craigerv's Account Talk

[craigerv]

I ended up staying 50% S at the end of July as my system is teetering right on the edge of buy/sell. I don't want to waste an IFT at this point and lose the opportunity to sell and then buy in at a lower price so I'm going to wait a bit. I'm looking to stay above 1670 this week. Still thinking something like 2011 may happen but if enough people are looking for the pull-back I can see why we drift higher. Good Luck!

 

[craigerv]

I didn't mention it because I was out of town last week but I went 100% G on Friday 8/16. I think I'll likely stay out for at least the next couple weeks. I don't see a lot of reason to test out what could be a large head and shoulders on the long term chart.

 

[craigerv]

The long-term chart is still looking ominous to me. Volume has been decreasing for weeks and the MACD signal line is heading lower. I think we could see a bounce in the next couple of weeks but I don't think I'll buy a dip unless we approach 1550 at the 52 week EMA. Otherwise I'll be waiting until the MACD signal turns positive.

 

[craigerv]

I've stayed out for most of October now in the F Fund. But now that we've exceeded our prior high again I'm rolling back to a buy this week so long as nothing drastic happens tomorrow morning. I'll only go 50% S tomorrow as it sure feels like I'm buying at a top. The past two breaks above prior highs did not last too long but I'm at least a little encouraged by the slight increase in volume. PPO signals on the long-term chart are a little weak as it's been a while since we've had any sort of correction. We'll see what happens, good luck!

 

[craigerv]

Sold yesterday as I got a signal on Tuesday to get out. I'm always a little skeptical in December of a sell signal but my feeling is that Fed news is a little overblown. I am nervous being in the F found, however. I still have a green light there but it's a fading green light. My indicators have been right on the edge of buy/sell signals this year so it has been difficult to feel confident in any trade. I'm at 10% for the year at the moment which I can't say I'm upset about. Looking back, it is near impossible to beat the market return in a year up 15% or more so its no surprise that the S Fund is ranked 3rd on the AutoTracker. Kudos to those 2 who have beaten it this far! Good luck in the last couple weeks of December and lets look forward to 2014!

 

[craigerv]

Well 2013 was interesting. It started out great and I caught the big trend in the Spring but by the Summer my signal had kicked out a few times. Firstly I got caught forecasting my signal and paid for it! I missed the dip buying opportunity in June because I expected another down week. It rebounded so fast that I missed the run-up! Once again I got caught not trusting my signal. Then the choppy action for the next few months had the signal teetering between a buy/sell. So this year I learned I need to be tougher following my signals. I'm going to keep this google chart around to remind me to stick to it!

So far this year I'm on the right side of things but we'll see where we're at in a couple weeks. I'm looking at buying back in if the S&P drops between 1757-1700. Good luck!

 

[craigerv]

We've breached my 1757 target price so I'll be buying in at least 50% this week, likely Friday. If we drop off a serious cliff this week, like in 2011, I may hold off a bit and wait for the rebound. Good luck!

 

[craigerv]

I bought in 50% last week expecting a little better price this week or next. We've rallied since but I still don't trust this quick rebound. Volume has not seemed to increase with price so I still remain skeptical. Also PPO is showing a negative divergence. I'll wait with the other 50% until we either drop significantly or the volume/price become more in sync like during the past year.

 

[craigerv]

Well I've been in the F fund since the 28th as I had met my price target for the last dip. Almost flipped back to a buy this week as we approached 1880 except for the weakness that showed up. I'm always a little nervous when dips rebound a bit too quickly. I'll be staying in the F fund for the next week as a result. Good luck out there!

 

[craigerv]

The F fund is approaching a sell for me if it stays in this trading range much longer. I've held it at least 50% since Jan 14th so I'm up about 1% in it, but the G fund is up 0.5% in that time so as this trading range lasts it is becoming less appealing to hold it. Since I'm out of equities already it doesn't matter too much to burn an IFT as I'll still be able to buy back in if my signal changes.

