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coolhand's Account Talk
- Thread starter coolhand
- Start date
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
Hi Coolhand, It probably has been tough holding 2 jobs. Great to hear you will be posting again. Have missed you!
coolhand
Well-known member
Yogi Berra once said, if you reach a fork in the road, take it.
Is this market nuts, or what? I'm sitting in TZA (bought at 17.89) looking for another pop to the downside in equities. Market looking shaky into the close so far. Not so sure traders are going to want to hold long over the weekend with the healthcare vote on tap and expected to fail.
coolhand
Well-known member
Monday's moderate decline was contained as expected, though I was leaning toward a positive close on the day given the bullish OEX P/C. Now that the market has pulled back a bit from last week's rally, it's probably not far from moving back to the upside. However, upside resistance is still in place. Seasonality does favor the bulls into the tax deadline. I note that AGG hit a fresh multi-month high today (F fund equivalent). What I don't know yet, is how the options are positioned for Tuesday as that data won't be stable until later this evening.
I'm thinking dips should be bought right now. Resistance is likely to fail.
I'm thinking dips should be bought right now. Resistance is likely to fail.
coolhand
Well-known member
After scanning the charts this evening, I see nothing that grabs my attention. Of course, the market action has been a bit dull. Still no indication of a breakout or breakdown, just more chop. The OEX P/C is bullish for Wednesday, as they have been the past 3 trading days. That is generally positive for the next few days (it's smart money). Still not taking any out-sized chances on TSP with my current 50/50 split between the stock funds and the G fund. Seasonality is generally positive. Some stock exposure is warranted. Buy dips.
coolhand
Well-known member
Buying a dip isn't too easy when the market reverses like it did today. The Fed Minutes would appear to be the excuse for the late weakness.
We can see that price on the S&P 500 tried to break to the upside of that falling line of resistance, but failed. It did manage to stay above its 50 dma, but that may yet get tested along with that rising support line. All in all, it's more sideways movement with an intermediate term bias to the downside. The DWCPF looks similar, but price on that chart closed below its 50 dma. Small caps were particularly weak, which is not bullish.
The Bank Index continues to look "iffy", but horizontal support is still intact. Price has been trading under the 50 dma for about 2 weeks now, however. DB and GS have also been weak. At face value, it is certainly not bullish for the market.
The OEX P/C is neutral for Thursday.
So, both support and resistance areas remain obstacles to price, but there is a somewhat modest downward bias in the intermediate to longer term. Let's see what Thursday brings. NAAIM will be reporting.
We can see that price on the S&P 500 tried to break to the upside of that falling line of resistance, but failed. It did manage to stay above its 50 dma, but that may yet get tested along with that rising support line. All in all, it's more sideways movement with an intermediate term bias to the downside. The DWCPF looks similar, but price on that chart closed below its 50 dma. Small caps were particularly weak, which is not bullish.
The Bank Index continues to look "iffy", but horizontal support is still intact. Price has been trading under the 50 dma for about 2 weeks now, however. DB and GS have also been weak. At face value, it is certainly not bullish for the market.
The OEX P/C is neutral for Thursday.
So, both support and resistance areas remain obstacles to price, but there is a somewhat modest downward bias in the intermediate to longer term. Let's see what Thursday brings. NAAIM will be reporting.
coolhand
Well-known member
The market bounced a bit on Thursday, which simply means that there remains a floor under this market. But no breakout yet. Resistance is still in play on the S&P 500 and DWCPF. NAAIM sentiment came in relatively unchanged, which makes it neutral. One of my more important indicators, cumulative breadth, remains in a confirmed uptrend with liquidity at a moderately high level. I am anticipating an upside breakout before the end of next week, but for now the S&P 500 and DWCPF charts are confined between support and resistance.
coolhand
Well-known member
More sideways action today that managed to resolve higher on the day. The OEX P/C was bullish, but the gains were mediocre. Now, the OEX P/C is bearish as we head into Tuesday. There isn't much else to add in this up and down market. I am hoping for an upside breakout this week given bullish seasonality, but rallies are being sold. The good news is that support has been holding. Of course, resistance is holding too. Cumulative breadth and liquidity remain bullish and that should keep a floor under the market.
coolhand
Well-known member
So, yesterday I said that the OEX P/C was bearish and that had me looking for weakness on Tuesday, which we got plenty of. But it was a mixed close as small caps outperformed, which is a bullish sign. Those in the S and I funds logged gains, which the C fund took a somewhat modest loss. Bonds rallied, and AGG, which is similar to our F fund, tagged its 200 dma before closing under it. It is in an uptrend.
