Corepuncher's Account Talk

[Show-me]

Meredith is happily married to a pro wrestler - what does that tell you?

Yea, you better git up off my girl. She has been spot on there Freddie Fannie boy.:toung:

 

[post]

Meredith is happily married to a pro wrestler - what does that tell you?

Meredith is happily married.

 

[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker COB 9/15/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +10.08%
Today: +0.03% (Booyah!)
Current Allocation: 100G
Tentative Next Move: What the futile FED "relief" rally that will likely ensue...until the market gets back to basics and realizes everything is still crap.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Corepuncher]

(also on Steady's thread).

October could be a scary month. Lets just SAY the the fed extends a bridge loan to AIG. Fine, but it's only a LOAN...and if house prices continue to decrease, AIG is just delaying their own screwing. What about Lehman? 400 Billion on assets will suddenly flood the markets...driving prices down I assume??

I fully expect a few rallies based on oversold conditions...but a nuke has just gone off and people are still stunned. Oil prices going down so much is actually bad for many funds. Ripples are coming.

As long as we are in a bear market, I will continue to only go in for a percent or two...then back out into G. I will do this until the 100 day EMA moves above the 200 day EMA. Obviously if you sold back in January when the long term moving averages crossed...you are sitting pretty. (and we did it again recently, not shown on old chart)...

Further, if you sold once the lower bollinger band was broken (early September), you are also in an enviable position. I'm gonna keep using these methods until they fail.

 

[Corepuncher]

Washington Mutual, Wachovia, Morgan Stanley, Citibank, Goldman Sachs...you all have targets on your backs now. I'll give you a 10 second head start before the hedge funds start shorting you all to zero. 1....2....3........

So, AIG not going under yet is a reason to rally? I'm hearing some say the housing bottom is near? Are they INSANE???

Here's a little secret...the sun will rise tomorrow. Lets all celebrate with a big rally since the sun did not go out.

And by the way, look at the Hang Seng index...started up 2.2%..now down 1.84% and falling.

Updated Tracker COB 9/16/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +10.09%
Today: +0.01%
Current Allocation: 100G
Tentative Next Move: Watch the futile FED "relief" rally that will likely ensue...until the market gets back to basics and realizes everything is still crap going forward.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Braveheart]

Washington Mutual, Wachovia, Morgan Stanley, Citibank, Goldman Sachs...you all have targets on your backs now. I'll give you a 10 second head start before the hedge funds start shorting you all to zero. 1....2....3........

So, AIG not going under yet is a reason to rally? I'm hearing some say the housing bottom is near? Are they INSANE???

Here's a little secret...the sun will rise tomorrow. Lets all celebrate with a big rally since the sun did not go out.

And by the way, look at the Hang Seng index...started up 2.2%..now down 1.84% and falling.

Updated Tracker COB 9/16/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +10.09%
Today: +0.01%
Current Allocation: 100G
Tentative Next Move: Watch the futile FED "relief" rally that will likely ensue...until the market gets back to basics and realizes everything is still crap going forward.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I noticed the foreign markets are dropping and now Oil is going up again. Round & Round we go. AORD is down & Nikkei was up over 2% and is now dropping fast. Look at the leading reason why !!! Don't know anything about this bank but it is taking a beating.
SHINSEI BANK LTD275-12.42

Yesterday Shinsei lost 16 percent to 314 yen so it is connected to Lehman/AIG/

 

[KevinD]

(also on Steady's thread).

October could be a scary month.

Core. I admit I'm not one of the the sharpest knives in the drawer but this one post gave me one of those "Ah Ha" moments.

Thanks!

 

[Steadygain]

CP,
http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html

I think Tom is right on target in his general assessment.

Have considered your recent post to my thread and obviously it would be very easy to attach buy - sell signals once the chart has been established; BUT I BELIEVE YOU ARE BEYOND THAT.

I'm eagar to learn how to guage these things for the present and future. So I'd very much appreciate your insights. I'm not familiar with "Bollinger (sp) Bands" - so consider me a 1st grader with a genius mind that readily absorbs and understands.

I'm convinced you know your stuff (as your living proof)

Thanks in advance,
Steady

 

[RonUSPSretired]

I second Steady's motion, could use more of your insight CP!!

CP,
http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html

I think Tom is right on target in his general assessment.

Have considered your recent post to my thread and obviously it would be very easy to attach buy - sell signals once the chart has been established; BUT I BELIEVE YOU ARE BEYOND THAT.

I'm eagar to learn how to guage these things for the present and future. So I'd very much appreciate your insights. I'm not familiar with "Bollinger (sp) Bands" - so consider me a 1st grader with a genius mind that readily absorbs and understands.

I'm convinced you know your stuff (as your living proof)

Thanks in advance,
Steady

 

[nnuut]

Bollinger Bands, that and more:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators

 

[Corepuncher]

Bollinger Bands, that and more:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators

Thanks Nnuut for the link...and as a reminder, I put together a page of various indices, showing the B bands...click for larger images, and refresh for latest data.

http://www.corepuncher.com/misc/stocks.html

I'm no expert but I guess technical analysis and finding signals within vast seas of data come naturally to me since I do that each day at my job. I have to say, forecasting weather IS easier than forecasting the market...at least so far that is what I have found. I've been forecasting weather for 10 times as long as I've been watching the stock market so perhaps I'll get better with time.

