coolhand's Account Talk

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coolhand said:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/02/is-consumer-confidence-contrarian.html
Click to expand...

From the link:

"Rather than being a contrarian play, I think consumers have reached the recognition phase, with a panic phase yet to follow. This possibility is something that economists might want to take into consideration if they would ever take off their rose colored glasses and view the real world for how it is.

It may be darkest before dawn, but the sun has barely set. The contrarian play is to bet against the masses who misunderstand history."


That's where my hesitation comes in, the day I decide to go all in, the rose colored glasses would come off :suspicious:
 
Citi seems to be offering a plausible explanation, doesn't it? Despite the catchy headline (the feds made us do it) ?
 
CH, what would make you get back in the market? Given that the SS is on a buy. A dip? Continued move up? A few days above a certian EMA?

Thanks, Ball'n
 
ballnoutacontrol said:
CH, what would make you get back in the market? Given that the SS is on a buy. A dip? Continued move up? A few days above a certian EMA?

Thanks, Ball'n
Click to expand...

The SS is on a buy, but the signals are close to their EMAs and BPCOMPQ is riding its upper bollinger band. The market can go either way here. So far NAMO and NYMO have been backing down in measured steps and appear as though they have some room to the upside should the market break in that direction. If sentiment is supportive and we get a dip I may be a buyer, but any serious selling pressure could flip the SS to a sell too, so I have to keep that in mind.

It's a tough read right now. We have had a decent rally off recent lows so unless one is a diehard bull the upside could be limited from here. In other words it may not be worth chasing what could be a one day rally given it's the first week of the month with only two IFTs in one's back pocket.

I think it's important that we don't get too caught up in the day-to-day market action and pick our spots very carefully. In a less volatile market I'd be much more inclined to ride the SS signals from buy to sell, but this market often doesn't give us any reaction time.

We may have a nice wall of worry to climb, but I'm one of those traders who thinks it really may be different this time. That said I'm going to error on the side of caution.
 
350zCommTech said:
Yet another article about the Pound or Euro collapsing. What does that make now? 5/6 articles this weekend? I smell a hugh short squeeze coming. i.e. big fall in the dollar. The question is when.
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I can't argue with that logic, but I wonder how long it can last?

On the flip side though, I don't think there's a lot of faith that the dollar can keep rallying either, which could burn a lot of bears if they keep turning it up. Something has to give.
 
350zCommTech said:
Yet another article about the Pound or Euro collapsing. What does that make now? 5/6 articles this weekend? I smell a hugh short squeeze coming. i.e. big fall in the dollar. The question is when.
Click to expand...

350, why do you say a fall in the dollar? Is it because the market is forward looking and they will be a quick rally followed by a sharp drop due to shorting the dollar after the climb?
Thanks for your insight.
Bryan
 
ExtremeWX said:
350, why do you say a fall in the dollar? Is it because the market is forward looking and they will be a quick rally followed by a sharp drop due to shorting the dollar after the climb?
Thanks for your insight.
Bryan
Click to expand...

Not from shorting the follar, but from too many shorts in the Euro and the Pound. When these shorts get squeezed, the Euro/Pound will rise and the dollar will fall. Also, when you have big names coming out and announcing what they have been doing and talking their book, I get a little suspicious.

On the TA side, the pound is oversold on the daily and getting close to oversold on the weekly. The Euro bouced last week and has worked off some oversold levels, and it's also getting close to oversold on the weekly(I'm not at home so I'm working from memory). So, on the TA side alone, one should have a good stop on Euro/pound shorts.

Don't get me wrong though, this could just be a correction in the dollar before it resumes it's up trend. It's all theory at this point.
 
I should also add that news is going to be a huge factor. Greece not getting a bailout would spike the dollar. Perhaps that is when Euro/Pound shorts start to cover.
 
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