We can see that the S&P 500 probed lower and broke both its 50 dma and rising trend line support to the downside, but that long tail on the candlestick shows that dip buyers are quite active as they pushed it back up to close above both key levels. Still, price is going nowhere and a flat RSI and MACD confirm it.
The DWCPF closed above its modestly rising 50 dma, but closed right at falling resistance, which is also a potential lower low, though that remains to be seen.
The Bank Index was weak again and price broke that support area once more, but rallied back to the 90 area. It sure looks like someone wants to prevent a more serious decline in the banking sector. That makes sense as a deteriorating banking sector would be a bearish sign for the overall market. It's struggling now as it is.
The options smart money is neutral heading into Wednesday, but the dumb money is bearish and that's bullish. TRINQ closed at a high level and that's bullish too; at least for the Nasdaq.
Given the tenuous geopolitical events now in play, the upside may continue to be limited, but with cumulative breadth still very bullish along with liquidity levels, the downside should remain contained too. Something has to give eventually. I remain a bull, but not a complacent one.
We can see that the S&P 500 probed lower and broke both its 50 dma and rising trend line support to the downside, but that long tail on the candlestick shows that dip buyers are quite active as they pushed it back up to close above both key levels. Still, price is going nowhere and a flat RSI and MACD confirm it.
The DWCPF closed above its modestly rising 50 dma, but closed right at falling resistance, which is also a potential lower low, though that remains to be seen.
The Bank Index was weak again and price broke that support area once more, but rallied back to the 90 area. It sure looks like someone wants to prevent a more serious decline in the banking sector. That makes sense as a deteriorating banking sector would be a bearish sign for the overall market. It's struggling now as it is.
The options smart money is neutral heading into Wednesday, but the dumb money is bearish and that's bullish. TRINQ closed at a high level and that's bullish too; at least for the Nasdaq.
Given the tenuous geopolitical events now in play, the upside may continue to be limited, but with cumulative breadth still very bullish along with liquidity levels, the downside should remain contained too. Something has to give eventually. I remain a bull, but not a complacent one.
coolhand
Well-known member
I'm not surprised by the selling on Wednesday, but it sure seemed a bit overdone. This is supposed to be a seasonally positive week, but this market continues to track sideways, and that's frustrating for bulls and bears alike.
Price on the S&P 500 closed under its 50 dma and tagged that rising trend line as well. It's not an ugly picture by any means, but strength and momentum both turned lower. It's possible that the index continues to track sideways for now and not break one way or the other, but I'm concerned about downside follow through from here.
The DWCPF hit a lower high after all on Tuesday and price is now back under its 50 dma.
The banking sector continued knocking on that support area on Wednesday and price has officially hit a fresh closing low too. I really doubt that traders will ignore a significant breakdown from here. The 50 dma is just now starting to turn down a tad.
At the beginning of the week, NAAIM was neutral, showing both bullish and bearish participation in the market. The up and down nature of this market is consistent with their neutral stance. The options money is neutral heading into Thursday. Cumulative breadth did turn down some today, but it's well away from a negative condition and my intermediate term systems remains positive.
I am a bit nervous now as see no real bearishness out there as this market continues its sideways dance. With strength and momentum turning down on the S&P 500, we may very well get some downside follow through on Thursday. That support line may get broken on that index too, though if it does it may be a bearish head fake.
I am not sure what to expect at this point as it can still go either way, but the lack of upside as we wind down tax season is disappointing to say the least. The banks may be key from here. They can't afford to plunge without likely taking the market with it. That doesn't mean it has to get ugly if it does drop, but it needs to be watched. Hopefully, my nervousness is a sign that a bottom is near.
Price on the S&P 500 closed under its 50 dma and tagged that rising trend line as well. It's not an ugly picture by any means, but strength and momentum both turned lower. It's possible that the index continues to track sideways for now and not break one way or the other, but I'm concerned about downside follow through from here.
