03/19/13
Stocks opened lower yesterday on the news out of Cyprus, but not quite as bad as the overnight futures had indicated.
The emotional Monday morning action saw buyers jump on the early triple digit loss in the Dow, and take it back into positive territory, before selling picked up again in late trading. The Dow closed down 62-points.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 149"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0128%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.13%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.55%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.43%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.41%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 broke below the apex of a small rising wedge pattern and after a brief stint below 1550, managed to close above it at 1552.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
If the topping patterns we saw during the last year are going to repeat, we may be seeing the formation of a top here, but there's nothing terribly wrong with that since the longer-term trend is still up.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The question for investors and traders would be, do you want to ride a possible correction down to the bottom of the long-term rising trading channel if that happens, or would you rather step aside and try to buy back in at a lower price? It's never as easy as it sounds, but the only way to beat the market indices is to be out of stocks when they go down.
Just a follow-up on the Semiconductor Index that I profiled yesterday: The 2013 rising trading channel and the 20-day EMA have been broken on this leading index, which is a warning sign. There could be support once the open gap gets filled near 425, otherwise there's the 50-day EMA. I didn't mark it on the chart, but that open gap near 385 from December 28 is still open.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The modest losses yesterday did little to affect the indicators so let's stick with the charts. There's several short-term concerns in the charts but the major indices (S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, and Transportation Index) are all still in their intermediate-term uptrends.
As I write this on Monday night at 10:30 PM ET, the share prices on www.tsp.gov have not been updated for Monday so the share prices and returns on TSP Talk, and the AutoTracker, have not yet been updated. Hopefully by the time you read this it will have been taken care of.
Administrative note: We are starting our annual March Madness contest. For more info, see THIS POST in the forum.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks opened lower yesterday on the news out of Cyprus, but not quite as bad as the overnight futures had indicated.
The emotional Monday morning action saw buyers jump on the early triple digit loss in the Dow, and take it back into positive territory, before selling picked up again in late trading. The Dow closed down 62-points.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 149"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0128%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.13%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.55%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.43%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.41%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 broke below the apex of a small rising wedge pattern and after a brief stint below 1550, managed to close above it at 1552.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
If the topping patterns we saw during the last year are going to repeat, we may be seeing the formation of a top here, but there's nothing terribly wrong with that since the longer-term trend is still up.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The question for investors and traders would be, do you want to ride a possible correction down to the bottom of the long-term rising trading channel if that happens, or would you rather step aside and try to buy back in at a lower price? It's never as easy as it sounds, but the only way to beat the market indices is to be out of stocks when they go down.
Just a follow-up on the Semiconductor Index that I profiled yesterday: The 2013 rising trading channel and the 20-day EMA have been broken on this leading index, which is a warning sign. There could be support once the open gap gets filled near 425, otherwise there's the 50-day EMA. I didn't mark it on the chart, but that open gap near 385 from December 28 is still open.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The modest losses yesterday did little to affect the indicators so let's stick with the charts. There's several short-term concerns in the charts but the major indices (S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, and Transportation Index) are all still in their intermediate-term uptrends.
As I write this on Monday night at 10:30 PM ET, the share prices on www.tsp.gov have not been updated for Monday so the share prices and returns on TSP Talk, and the AutoTracker, have not yet been updated. Hopefully by the time you read this it will have been taken care of.
Administrative note: We are starting our annual March Madness contest. For more info, see THIS POST in the forum.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
