributions are different. I don't use the AT to try to match my actual balance, only my IFT decisions.
 
OBXTrader said:
Frixxxx - It's not real deep, just was curious who has the conviction to risk real money going 100% S Fund for example. I am not there, nor likely will be since I am unable to contribute any longer.
Click to expand...

My AT reflects my real TSP. Each move I make is a 3 part process: First: Allocation change Second: Contribution change to reflect the new allocation Third: AT change.

I use the AT as a barometer as to what others are thinking to help me make my decisions and it provides me feedback as to how I'm doing with my choices compared to the herd.

Not sure its a "conviction" but I feel the only way I'll be able to reach my 7 figure goal at retirement is to move the entire egg to whichever nest(s) feels the most comfortable at the time and keep everything working for me. With an improving balance I don't make many moves, I'm careful with each one, but figure I need all eight cylinders full throttle to get to where I'm headed.
 
Unmanned said:
I use the AT as a barometer as to what others are thinking to help me make my decisions and it provides me feedback as to how I'm doing with my choices compared to the herd.
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Exactly. The AT is a tool to help others decide what to do with their TSP account not something to use as the only decision maker.

Back when daily IFT's were availible there were a handful of members that had followings. When they made a move a group of us made the same move. I think the biggest difference then versus now is most of those folks would post about 15 minutes before noon to say why they were making the move. You understood why they made the decision. Not much of that going on today. Plus the 2 IFT's per month has made most of us more cautious and forced us to try to understand the market a little better and not depend on someone else to decide for us.
 
OB,

In a way I think you hit your issues on the head. There may be a few folks who purposely clobber their AT records in some form of attempting to backdate some form of system. I guess you could do that, and keep the review of the system performance honest. Right now there are some funds, fund managers, and especially hedge funds that used backdated studies that didn't reflect the movement of real money or even the live movement of phony money (what might be happening here). They had big fake returns that were hedged via 20/20 hindsight.

However, there is another issue you are alluding to that cannot be honorably resolved. For example, since I have been 29 years old for lots of years then maybe that is why I invest the way I do. You are a prime example. You stated you can no longer invest like you did a few decades ago. Makes sense. Losing 20% of your holdings at your first 29th year is really different than losing 20% of your holdings in your 21st 29th year, eh:cheesy:. So, yeah, the pups around here - and the very experienced market watchers - can and probably should hang around in the pure equity funds and can gamble with fast moves. I wouldn't do it, but it doesn't really hurt. The rest of us are on the slow train.

Finally, there are some very savvy folks at the bottom of this year's AT.
  1. Don't count them out. They may not win a mug but the market moves as the market moves.
  2. They take risks, but often those risks pan out. Check last years returns (and previous years returns) on those folks.
 
I am actually learning a great deal from this thread in a short period of time. Thank you to all for contributing.
 
If the AT is correct, only 52 people have double digit gains so far this year. Last year I made 19.53%. This year I will lucky to break 5.0% - pathetic. :mad:
 
jkenjohnson said:
Last year I made 19.53%. This year I will lucky to break 5.0% - pathetic. :mad:
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JKJ In my view those 2 year returns average out 12.25%/ year! I'll take that avg all the way to the retirement patio swing!! Congratulations!!
 
my biggest fear about retirement, besides if i live long enough to retire, is that there will not be someone there who loves me enough to change my bedpan.
 
Unmanned said:
My AT reflects my real TSP. Each move I make is a 3 part process: First: Allocation change Second: Contribution change to reflect the new allocation Third: AT change.
.
Click to expand...

same goes for me... I don't understand why anyone would have a false AT, it doesn't make sense to me. unless you're trying to figure out the would've, could've, should've moves, but to me that just makes it lame for those of us who don't do that. maybe, try figuring that out on your own instead of taking up space... just my opinion! :D
 
czapor1967 said:
same goes for me... I don't understand why anyone would have a false AT, it doesn't make sense to me. unless you're trying to figure out the would've, could've, should've moves, but to me that just makes it lame for those of us who don't do that. maybe, try figuring that out on your own instead of taking up space... just my opinion! :D
Click to expand...

Mine is 1-1.5% low because I forgot to enter an previous IFT in the AT. If you forget a couple of times, like me, it can really throw your performance numbers off.
 
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