craigerv's Account Talk

[craigerv]

What a ridiculous, whirlwind day. Bonds blew up, then crumbled back to earth. Stocks jumped off the deep end, swam half-way back, then grabbed the scuba gear, and now they learned how to fly? (at least the small caps did). Check your emotions at the door.

 

[craigerv]

Wow, I can't believe that we're already right back up to the peak! That quick drop and recovery seems to be the norm since 2013.

 

[craigerv]

Tom's commentary has been mentioning the possible inverted head & shoulders pattern. If it comes to fruition, this wouldn't be a bad place. Since 2013 the 26 week EMA area has been a reliable source of support. My system is likely to kick me out of the market this week but I will be watching this area near 1982 for a bounce.

 

[craigerv]

I'm pleased with my 2014. I followed my signals even when I was skeptical and overall I'm satisfied. If I were a buy-and-holder I'd be in the S-Fund and I beat that return this year so I'm happy. I was hovering just outside the top 10 at the end of the year but got kicked out by that December dip. Oh well, I'm invested heading into January so let's see what 2015 brings! Good luck in the New Year!

 

[craigerv]

Ah, so this is what its like being dead last... I've had bad starts to the year in the past, 2005 & 2006 come to mind. 2005 had me at -10% going into May and 2006 had me -4% heading into August. Both of those years ended fine so I'm using that to keep me on track. This year has been challenging so far for me but things can change quickly so I'm remaining impartial.

 

[craigerv]

Just looking at the larger picture, the 52w EMA has been a reliable buying opportunity. Even if you don't buy at the very bottom, it still seems to get you most of the way there for the medium to longer term picture.




For the past 5 years it's done a decent job getting near a bottom. 2011 is the one big overshoot but if you buy at the end of the week it would've gotten you close-ish.





Even in the previous decade, the 52w EMA seemed to be a good place to buy.

 

[GUCHI]

I like your chart hope it follows the previous 52 week ema since I'm in get n beat up pretty bad these last couple of days.

 

[craigerv]

I wanted to wait with the other half of my tsp account to try to buy closer to the previous low but because we're limited to just the two IFTs, I decided to buy yesterday to save the other IFT for this month. Nuts! Would have really liked to be able to wait until today!

 

[craigerv]

Any serious doom & gloomers out there? This neckline seems pretty important.

SCHA is Schwab's small cap fun (similar to our S Fund)

 

[Tsunami]

Don't have to be a "serious doom and gloomer" to see that that is a very pretty H&S pattern, targeting another 20% drop once the neckline is broken. That looks like a good target to me for the bottom, around April-ish perhaps.

 

[nnuut]

Looks like a Doji forming in the S&P!

 

[craigerv]

Well this isn't looking too good.

 

[craigerv]

2015 Review for me. Well I typically expect my system to return similarly to my benchmark (small caps) in most years but through backtesting it typically outperforms in years with a down-turn or two. I did have a little trouble following the signals this year again because in one or two cases as soon as I received a signal to buy, the market bounced and I didn't want to chase. Foolishly I held out for a lower price. It cost me. Had I followed blindly I would have done quite a bit better. But in August I caught way back up as I followed my signals much better and with no remorse as the market turned lower. The other thing that has dinged me in the past has been my use of the F-fund. I really need to come to a better strategy. What I am doing is definitely not working. Chart below for my use of the system vs my benchmark SCHA (similar to S-fund).



Easy to see where I struggled in 2015. But since the recent down-turn I've caught up a lot of ground. The 2013-current chart shows that I'm all-square since I started. That's what the system is for. Not really for beating the market when things are good. Much more about missing down-turns.

 

[craigerv]

Earlier this year I was very close to if not DEAD LAST on the Autotracker! Now I've inched my way into the top-100! What the hell happened!?

 

[craigerv]

2016 Review showing my account vs the S-Fund. I was definitely worried that this year was going to end up just like 2015. Even as late as June I still had a negative return. At some point I was actually dead last on the AutoTracker! Then finally caught the bounce in November that I was looking for and leapt up into the 10% range. It goes to show you that the market doesn't just chug upward at a constant clip. Often it moves in leaps, up or down. So don't be discouraged if your system isn't working out over the short term, it's the long term that counts.

 

[pmaloney]

Congratulations! :smile: