coolhand's Account Talk

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turbo23dog said:
Read your blog tonight. SSSS.

I feel I'm close enough to the end of the month (and 2 new IFTs) to consider scaling back out of stocks into G or maybe some to F. I'll be waiting/hoping to get that hoped for bounce tomorrow.
Click to expand...

If we turn, it will probably be this week. And if we do and I get out, I'll be out of IFTs till Monday. It appears most of the top 25% are still holding. And while technical damage has been done, it's not ugly. I'm still waiting to get another read tomorrow morning, but I'm willing to take some risk here.
 
turbo23dog - I jumped to the G fund last week, and will stay out till Jan. My PIP is 31% this year and I will keep this gain. I will not be pulling my hair out during the holidays. Never have, never will.
 
stingrayiii said:
turbo23dog - I jumped to the G fund last week, and will stay out till Jan. My PIP is 31% this year and I will keep this gain. I will not be pulling my hair out during the holidays. Never have, never will.
Click to expand...

Yes. As I mentioned in my blog yesterday, scaling out would not be a bad plan right now, regardless if the market tags new highs. Good PIP. Congrats.
 
Thanks coolhand, it was more luck then anything. And being really aggressive switching between S fund and I fund. whew, what a interesting year. and I am fine losing gains for the rest of the year.
 
airlift said:
CH,

You have the ability to find interesting links. If the projection holds, we stand to make some hefty gains. I hope we can get some type of signal that lets us stay in the stock funds before we miss out and quit prematurely. Tough to gauge though!
Click to expand...

Tough indeed. Would be nice to see how accurate the TPP was earlier in the year. Birch and the TPP are about the only buffers between my hot finger and the Gject button.
 
We are now experiencing the last scary decline before the next up phase begins - be patient and wait for the bulls to take charge again. The bullish tonality is still prevalent. Check out the graph in my 6912 post and visualize the next run.
 
Birchtree,

If you are right we are going to recover the recent losses and increase our nest egg in a big way. You rightly pin-pointed that it is a scary decline!
 
Sentiment is pretty evenly split today on Trader's Talk, which typically means weakness in the very short term (intraday). The poll won't close for a couple more hours, but most traders have weighed in. I am still in "wait and see" mode. I have no inclination to sell just yet. Risk is high on both sides of the trade right now. I'm expecting some follow-through selling this morning and then an intraday rally with follow-through heading into the week. That's my call.

If we drop hard today with no evident dip buying, I'll reconsider.

Our top 25% are still very bullish:

14.15% cash and 82.57% stocks

The TPP I posted last night suggests we are near a bottom too.

I've said recently that riding this market higher was not going to be easy. We are seeing higher volatililty, which is often meant to shake out weak hands. Unfortunately, the SS has also been whipsawed by this kind of action, which limits its effectiveness. Sooner or later though, the sell signal will be valid in the longer term like it should be. I'm just not ready to call this bull run over quite yet.
 
News reports say several key indicators are due for release today.

"A couple of economic announcements later this morning could make for trading catalysts, though. The S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index for August is due at 9:00 AM ET and the Consumer Confidence Index for October is due at 10:00 AM ET. As for other announcements, results from an auction of 2-year Treasuries are due at 1:00 PM ET."
 
coolhand said:
Sentiment is pretty evenly split today on Trader's Talk, which typically means weakness in the very short term (intraday). The poll won't close for a couple more hours, but most traders have weighed in. I am still in "wait and see" mode. I have no inclination to sell just yet. Risk is high on both sides of the trade right now. I'm expecting some follow-through selling this morning and then an intraday rally with follow-through heading into the week. That's my call.

If we drop hard today with no evident dip buying, I'll reconsider.

Our top 25% are still very bullish:

14.15% cash and 82.57% stocks

The TPP I posted last night suggests we are near a bottom too.

I've said recently that riding this market higher was not going to be easy. We are seeing higher volatililty, which is often meant to shake out weak hands. Unfortunately, the SS has also been whipsawed by this kind of action, which limits its effectiveness. Sooner or later though, the sell signal will be valid in the longer term like it should be. I'm just not ready to call this bull run over quite yet.
Click to expand...

Coolhand,

I'm going to stay with your interpretation of the system because it makes sense. Although riding this market is risky and hard to play, the FED is not yet withdrawing the massive liquidity. Moreover, the TPP you posted last night suggests we are near a bottom too. Furthemore, Birchtree is with us. He has been right in this rally, and seasonality is around here somewhere. Futures were up, and the market is up. Having said this, I will be following your interpretation of the SS, even though it is a squeeze play. I still have 20% to deploy, and will see when to do so! Hope the ball doesn't burst! Thank you, and best wishes! :)

P.S.
Almost forgot to mention James' interpretation of the P&F Chart, which seems to be a corroborating and likely scenario. He said last night: "I'm thinking the chart shows 1050 or lower before reversal. Not sure it will make it down that far, but I am seeing that a likely possibility."
 
Last edited:
IBD basically said "consider taking profits if you have a gain and consider selling if you have a small loss". In other words, sell everything.

After today's close, the market is in a confirmed correction meaning wait until a new buy signal.
 
Bullitt said:
IBD basically said "consider taking profits if you have a gain and consider selling if you have a small loss". In other words, sell everything.

After today's close, the market is in a confirmed correction meaning wait until a new buy signal.
Click to expand...

Yep. Another domino has fallen as weakness takes hold.
 
coolhand said:
Sentiment is pretty evenly split today on Trader's Talk, which typically means weakness in the very short term (intraday). The poll won't close for a couple more hours, but most traders have weighed in. I am still in "wait and see" mode. I have no inclination to sell just yet. Risk is high on both sides of the trade right now. I'm expecting some follow-through selling this morning and then an intraday rally with follow-through heading into the week. That's my call.

If we drop hard today with no evident dip buying, I'll reconsider.

Our top 25% are still very bullish:

14.15% cash and 82.57% stocks

The TPP I posted last night suggests we are near a bottom too.

I've said recently that riding this market higher was not going to be easy. We are seeing higher volatililty, which is often meant to shake out weak hands. Unfortunately, the SS has also been whipsawed by this kind of action, which limits its effectiveness. Sooner or later though, the sell signal will be valid in the longer term like it should be. I'm just not ready to call this bull run over quite yet.
Click to expand...

Very interesting re: current positions of investors which are part of TT.

I will be jumping ship at COB today hoping to exit on a small daily gain. There was just to much good news last week which was overlooked in favor of the very limited bad news. The reluctness of the marker to move higher when there was justification to do so concerns me. Furthermore, I do not see any news coming on the horizon to shake sentiment.

With a current PIP of 12.18% and a personal exit floor of 10%, it was time to bail. One must live to fight another day.

Geaux
 
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