coolhand's Account Talk

[Frixxxx]

Bulls retreated, which is probably why we're moving higher again.

Not a retreat, caught our breath for the long haul!:nuts:

 

[coolhand]

Not a retreat, caught our breath for the long haul!:nuts:

I stand corrected.

 

[Frixxxx]

I stand corrected.

Not really, but to really correct you I could go get someone to straighten you out....until you got your "fill".:laugh:

 

[Birchtree]

I really don't think "fill" knows anything about stocks. The left media bias doesn't discuss the capital markets so he's blind.

 

[Guest2]

I'd like to think my glass is "half filled" as opposed to "half emptied". :laugh:

 

[coolhand]

I'd like to think my glass is "half filled" as opposed to "half emptied". :laugh:

I'm not sure it's the glass that's "half filled". :laugh:

 

[WorkFE]

Full of what is the question:nuts:

 

[coolhand]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/33390517

 

[coolhand]

I'm not so sure the earnings estimates are going to be a "sell-the-news" event. Certainly not a sustained one. I continue to be of the mind that there is an upside breakout in progress.

http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...me=Investor&ArticleId=NS20091020085255PageOne

 

[fedgolfer]

I'm not so sure the earnings estimates are going to be a "sell-the-news" event. Certainly not a sustained one. I continue to be of the mind that there is an upside breakout in progress.

http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...me=Investor&ArticleId=NS20091020085255PageOne

I agree and will be watching closely. the fade on futures on the housing starts doesn't worry me... why would we want a glutony of surplus added now (coming into fall & winter) versus spread out? it's about earnings now, and I think the A-rods are just a part of the story... now its time for the small/mid caps and EFA to perform.

 

[airlift]

How deep a pullback is expected? Fedgolfer and Coolhand, would you wait to increase the allocation to the S fund? Reason is that the 1100 level in the SPX is showing significant resistance after a great run to the upside.

 

[coolhand]

How deep a pullback is expected? Fedgolfer and Coolhand, would you wait to increase the allocation to the S fund? Reason is that the 1100 level in the SPX is showing significant resistance after a great run to the upside.

Yes, SPX 1100 is showing resistance as we are at the upper end of the rising wedge. We are looking to open moderately down this morning, which isn't a surprise, but we need to see how much market internals (as measured by the SS) weaken. We could easily get a sell signal today with continued downward pressure, but as I've talked about over the past few days is it worth chasing a potential sell signal? That's where the internals need to be watched (I've already discussed this in my blog). I'm willing to pass on a sell signal to a point as I have no reason to believe (yet) that a hard correction is imminent. If you are holding some cash, you may want to wait for a sell signal to get triggered and then see how things play out.

 

[airlift]

Yes, SPX 1100 is showing resistance as we are at the upper end of the rising wedge. We are looking to open moderately down this morning, which isn't a surprise, but we need to see how much market internals (as measured by the SS) weaken. We could easily get a sell signal today with continued downward pressure, but as I've talked about over the past few days is it worth chasing a potential sell signal? That's where the internals need to be watched (I've already discussed this in my blog). I'm willing to pass on a sell signal to a point as I have no reason to believe (yet) that a hard correction is imminent. If you are holding some cash, you may want to wait for a sell signal to get triggered and then see how things play out.

Good advice, I have some cash, and will deploy it at some point. Thanks for keeping the analysis going. Good Luck!

 

[coolhand]

If this continues to track like it has, stand-by for more whipsaws in the next couple of weeks or so (we should track higher in spite of the them). Keep in mind, this is only a projection, but it's doing very well.

http://www.timingpointprojector.com/

 

[coolhand]

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/21/business/21volcker.html?_r=3&hp

 

[coolhand]

Post pulled off Trader's Talk:

In tonight's market roundup & in tomorrow's edition of their paper IBD changes the "market view" to "market uptrend under pressure" from "market in uptrend". Which means they have not called the uptrend over, but say it is in trouble and to not buy more now, be alert, and prepare to raise cash fast if conditions deteriorate much more. There are now 7 distribution days on the S&P500, 6 on the Dow Industrials, and 4 on Nasdaq. A lot of distribution days indicating quite a bit of institional selling, but as yet not that hard, a decisive knock out distribution day is what they like to see that knocks an uptrending market into a downtrend. That is especially so after as strong a bull run as this one. This bull champ will have to be knocked out, not counted out on points. So now nothing to do but wait and see what happens next.

 

[coolhand]

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/10/death-of-soul-of-capitalism.html

 

[coolhand]

http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

 

[coolhand]

Bearishness is mounting again as many indicators are rolling over. This is exactly what we need if we are to see a parabolic push higher before the curtain closes on the current bull market rally. The fat lady hasn't sung just yet, but she may be clearing her throat. We'll see.

 

[coolhand]

Here's another great post off Trader's Talk. Some of these guys know what they're talking about.

"When you put this bull down guy's you will have to deliver a knock out punch to do it. The shorts aren't going to do it with some pretty boy point count. As long as the bull is still standing he may always come back and tear your head off. Remember he has the resources of every central bank in the world backing his play."