The DWCPF hit a lower high after all on Tuesday and price is now back under its 50 dma.
The banking sector continued knocking on that support area on Wednesday and price has officially hit a fresh closing low too. I really doubt that traders will ignore a significant breakdown from here. The 50 dma is just now starting to turn down a tad.
At the beginning of the week, NAAIM was neutral, showing both bullish and bearish participation in the market. The up and down nature of this market is consistent with their neutral stance. The options money is neutral heading into Thursday. Cumulative breadth did turn down some today, but it's well away from a negative condition and my intermediate term systems remains positive.
I am a bit nervous now as see no real bearishness out there as this market continues its sideways dance. With strength and momentum turning down on the S&P 500, we may very well get some downside follow through on Thursday. That support line may get broken on that index too, though if it does it may be a bearish head fake.
I am not sure what to expect at this point as it can still go either way, but the lack of upside as we wind down tax season is disappointing to say the least. The banks may be key from here. They can't afford to plunge without likely taking the market with it. That doesn't mean it has to get ugly if it does drop, but it needs to be watched. Hopefully, my nervousness is a sign that a bottom is near.
coolhand
Well-known member
As I feared yesterday, the market got some downside follow through on Thursday and it did some technical damage.
Long term support was decisively broken on the S&P 500. Horizontal support at the March low is now being tested. Strength and momentum continued to plunge.
The DWCPF fared a bit better than the S&P in that price is not yet testing its March low, but the lower highs are not a good thing and neither is the degree of time this index is spending below its 50 dma. Still, it's not ugly...yet. The reality is that price is still in the center area of its trading range since December. It could still turn back up and run to fresh highs.
BKX broke an important support line and this will not go unnoticed by traders. RSI is now oversold.
The weekly NAAIM sentiment survey showed these money managers getting more bullish on this action. While that can be bearish in the short term, I don't like to fade these guys. They tend to know what they are doing and often have inside information that we don't have.
The options smart money is neutral to close out the week, but the dumb money is very bearish for Monday (Friday the market is closed). Historically, this is bullish for the market, but I have noticed that the dumb money has often gotten it right for some time now.
My intermediate term system is very close to going negative now and breadth, while still technically positive, is under attack. Liquidity levels are falling too, but are still well into expansion.
It may be that many market participants did not want to be long over the long holiday given the tensions in NK and Syria, but the market also likes to use emotional events to its own benefit, so a bottom could come quickly. Again, note the increased bullishness from NAAIM and the lack of bearishness from the options smart money.
It will be interesting to see how futures look Monday morning.
Long term support was decisively broken on the S&P 500. Horizontal support at the March low is now being tested. Strength and momentum continued to plunge.
The DWCPF fared a bit better than the S&P in that price is not yet testing its March low, but the lower highs are not a good thing and neither is the degree of time this index is spending below its 50 dma. Still, it's not ugly...yet. The reality is that price is still in the center area of its trading range since December. It could still turn back up and run to fresh highs.
BKX broke an important support line and this will not go unnoticed by traders. RSI is now oversold.
The weekly NAAIM sentiment survey showed these money managers getting more bullish on this action. While that can be bearish in the short term, I don't like to fade these guys. They tend to know what they are doing and often have inside information that we don't have.
The options smart money is neutral to close out the week, but the dumb money is very bearish for Monday (Friday the market is closed). Historically, this is bullish for the market, but I have noticed that the dumb money has often gotten it right for some time now.
My intermediate term system is very close to going negative now and breadth, while still technically positive, is under attack. Liquidity levels are falling too, but are still well into expansion.
It may be that many market participants did not want to be long over the long holiday given the tensions in NK and Syria, but the market also likes to use emotional events to its own benefit, so a bottom could come quickly. Again, note the increased bullishness from NAAIM and the lack of bearishness from the options smart money.
It will be interesting to see how futures look Monday morning.
coolhand
Well-known member
Happy Easter to you too, and the rest of the TSPTalk family! :smile:
Robo5555
Member
That's what I was thinking "S". I decided to split to CSI all even % last week from 100% S since last October.
coolhand
Well-known member
Yes, 70% S. I'm on the road this week, so not near the computer much. Just checked in to my hotel.
The markets are up moderately so far. I'm thinking a bottom may be in for now.
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