Corepuncher's Account Talk

[Corepuncher]

Hello all. I'm pretty much an amateur when it comes to stocks and like to focus on intermediate term moves. I guess I'll start my own thread and post comments.

I'm currently 100% G. Played the market a little bit several weeks ago when we were in a good trading range. Everyone is talking about retesting lows (1400 ish?). I'm looking at the 1440's to start nibbling again, perhaps 25% at a time.

The market looks technically challenged to me, with lower highs each time. We failed to break 1500 again and now I'm wondering when the next big move will be. I fund looks like a very long "flag"...just waiting for it to crash or break out. I just do not see much upside in the near term, with perhaps a steady drift back downwards. I'm looking at now through the next FED meeting as it's own block of time. FED dissapointed royally last time...looking for perhaps a selloff prior to the end of January (fearful of FED), then a rebound on a FED cut and wording change.

Should be lots of volatility coming up in the next few weeks. The down days have been much bigger and faster than the up days as of late. Also look how many new lows we are averaging...plus, the 50 MA below the 200 day...seems quite bearish. But then again, everyone is EXPECTING a retest so maybe we need to think a bit more outside the box. All in all, maybe this will result in a very good trading range, say 1450 - 1500 for a while.

 

[Corepuncher]

I ended up about 7% for 2007. This is despite making 1 very bad move...

After being "out" for a prolonged period of time, I decided to go 100% in stocks for a "short term bounce", then get back out. Guess what day I went in? July 25th. The market then tanked, but I rode the wave all the way until right after the September FED meeting, when I got the <BLEEP> out of Dodge! I was so happy just to get out of that unscathed!

So, I"ll take 7%! One thing I have to learn is when to get back in after being out. I was actually out from summer 2006 until that fateful day this July! I missed a HUGE rally. Now I"m hoping for another restest of lows (lower 1400's or so) to get back in, with incoming economic data determining exactly how long I want to trade ranges before getting in and sitting tight.

Does anyone have any "rules of thumb" when it comes to determining when you should cut your losses and get back into stocks (after being out a long time?).

 

[Show-me]

Welcome to the mb! The rule of thumb is "stops". How much are you willing to lose? 5%, 7.5%, 10%? It has to be a number of your choosing.

 

[Bullitt]

Does anyone have any "rules of thumb" when it comes to determining when you should cut your losses and get back into stocks.

There's never an exact number for stops. You've gotta find your own comfort zone. For example: If you trade with support and resistance in mind, then use a stop when support breaks. Just make sure that you stick to your method in order to keep emotions out of it.

No matter what the formula is, there will be head fakes when it comes to stops. Hedge Funds control close to 2 trillion US dollars in the market. They know just the right buttons to push when they need to trigger a mass of sell orders.

 

[Corepuncher]

Hello all. I really enjoy the challenge of market forecasting, and am learning more all the time. My profession is weather forecasting, and believe me when I say forecasting the weather is much easier than forecasting the market! For one thing, the atmosphere as to adhere to certain "rules" governed by physics....the market, well, it can do anything.

I find that some of the methods I use in forecasting weather also work, in general, with the market. I think the key is to not get too specific or precise, there is always grey area and you really need to think in terms of probabilities.

I actually was running a program on my linux computer at home trying to develop a method to beat the market based on historical S&P data. I may ressurrect it again at some point, it takes time to code that stuff, but it's fun.

As for the current market...I am bearish. I know we have all kinds of contrarian indicators, like Bulls to Bears ratios, etc, but, let me ask you this...do those methods work when you are in a downtrend? For example, I'm sure the bears outnumbered the bulls many times during the last bear market of early 2000's, which is a "buy" signal, right? I'd like to see a system that helps you avoid bear markets altogether! The 50 ma crossing below the 200 day ma worked very well in hindsight the last bear market...and that signal has appeared now:

chart

By the way, we have good 5 weeks before the effects of the late July/August correction bring the 200 ma much lower, so if we move down, sideways or even slightly up, the 50 ma will still be below the 200 ma.

So, I'm apt to remain 100G or F until the market breaks out convincingly above the 1500-1520 mark, when we stop making these "lower highs".

 

[kar_crazy]

welcome to M B i see your in my back yard normans my stomping grounds G L & see you around

 

[kar_crazy]

flight line cafe at max westhiemer has a great breakfast or lunch

 

[Corepuncher]

I just don't see very much upside, even if the jobs data friday is slightly better than expected. 1480-1500 range tops? Is a mediocre jobs report something to cause a rally to within 3-5% of all time highs on S&P?! The way things are going, any rally early or mid day may be sold off by the close.

Speaking for myself, I'm not going to short cover until 1400-1420 range. Judging from what I have been hearing others say, a test of those levels and perhaps sub-1400 is anticipated...so why would anyone who is out get back in at 1450+?? I think there will be continued lack of buying interest until we gradually edge down below 1435, just my opinion.

In the FED minutes they also mentioned a scenario where they would have to repeal rate cuts.

"Members also recognized that financial market conditions

might improve more rapidly than members expected,
in which case a reversal of some of the rate cuts​

might become appropriate."