Anyway the whole bollinger band thing was just something I noticed as a pattern. An important thing to know is...that this method DOES NOT work in a bull market...only bear.

This method is 5 for 5 since last October. Again, if you TOUCH the lower B band, you will have a much lower buy in point at a later time...usually within a few weeks. This means...you may choose to SELL if you hit this threshold and buy in lower later.

 

[Steadygain]

No idea if we're in a B Band - but I wouldn't waste my time in F Fund.

Don't mean to put ya on the spot - and I know it's highly unpredictable

But any suggestions for C/S/I entry points?

 

[love-to-bike]

But any suggestions for C/S/I entry points?

Yes, unfortunately for many of us it is the first of the month.

 

[ATCJeff]

No idea if we're in a B Band - but I wouldn't waste my time in F Fund.

Don't mean to put ya on the spot - and I know it's highly unpredictable

But any suggestions for C/S/I entry points?

For the first time since we started the 2 IFT's, I wish I had a third! I would have probably made a IFT tomorrow.

 

[XL-entLady]

I put together a page of various indices, showing the B bands....

CP, thanks again for the page. When you posted the link the first time, I booked it into my Favorites group that I open to study first thing every morning. It's a great way to get my first overview of the general situation before I choose what to study in-depth each day. My sincere appreciation!

Lady

 

[Steadygain]

I put together a page of various indices, showing the B bands...click for larger images, and refresh for latest data.

Gosh :embarrest::embarrest:

Sorry CP, thanks to Lady - I went back and got the big views and everything...THANK YOU...sometimes my head probably really is in the clouds :nuts:

We'll see how tomorrow goes...will read Tom's Comments and get a feel for things. ATCJeff has stood out for quite awhile; so if there's an opportunity hopefully tomorrow will stand out more.

 

[Corepuncher]

For the first time since we started the 2 IFT's, I wish I had a third! I would have probably made a IFT tomorrow.

No idea if we're in a B Band - but I wouldn't waste my time in F Fund.

Don't mean to put ya on the spot - and I know it's highly unpredictable

But any suggestions for C/S/I entry points?

I usually talk in terms of C. Honestly...if I was not out of IFT's, I'm sure I would have bought at least 50% by now...Tue or Wed. My target was 1170-1180's, or the fall 2005 lows. We are below that already and next support is 1140ish...but really support several years back means nothing, IMO. Very few people will use levels from 3 years ago...rendering them useless. But just the same, I had 1170-1180 as my target.

But if I bought in today, I would STILL only be in for a trade, to try to catch a bear rally.

 

[Corepuncher]

IN the money stocks.com guys is still looking for an October bottom (good for us in G!). I hope he's right.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vHXAT44qKU

The matching system is showing very, very few matches...like 5-10. Interesting, a cluster of matches are September 19-24, 2002. 11-14 days later, we hit bottom of 776.76. Of course this time will be different since we are getting pressure on multiple fronts.

Method 1: Shows -2% over the next 10 days, then a whopping +5.4% days 11-20.

Method 2: Shows -3.1% next 10 days, then an even "whoppier" +10% days 11-20.

The other matches, ironically, were September 7th, 2001. Funny how they are all September!

Of course this is all a function of 1 matching period in history, but interesting nonetheless.


Updated Tracker COB 9/17/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +10.10%
Today: +0.01%
Current Allocation: 100G
Tentative Next Move: Watch and wait. Still think October will be bad.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Corepuncher]

What is up with all these people thinking the bottom is near in housing?

Can anyone please explain this to me:

HOUSING STARTS: 895K
NEW HOME SALES: 515K

Uh...more new homes being built than sold??? Am I reading this right???

 

[RonUSPSretired]

Thanks CP for the Bolinger interpretation and Nnuut for the Sharp charts explanation link. My understanding of technical analysis is finally starting to gel. CP, I've also added your page link to my TSP favourites group. Thanks again guys!--Ron

Thanks Nnuut for the link...and as a reminder, I put together a page of various indices, showing the B bands...click for larger images, and refresh for latest data.

http://www.corepuncher.com/misc/stocks.html

I'm no expert but I guess technical analysis and finding signals within vast seas of data come naturally to me since I do that each day at my job. I have to say, forecasting weather IS easier than forecasting the market...at least so far that is what I have found. I've been forecasting weather for 10 times as long as I've been watching the stock market so perhaps I'll get better with time.

Anyway the whole bollinger band thing was just something I noticed as a pattern. An important thing to know is...that this method DOES NOT work in a bull market...only bear.

This method is 5 for 5 since last October. Again, if you TOUCH the lower B band, you will have a much lower buy in point at a later time...usually within a few weeks. This means...you may choose to SELL if you hit this threshold and buy in lower later.