coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

How quickly things change. The bulls pulled victory out of the jaws of defeat so-to-speak.



We can see that the price on the S&P hit a fresh all-time intra-day high today, but closed below its peak when in the final half hour of trading some nervous traders likely trimmed their risk until they could reassess the situation. X22 has very good commentary on what happened the past 24 hours by-the-way.

This evening, the CBOE is leaning bullish. TRIN and TRINQ are leaning bearish. Breadth hit a fresh high in its seemingly relentless drive higher.

I think today's action showed us once more who is in control of this market. Or at least what direction is the most likely path. It is still up!

I am more bullish now than I was before, but would not be surprised with some volatility in the near term until those with jitters fully settle down.

 

[uscfanhawaii]

And yet....how much do things stay the same?!

It is still VERY early in 2020, but I find it interesting that buy-n-holders still command the top of the AutoTracker!
#1: C Fund buy-n-holders
#2: C/S mix buy-n-holders
#3: S Fund buy-n-holders

No prediction here....but buy-n-holders can’t seem to do anything wrong. :blink:

 

[coolhand]

And yet....how much do things stay the same?!

It is still VERY early in 2020, but I find it interesting that buy-n-holders still command the top of the AutoTracker!
#1: C Fund buy-n-holders
#2: C/S mix buy-n-holders
#3: S Fund buy-n-holders

No prediction here....but buy-n-holders can’t seem to do anything wrong. :blink:

On occasion, I have indicated in past posts that the game has changed. Control over the markets has shifted. That shift has the potential and even the likelihood to negatively impact traders. Past success with older trading methods and models may result in sub par performance. That is why I have stopped using some of my signals in a contrarian fashion. I could see the expected results of using signals in this manner were no longer working as they once did.

My explanation is general in nature. There will still be some who achieve relative success using older trading models. But overall, I suspect that most will find it more challenging.

The foundation of the markets is also extremely complex. Most of the trading activity is now done by computers using complex algorithms. Warehouses of them. Many are clustered near New York City in New Jersey. The human element in trading has been significantly reduced. I don't understand the full impact of this, but I do think it alters the playing field even more than it once did.

I have also noted for some time now that NAAIM has been largely bullish for quite some time. They are not shifting between a bearish and bullish stance as much as they once did. That is telling.

 

[coolhand]

The beat continues, or should I say the beat down (for the bears). There aren't as many of them as there used to be. Most surveys I follow are darn bullish.

New highs were hit on the charts today. And I see no technical or sentiment reason for that to change under the dynamics currently in play.

The CBOE has not posted yet. NAAIM came in more bullish. The bears are mostly gone in that survey. This remains one of our primary cues to stay the course in stocks.

Breadth hit another high and remains another solid data point for the bulls.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Price pulled back on Friday, but the bulls ended the week with decent gains for the both the S&P and the DWCPF.

For Monday, the CBOE is neutral. TRIN and TRINQ are neutral. Cumulative breadth remains bullish. The money printing continues...bullish.

Sentiment shows that NAAIM and TSP Talk are both heavily bulled up.

I remain bullish.

 

[Philskins]

Good morning,

Have enjoyed reading your posts for some time now, appreciate the information. I have a question that seems to have fallen off the radar: With regard to the S fund, what is the prospect of pulling back to the open gap at 1370 in the DWCPF? It occurred Oct 12 last year. Seems like a great reentry point but when do we drop down that low again?! Thanks!!

 

[coolhand]

Good morning,

Have enjoyed reading your posts for some time now, appreciate the information. I have a question that seems to have fallen off the radar: With regard to the S fund, what is the prospect of pulling back to the open gap at 1370 in the DWCPF? It occurred Oct 12 last year. Seems like a great reentry point but when do we drop down that low again?! Thanks!!

Welcome to my thread!

Because this market is so manipulated, and right now it's to the upside (massive money printing, but there are other reasons) I don't know that this gap will be filled in historical fashion. I say this because there is a major war raging for control of the financial structure. There are those that want to plunge the markets by 50% or more, while the other side is trying to keep it afloat (for now) for future purposes (I'm thinking within 24 months or so). There is no telling exactly how this plays out. I have no doubt there is some fluidity involved as the battle moves back and forth. Most don't see this battle, which is why I point to the X22 Report to get a sense of what is really happening.

Now, it's possible the gap gets filled and the market move higher again, but I would not be comfortable holding that scenario. I just don't think it is business as usual anymore. It is now about survival. The money printing that is currently in progress started a few months ago to prop up the big banks as they are already insolvent. It is do or die for the CB and they know it. In my calculated opinion I don't think they survive.

I stopped trading the markets over 2 years once I really began to see what was happening.

I continue to provide commentary here for those who are looking for seasoned perspective, but I've whittled my technical indicators to a shadow of what I once tracked for reasons already stated.

 

[coolhand]

Here is another angle of the financial battle that is taking place.