MACD below zero and crossing signal line, 50 day ma below 200 day ma, and uncertaintly still exists as a background worry. Oil is 100 dollars...say it out loud...100 dollars a barrel!!! I'm not smart enough to know exactly how all the mechanisms work in the economy, but I can say that in general, there is a lot of uncertainty out there, and just pure probability an chaos theory suggest there will be a much better buying opportunity in the next few months. Another bad sign is Intel and AMD were down HUGE last couple days...uh, last I knew, Tech was LEADING the market?? New lows much higher than new highs on a daily basis. We are now below the mid-point of the 52 week range in the S&P.

My "best guess" scenario: Between now and the next FED meeting, we hit a low between 1400-1415. That is when everyone jumps back in, causing a short term rally to 1450-1460, then the FED does something "white knight-ish" and boosts the market further, eventually stalling 1480-1520.

DISCLAIMER: my prediction is unlikely to verify, use with caution and as always, consult your own financial advisor!

 

[kar_crazy]

Is that in MWC near Tinker?

no in norman off of 0ld 77 highway turns into flood st

 

[Corepuncher]

Not really sure about this but I'm going from 100G to 25 C, 25 I, 50 G.

While there is a chance the shorts could cover late in the day, there is also the chance we could sell off further. The latter is what I am hoping for.

 

[Corepuncher]

Not really sure about this but I'm going from 100G to 25 C, 25 I, 50 G.

While there is a chance the shorts could cover late in the day, there is also the chance we could sell off further. The latter is what I am hoping for.

I just signed up for the auto tracker and would like to start off 2008 on the right foot....I missed the "deadline" for the autotracker. Is there any way someone can put my info in for Friday? Who controls it? Thanks!

 

[hessian]

I just signed up for the auto tracker and would like to start off 2008 on the right foot....I missed the "deadline" for the autotracker. Is there any way someone can put my info in for Friday? Who controls it? Thanks!

What worked for me when I did this too late - was to post right then into the "comments line" , what I'd meant for COB that day. Later, the change was made, and I also got a PM that either "Ocen" or "EW_ret" can make these changes

Other option is, go here: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/private.php , > on the left, click to "send a new Message" (PM) > In "To" line, start typing, for example "Oce", and a list will come up with a bunch of contact persons names that closely match > all you have to do is select the one you want from the list.
- then just describe what happened, what you had intended/what change should be.
Good Luck here, and welcome!
VR

 

[Corepuncher]

Dissecting the market

I'll hit you all with a theory. Might not work out, but I'll give it a shot.

Assume that the reaction to the jobs number was an overreaction. Assume that people realize, "hey, this number stands a good shot at being revised upward".

Lop off Friday and what do we have...an S&P in the 1440's, and a pennant with apex somewhere around 1470ish. There appears to be a pretty good support/resistence level near 1435, give or take. Going back a few months if you squint you can see a pretty good trading "range of uncertainty" between 1440-1460.

50G 25C 25I as of this morning, thinking about increasing position.

The markets early rally has sold off this morning...this could result in an intermediate term bottom being put in today and a good bounce late today, which could persist into tomorrow, etc. We bounced just short of our recent 1406-1407 low.

I'm gonna guess the "initial claims" number is gonna come in lower than expected on Thursday. If it comes in higher than expected and ABOVE 350 K, I'm all out!

 

[Corepuncher]

No Transfer today

Well, in the space of 5 minutes, I went from wanting to go 100% in stocks, to 100% G, to making no change, and keeping my 50/50 ! LOL

I like the fact I bought in at Fridays low with 25C 25I. There is no way to predict these whipsaw days. I DO see a bit of a V bottom at around 10:30 Eastern time. 1400 held. I think if we break 1400 intraday any of the next few days, it'll end up being a pretty big down day and I'll then go 100% in. That is my plan this hour, anyhow!

 

[Corepuncher]

Eerily similar.....

Hey all, check out the intraday chart and compare it to a 6 month chart...amazing similar! Lets hope todays ending is a good omen for the larger market in the next couple months!

 

[Corepuncher]

Next couple weeks

I believe there is a good chance at a market rally in the next couple weeks, 1440-1450. There is an awful lot of economic data slated especially for next week. What are the chances it is ALL bad enough to keep the dark cloud over everyone's heads? How can it get much worse? The only bad data we had come in was durable goods and the jobs report....which I believe will be revised upward. Just look at the ADP report of 40,000 minus govt, plus, the previous fed report was revised up about 20,000! I'm gonna bet the newly revised number will be 40-50K. Now, that data won't come in until after the next FED meeting. Before that time, we have retail sales, inflation, housing numbers, and, perhaps a "fed to the rescue" move to boost short term spirits!

 

[Corepuncher]

 

[Corepuncher]

Oops, heres that graph that matches the other in my earlier post (I accidentally hard linked it and it changed).

 

[Corepuncher]

Transfer today

I'm getting out of this market. Too risky for me at this time. Hoping my 0.15% gain from yesterday and the I fund today helps keep me in the green (as would an up close today).

100 G

 

[Corepuncher]

This market is sick!!!

Since I was diversified in I, only managed to lose about .6% today, and boy am I glad I'm out! I know that many down days in a row and oversold seems like a good buying opportunity. But look at it this way....

1) Prior to todays close, we were down like 95 pts on SP and could not even rebound 1/10 of that???
2) We blew through our big support level of 1400. Extremely bearish and I'm looking for another really big down day this week. I think well see 1350 soon if we fail to get a substantial rebound soon.