 

[craigerv]

Taking a look back at a system that RMI used to post within his big conglomerate spreadsheet of systems. The system is called long-short timing and can be found here: Model Returns

I checked out the site and signed up to receive the signals as its free by email. They post impressive back-tested results but I was curious if it would work very well live since the majority of their gains seemed to come from shorting the 2000-02 and 2008 markets. I've been receiving their signals since June 2012. I tracked it with a google finance portfolio with $10k and here's the chart since then. They go long/short on QQQ.





You can see that following their signals, I'm actually down -10% while the QQQ is up +40% and was as high as +50% a month ago.

Since 2013 wasn't the best year for market timers (since the market just went straight up!) maybe it is a bit premature to evaluate this system but I still think there are some valuable lessons I've learned about creating a timing system from watching some others. First of all, shorting the market can be dangerous. If you're wrong, you lose quickly. The second and perhaps most important lesson is written right at the top of their results tracking page:

"Our actual results for 2012 was about -4% because of not issuing the Long signal that was established on 12/28/11. That was the first time we have not issued a signal. We will issue all signals like we have done and not allow our personal bias to alter the system. "

This is the hardest part about using a system. You have to actually follow it. If you second-guess it and don't follow it, you've just introduced the worst variable possible into the system: your emotions. They've conveniently listed their returns for 2012 (+13%) as if they had followed their system when in reality they did much worse (-4%). They've also not updated their site with the 2013 returns, which by my tabulation is around +1.76%. Compare that to the QQQ's +34% over that period.

The goal when creating a system is to know exactly what it does and does not do. I feel that you must resist "tweaking" a system just because you have a poor performing month or even year. Each time you do, you allow single data points to influence your results and make it that much harder to follow the signals live.

I'll keep monitoring this system to see if they can rebound from the last 1.5 year slump.

 

[Cactus]

This is the hardest part about using a system. You have to actually follow it. If you second-guess it and don't follow it, you've just introduced the worst variable possible into the system: your emotions.

Exactly!

 

[Whipsaw]

Taking a look back at a system that RMI used to post within his big conglomerate spreadsheet of systems.

Would that be the legendary OCD Chart!? :nuts:

 

[craigerv]

Well today is looking rocky from the start. The top 50 is about to get a shakedown.

 

[craigerv]

Slowly but surely, the peloton of the C-Fund is catching up. I'm a seller at 1950 this week, next week almost for sure if we don't move higher. Bonds are iffy to me so I think I'd trust the G-Fund more if the sell comes. Good luck out there, have a plan.

 

[craigerv]

Well, we're at my sell stop. I almost put in an IFT this morning because its the end of the month but then I realized that there isn't much advantage to moving OUT of the market for the first of the month. Being IN on the 1st and going OUT and then back IN is where the advantage lies. Stupid monthly IFT rules. And with that I'll wait for a closing price at/below 1954. Otherwise a sell next week is a near certainty.

 

[craigerv]

S&P dipped into my buy range today so I'm planning on at least a 50% move for tomorrow. Usually I stick to the S Fund but that huge ominous head and shoulders on the small caps chart worries me. I'm considering putting the first 50% into the C fund and looking for an entry into the S fund in the following week(s) for the other half. Usually I find that going 100% when I get a signal is the best bet though. Good luck out there!

 

[TSPIntel]

what is the charts indicating? Hope is going up soon... I am very curious... Thank U 4 Sharing....

 

[craigerv]

Looks like some old support showed up on the small caps chart. Will have to wait and see if the current rebound is sufficient to stem the breakdown from the large head and shoulders. I reached my buy-in target yesterday afternoon so I'll be heading in 50% into the S Fund. I still feel that we may get better prices in the next 2 weeks so I will be looking for another buy-in opportunity for the 2nd half.

 

[craigerv]

Was hoping to get prices below 1900 on the S&P and yesterday the end of day bleed off met that and beyond. I put in my IFT for today 100% S and will plan on holding it until we either get back up to the peak (around 2010) or go well South on the order of 2011.