coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

Sometimes fear is justified. But that's okay, we know you just love the feel of those dice in your hands.

That's just the kind of feelings you need to make money in risk assets - you should never feel good when investing.

 

[coolhand]

Draw your own conclusions...it's a tid-bit of info out there on the web.

Harvard University fund sells all Israel holdings

http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/docview.asp?did=1000581912

 

[Birchtree]

I believe Harvard also sold their real estate portfolio to the Chinese.

 

[coolhand]

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100816_dispatch_chinas_gdp_belies_weak_economic_fundamentals

 

[JTH]

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100816_dispatch_chinas_gdp_belies_weak_economic_fundamentals

That's a good video, simple but it gets the point across.

 

[amoeba]

CH - saw your blog entry on stock vol; but OTOH bond (e.g. AGG) volume has been healthy and then some recently. The +.39% today for the F-fund is big.

I still have one dice roll left this month. Soon - maybe.

 

[coolhand]

What about TLT? Coupled with everything else, this should get ones attention.

View attachment 9865

CH - saw your blog entry on stock vol; but OTOH bond (e.g. AGG) volume has been healthy and then some recently. The +.39% today for the F-fund is big.

I still have one dice roll left this month. Soon - maybe.

 

[crws]

That's pretty cynical.

True, it is.
The doomsday train is getting too long to make it up the hill.
What do you think of that assessment? :laugh:

http://www.slate.com/id/2262320?obref=obinsite
Don't Panic About the Economy
The new GDP numbers aren't as bad as the doomsayers insist.
By Daniel GrossPosted Friday, July 30, 2010, at 5:14 PM ET

The GDP report for the second quarter has prompted much concern about the tepid 2.4 percent growth rate, but there are three other aspects of the report worth noting.

First, the bifurcated economy lives. The theme for the past year of recovery has been: a tale of two economies. Businesses that are connected to trade, to the global economy, and to business services are comparatively strong. The more global and less dependent on the United States you are, the better. We've seen excellent earnings from railroads, delivery companies, coal mining, and even automakers. But businesses and industries that are tethered exclusively to U.S. consumers, like the grocery chain Supervalu or housing, remain weak. This dichotomy is evident in the report. Personal consumption was flaccid. "Real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.6 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in the first." But business investment soared, and picked up steam from the strong first quarter. "Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 17.0 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 7.8 percent in the first," the Commerce Department reported. Investments in equipment and software rose nearly 22 percent in the second quarter, after a 20.4 percent gain in the first quarter.

 

[crws]

Good info, it would seem... many reports.
http://www.crestmontresearch.com/content/market.htm
Stock Market
The general direction of our stock market research has concentrated on perspectives of the market over the past century. The research relates to the secular bull and bear cycles, their patterns of returns and volatility, and the relationships between the market and the economy. Please peruse the charts and analyses listed below; we welcome your insights and challenges as catalysts for furthering our research. The terms of use for all materials are detailed below.

Crestmont Research, a wholly-owned affiliate of Crestmont Holdings, LLC., develops provocative insights on the financial markets and on the hedge fund industry. Crestmont Holdings and its affiliates provide financial market education services and manage a fund of hedge funds portfolio. Crestmont’s investment approach with its hedge fund portfolio concentrates on niche mid-sized, long-biased equity long/short hedge funds located primarily in the State of Texas. The financial market education services can be developed for online, on-demand, or in-person delivery.

 

[crws]

...a little ps here and there..
From 2006- how true was it?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/15371-the-stock-market-s-election-cycle

The Stock Market's Election Cycle
(clip)You can see that the market runs into a wall in the year after an election, and stays flat through most of the mid-term election year. The theory is that the incumbent president tries to make the economy look great for Election Day, and everything goes to hell shortly afterward. This data was based on the market’s total return (dividends included) from 1926 through 2005.

The data I had was monthly, and I wanted to see if I could narrow it some. I looked at all the daily closings for the Dow Jones from the start of 1929 through this past Tuesday. That’s roughly 19-1/3 election cycles. This is slightly different because it’s just one index and dividends aren’t included, but I do have the benefit of zeroing in on a specific day.

This is the average Dow election cycle looks like:

You can certainly see a similar pattern here. The market hits its low on September 30 of the mid-term year (not too far away!) and peaks on August 3 of the post-election year. In that 14-month period, the market declines an average of 9.4%. The market is up 46.8% over the other 34 months.

What I really found surprising is that the bullish period is very heavily concentrated within the first 12 months.

From September 30 of the mid-term to September 13 of the pre-election year, the Dow is up an average of 31.6%. To put that in perspective, the Dow averages a gain of 33.1% over the entire four-year period. So every four years, 95% of the market’s capital gains is squeezed into a one-year period.

 

[coolhand]

Mortgage Bonds Slumping Amid Concern of `Mega-Refi' Wave: Credit Markets

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...concern-of-mega-refi-wave-credit-markets.html

 

[coolhand]

China's Economic Growth Is Just A Sprint Toward Breakdown

http://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-economic-growth-is-just-a-sprint-toward-breakdown-2010-8

 

[coolhand]

Dissecting The Flashing Red Warning Light Of Record Stock Correlations

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/dissecting-flashing-red-warning-light-record-stock-correlations

 

[Birchtree]

After reading that article I came away with a new term - douche nozzle. I should be able to use it at some point. Thanks for the good read though.

 

[coolhand]

Remember, this is a volatile market and the current counter-trend rally may not hold or be substantial. I will reiterate my message yesterday that we might be in another whipsaw trading environment. As long as that's the case I will not act on a SS buy signal should one manifest in the next couple of days. I think it will take a bit more buying pressure than we're seeing now to push BPCOMPQ back up again to a buy, but I am mostly concerned about false signals at the moment. The trend has turned down and that needs to be respected.

 

[coolhand]

It's going to be a little while yet before I finish compiling the SS data I'm working on, but looking at the data I've already assembled I can see where buy and sell signals could be grouped in very short time frames. This is not a trading environment we want to be in for TSP unless you are a very short term trader. It's too easy to get caught in the volatility. I see an opportunity to sell into a rally today, because I don't think it will hold into next week, if that. Hopefully it holds for those of you seeking safe harbor.

If you're a bull, ignore this post.

 

[crws]

It's going to be a little while yet before I finish compiling the SS data I'm working on, but looking at the data I've already assembled I can see where buy and sell signals could be grouped in very short time frames. This is not a trading environment we want to be in for TSP unless you are a very short term trader. It's too easy to get caught in the volatility. I see an opportunity to sell into a rally today, because I don't think it will hold into next week, if that. Hopefully it holds for those of you seeking safe harbor.

If you're a bull, ignore this post.

uh-oh, invitation to dump
Sept 30, keep that date in mind....

 

[coolhand]

Taylor: Israel is going to attack Iran

http://www.carrollstandard.com/inde...ck-iran&catid=109:candidate-voices&Itemid=181

 

[coolhand]

Warning, bear market 2010: 11 'sells.' Only 6 'buys'

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-going-to-get-worse-a-whole-lot-worse-2010-08-17

 

[Birchtree]

If Iran is attacked we might get a 1,000 point rally. If Hamas attacks Israel from Lebanon we could help out there with our Navy - we still owe them a little vengence because of the Marine barracks bombing.