Cactus
Well-known member
You want to look in the I Fund section of the forum for explanations on FV like this one: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/i-fund/3111-what-fv-how-does-work.html
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czapor1967's Account Talk
- Thread starter czapor1967
- Start date
czapor1967
Member
January seems not to be the S funds best month, but how is it when a new president is sworn in? normally I go to F in January, but my gut is saying stay where you are...
anybody have any thoughts on this? :scratchchin:
Thanks,
Chris
anybody have any thoughts on this? :scratchchin:
Thanks,
Chris
evilanne
Well-known member
I can let you know in February
One study shows "all of the major stock market declines occurred during the first or second years of the four-year U.S. presidential cycle." The Four-Year U.S. Presidential Cycle and the Stock Market | Graziadio Business Review | Graziadio School of Business and Management | Pepperdine University Other studies show that. economy does better with a Democratic President :dunno:
Tsunami
Well-known member
How has the S fund performed during January when a new President is inaugurated?
I now have a full 30 years of monthly data going back to January 1987, so I can answer that. Here's the January returns for the last four Presidents:
1989 – George H.W. Bush: F +1.27%, C +7.14%,S+5.48%, +1.76%
1993 – Clinton: F +1.88%, C +0.86%, S +2.18%,I -0.12%
2001 – George W. Bush: F +1.65%, C +3.55%, S+5.44%, I -0.05%
2009 – Barrack Obama: F -0.86%, C -8.41%, S -8.19%, I -11.93%
That’s not a lot of data to go by, and the ugly climax to the 2007-09 bear market skews the results. Hard to draw any conclusions other than it’s a bad month for the I fund.
I now have a full 30 years of monthly data going back to January 1987, so I can answer that. Here's the January returns for the last four Presidents:
1989 – George H.W. Bush: F +1.27%, C +7.14%,S+5.48%, +1.76%
1993 – Clinton: F +1.88%, C +0.86%, S +2.18%,I -0.12%
2001 – George W. Bush: F +1.65%, C +3.55%, S+5.44%, I -0.05%
2009 – Barrack Obama: F -0.86%, C -8.41%, S -8.19%, I -11.93%
That’s not a lot of data to go by, and the ugly climax to the 2007-09 bear market skews the results. Hard to draw any conclusions other than it’s a bad month for the I fund.
evilanne
Well-known member
You can go back further for the C fund. Monthly pricing back to the 1800's S&P 500 Historical Prices by Month
czapor1967
Member
excellent replies, Thank You!!! 
Chris
Chris
