coolhand's Account Talk

[wahinepio]

Right now the trend is up. If you're worried about the collapse, the best insurance is to stockpile ammunition.

wahinepio, how did you ever find that site? That company is located in Finland.

Bullitt: we have internet in Hawaii, but what we DON'T have is ammo... heeeeelp *

 

[Scout333]

Thanks Cool! Your comments are a must read for me! One of the first things I look for on the TSP site!

 

[hotwings]

CH,

We appreciate you analysis and comments!

 

[coolhand]

The market gave us a mixed close today, but showed its resilience in the process as the averages erased much of early losses.

This evening, the CBOE is neutral. TRIN and TRINQ are leaning bullish. Breadth dipped, but remains bullish.

The signals suggest the market tries to move higher tomorrow. I remain bullish.

 

[FAAM]

Wow... so far today you are "spot on" man. Hope this upside carries the day, the week... tho I only have a modest amount of TSP skin in the equities game, every little bit helps.

 

[coolhand]

It was another win for the bulls today.




Both charts are sporting fresh highs.

This evening, the CBOE is bullish. TRIN is bullish, while TRINQ is neutral. Breadth is bullish.

The signals tell me to look for more upside. I remain bullish. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

 

[coolhand]

The market showed its resilience yet again today, as early losses were either reduced or erased by the close.




We can see that the S&P fell modestly in today's trade, but the DWCPF tacked on gains.



Breadth rose, which is a good sign for the bulls (given early weakness).

This evening, the CBOE is bullish. TRIN is neutral and TRINQ is bearish.

NAAIM was relatively unchanged and remains solidly bullish. They are not expecting any downside surprises (outside of normal selling activity).

The indicators remain bullish, which keeps me in the bull camp.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi Coolhand! Thank you for the great analysis and charts! I read your posts every day and your insights are invaluable.

I was looking back at some of your old posts (from a few years ago) and remembered how you used to mention how liquidity and institutional investors affected the market quite heavily. I never really could figure how to best gauge what the institutional investors are doing. You had mentioned stocktiming.com but link no longer works. Do you rely on breadth for this now and does it weigh much in your decisions to enter or exit market?

Thanks again and Best Wishes to you! :smile:

 

[coolhand]

I don't think it matters all that much regarding institutional investors. Not when the CB is printing on scale never before seen (liquidity). That significantly skews a lot of market data. Also, my trading perspective has evolved over the years I became more aware of how the game is really played. There are also online news sources that help give a much more accurate picture of what we might expect. It has become a matter of synthesizing this data to get a sense of reality. Breadth is a key indicator that helps us see how many boats are being lifted. NAAIM is another key indicator given they are smart money.

How this answers the mail. :smile:

Hi Coolhand! Thank you for the great analysis and charts! I read your posts every day and your insights are invaluable.

I was looking back at some of your old posts (from a few years ago) and remembered how you used to mention how liquidity and institutional investors affected the market quite heavily. I never really could figure how to best gauge what the institutional investors are doing. You had mentioned stocktiming.com but link no longer works. Do you rely on breadth for this now and does it weigh much in your decisions to enter or exit market?

Thanks again and Best Wishes to you! :smile:

 

[coolhand]

Last week, the market pulled back. The market has been fighting early weakness at the open of late, but so far the technical damage is nil.




The S&P fell almost 1.25% on the week, while the DWCPF only lost about 0.3%. The charts still look quite healthy.



Breadth dipped, but it remains bullish.

The CBOE closed bearish on Friday. That means selling pressure may bleed into Monday. TRIN and TRINQ were flat (neutral). NAAIM remains very bullish, so this weakness is not likely to last or do any serious technical damage.

Monday looks bearish, but I am looking for a turn back up at any time. I remain bullish.

 

[pmaloney]

Thank you Sir! :smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

HI Coolhand! Yes, that definitely answers my question. Thanks so much!! :smile:

I don't think it matters all that much regarding institutional investors. Not when the CB is printing on scale never before seen (liquidity). That significantly skews a lot of market data. Also, my trading perspective has evolved over the years I became more aware of how the game is really played. There are also online news sources that help give a much more accurate picture of what we might expect. It has become a matter of synthesizing this data to get a sense of reality. Breadth is a key indicator that helps us see how many boats are being lifted. NAAIM is another key indicator given they are smart money.

How this answers the mail. :smile:

 

[coolhand]

Today's sell-off feels like a switch may have been pulled. There are certainly reasons for the market to nose dive, but NAAIM did not forecast that last week. Not only were they pretty bulled up, but there wasn't any real shorting among them (of significance). It is too soon to say how this plays out, but I would not get too comfortable with the bullish case. I think we should always be ready in case "it's different this time". The Virus is wreaking havoc in many ways. It may be the catalyst that drives the market lower (when they are ready). And it's possible they are ready. I'm not bearish yet, but I'm not complacent either.

 

[coolhand]

I've been away from my computer the past couple of days due to a family emergency, which has not been resolved, so I may be called away again should circumstances change. I thought I could use my laptop at the hotel I was at, which I normally don't have an issue with, but the wi-fi was very weak and I could not load pages.

If I could have posted the past 2 days, I would have told you to expect more downside. In fact, the market may continue to be volatile for another month or so. I can't predict that, but that's the sense I get from sources I follow.




Obviously, the charts have gotten ugly pretty quick. It appears the NAAIM smart money got caught in it too.

This evening, the CBOE has not posted. They have been bearish all week so far.

TRIN is bearish for tomorrow, while TRINQ is neutral.



Breadth is as ugly as I've seen it in a long time.

I am shifting to a bearish stance for now (we'll take it a week at a time), but I remain bullish longer term (over a month). I am pretty certain the market recovers at some point, but it may not be a fun ride (up and down) if you remain long. I really doubt the powers that be will let things collapse, but someone wants weakness right now.

NAAIM reports tomorrow.

 

[tsptalk]

I've been away from my computer the past couple of days due to a family emergency, which has not been resolved, so I may be called away again should circumstances change.

Hey cool. Sorry to hear about the family emergency. I hope it's nothing serious, but emergency says it all.

I thought I could use my laptop at the hotel I was at, which I normally don't have an issue with, but the wi-fi was very weak and I could not load pages.

I use my own internet connection when on the road, and for some reason hotel rooms get the worst reception. I can't stand working under those conditions. I had to go down to the hotel lobby at 6:30 AM to get work done yesterday. :aargh4:

 

[albacore5]

Thank you for the update! Always appreciate reading your analysis

 

[coolhand]

Hey cool. Sorry to hear about the family emergency. I hope it's nothing serious, but emergency says it all.



I use my own internet connection when on the road, and for some reason hotel rooms get the worst reception. I can't stand working under those conditions. I had to go down to the hotel lobby at 6:30 AM to get work done yesterday. :aargh4:

Thanks Tom. It's my Father. We expect him to get through his issues, but his age makes things at least somewhat uncertain.

I had my own hot-spot for several years, but I turned it off a few months ago because I don't generally travel anymore.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi CH, Sorry to hear about your dad having issues. Will say a prayer for him for a speedy recovery. Best wishes to you and your family.

 

[wahinepio]

Isaiah 46:4 And I will still be carrying you when you are old. Your hair will turn gray, and I will still carry you. I made you, and I will carry you to safety.

May the good Lord be with your father and bestow strength upon his son.

 

[Scout333]

Cool hope things go well with your father! Will add him to our prayer list!
Scout