Stocks got off to an interesting start on December 1st hitting near the daily highs within the first 30 minutes of trading, than nearly giving those gains back before the bulls took charge taking the indices higher into the close and closing at the highs of the day.
On Friday morning we get the November jobs report and estimates are looking for a gain of 196,000 jobs, and an unemployment rate of 5.0%. The Jobs Report Contest is now open in the forum. Click here
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The first trading day of a new month does tend to be a big day (up or down), but it can also be a peak / bottom and the beginning of a reversal in trend so it could be a fake-out as well. This chart shows how the market more often than not, reverses direction at, just before, or right after the start of a new month.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) broke out of that small bull flag we mentioned yesterday. The obvious upside target would be to test the recent highs. If there was a negative it was that the trading volume didn't spike during the breakout, and actually Monday's volume was higher on a negative day.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Completion Index (small caps / S-fund) finally closed above the 200-day EMA (blue) on Tuesday. The chart formation looks good and the obstacle was the 200-day EMA and the next challenge is the red resistance line.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The small caps of the Russell 2000 are also hitting some resistance but the tough part of taking out the 200-day EMA was accomplished last week.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index bounced back from its bad day on Monday, but once again it is staring at the 200-day EMA which has repeatedly held as resistance for months.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-Fund) gapped up at Tuesday's open and may be hitting some resistance here (descending red line) but it has now bounced above the 50-day EMA with a little conviction.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dollar did break down from the rising wedge that we mentioned yesterday. The open gap and the 50-day EMA look like ripe targets if this is a real breakdown.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Yesterday I said that "something is going to have to give here" in reference to the AGG (Bonds / F-Fund). If I had to make a guess I would have said the downside looks more obvious, but the bond market always seems to zig when I think it is going to zag so I purposely didn't make a call. So here it is now back above the rising support line after breaking above the 50-day EMA and the bear flag formation.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
On Friday morning we get the November jobs report and estimates are looking for a gain of 196,000 jobs, and an unemployment rate of 5.0%. The Jobs Report Contest is now open in the forum. Click here
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The first trading day of a new month does tend to be a big day (up or down), but it can also be a peak / bottom and the beginning of a reversal in trend so it could be a fake-out as well. This chart shows how the market more often than not, reverses direction at, just before, or right after the start of a new month.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) broke out of that small bull flag we mentioned yesterday. The obvious upside target would be to test the recent highs. If there was a negative it was that the trading volume didn't spike during the breakout, and actually Monday's volume was higher on a negative day.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Completion Index (small caps / S-fund) finally closed above the 200-day EMA (blue) on Tuesday. The chart formation looks good and the obstacle was the 200-day EMA and the next challenge is the red resistance line.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The small caps of the Russell 2000 are also hitting some resistance but the tough part of taking out the 200-day EMA was accomplished last week.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index bounced back from its bad day on Monday, but once again it is staring at the 200-day EMA which has repeatedly held as resistance for months.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-Fund) gapped up at Tuesday's open and may be hitting some resistance here (descending red line) but it has now bounced above the 50-day EMA with a little conviction.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dollar did break down from the rising wedge that we mentioned yesterday. The open gap and the 50-day EMA look like ripe targets if this is a real breakdown.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Yesterday I said that "something is going to have to give here" in reference to the AGG (Bonds / F-Fund). If I had to make a guess I would have said the downside looks more obvious, but the bond market always seems to zig when I think it is going to zag so I purposely didn't make a call. So here it is now back above the rising support line after breaking above the 50-day EMA and the bear flag formation.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