We can see that silver really took off from early June to early September and then it hit a wall and was turned back. I find it interesting that the peak came about the time that the massive money printing began. That was not coincidence. Some of the banks have massive silver shorts in play. If silver goes too high, they can lose billions. Obviously, they can't have that happen (only little fish get taken to the cleaners), so more paper was used to slam price lower. This manipulation is nothing new, but the challenge to the CB's wholesale control of price across all financial markets is new. They have lost control. Panic is setting in.

I believe that precious metal is almost certain to reward those who hold it as this battle continues. Not paper contracts, but physical metal itself.

 

[coolhand]

The train just keeps on rolling.




Both charts show price hitting fresh highs. There is no resistance overhead.



Cumulative breadth also hit a fresh high. This chart has been neutral to bullish about 95% of time for several months.

TRIN and TRINQ are neutral.

I would not step in front of this market. Aside from some relatively modest to moderate pullbacks since October, this thing looks to be on a mission. It is possible that 2020 is a big year for longs. Yes, risk has not gone away, but I'm not betting against the printing presses (not to mention NAAIM and Breadth).

 

[pmaloney]

Thanks again CH!
Great game tonight. GO TIGERS! :smile:

 

[wahinepio]

Welcome to my thread!

Because this market is so manipulated, and right now it's to the upside (massive money printing, but there are other reasons) I don't know that this gap will be filled in historical fashion. I say this because there is a major war raging for control of the financial structure. There are those that want to plunge the markets by 50% or more, while the other side is trying to keep it afloat (for now) for future purposes (I'm thinking within 24 months or so). There is no telling exactly how this plays out. I have no doubt there is some fluidity involved as the battle moves back and forth. Most don't see this battle, which is why I point to the X22 Report to get a sense of what is really happening.

Now, it's possible the gap gets filled and the market move higher again, but I would not be comfortable holding that scenario. I just don't think it is business as usual anymore. It is now about survival. The money printing that is currently in progress started a few months ago to prop up the big banks as they are already insolvent. It is do or die for the CB and they know it. In my calculated opinion I don't think they survive.

I stopped trading the markets over 2 years once I really began to see what was happening.

I continue to provide commentary here for those who are looking for seasoned perspective, but I've whittled my technical indicators to a shadow of what I once tracked for reasons already stated.

thanks for the continued commentary, unique recommendations, and a few good laughs as i grab my popcorn on your drivebys.

 

[tsptalk]

Thanks again CH!
Great game tonight. GO TIGERS! :smile:

Yes, the Tigers were the best team tonight.

 

[coolhand]

It was a mixed day in terms of closing price. The S&P pulled back modestly, while the DWCPF rose moderately. It doesn't mean anything beyond that.

The CBOE is leaning bullish this evening. TRIN and TRINQ are neutral once more. In fact, they have been largely neutral for weeks. Not much volatility during that time.

Breadth rose and remains very bullish.

I remain bullish.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I love reading your words, "I remain bullish." especially after I just entered the market!!!!! It is uplifting.... especially when queasy about an entry. I sincerely appreciate your analysis and when its positive I realllly love it! Thank you Coolhand! :smile:

 

[coolhand]

I love reading your words, "I remain bullish." especially after I just entered the market!!!!! It is uplifting.... especially when queasy about an entry. I sincerely appreciate your analysis and when its positive I realllly love it! Thank you Coolhand! :smile:

YW. :smile:

 

[coolhand]

The melt up continued today as both the S&P and the DWCPF closed with modest to moderate gains.

TRIN and TRINQ remain neutral. I just don't get many actionable signals from these 2 signals like I once did.

Cumulative breadth moved higher and remains bullish.

NAAIM reports tomorrow.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Boom! The market made a pretty decent move to the upside today. There is no resistance to oppose it. Money is flowing.



Look at cumulative breadth. It was already pretty bullish, but the signal is lifting off well above the 21 and 39 EMA's. Bigger gains ahead?

Ask NAAIM. They remain solidly bullish with few bears among them. Follow the smart money. :smile:

The CBOE is also bullish. TRIN and TRINQ are neutral.

How can I be anything but bullish? It seems a slam dunk.

 

[coolhand]

The C and S funds posted a big weekly gains last week.

The charts of the S&P and DWCPF remain solidly bullish with no overhead resistance.

For Monday, the CBOE is bullish. TRINQ is bullish, while TRIN is neutral. Cumulative breadth remains on an upward tack and remains highly bullish.

Sentiment for NAAIM and TSP Talk are both bullish.

Nothing has changed. The indicators remain bullish and therefore I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The market looks to be consolidating gains again as price moves up and down over the course of the trading day.

The charts remain solidly bullish. This evening, the CBOE is bearish. TRIN and TRINQ are dead neutral. Cumulative breadth dipped, but remains firmly bullish.

We may see more weakness in the short term, though it isn't likely to be serious. I suspect the market will complete its consolidation and resume its upward bias within days.

 

[coolhand]

The market gave us more of the same today. Choppy up/down action that went nowhere today. I see it as a bullish sign that consolidation is in progress, which is highly likely to resolve to the upside (yes, that's the trend too).

The CBOE is neutral now. TRIN and TRINQ are also neutral. Cumulative breadth ticked up a tad and remains very bullish. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

I remain bullish.