coolhand's Account Talk

[Tsunami]

I think most of you know that IYB (Don) on Trader's Talk is the developer of the Seven Sentinels trading system. He has a post this evening that I wanted to share.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=121607

After I listened to Laundry's Sunday post this morning http://www.ttheory.com/ I calculated out the end date for his "conservative T" on today's chart http://ttheory.typepad.com/files/srtvo20100709pdf.pdf and I get 8/17, not 8/6 as Don has. The left end of the T is at 4/23 where the AD line peaked (looks like Don has that right), then the centerpost is halfway between the AD lows on 6/7 and 7/6, which is June 21st. So with the left end at 5/3, and the centerpost at 6/21, use the far left Julian (?) date column to calculate that that is 40 days...then just count 40 trading days out from 6/21 to the end of the T, and that would be 11435 on the date column, which I think is 8/17 if I counted right. So if correct, the potential is there for this rally to last until mid-August, close to Laundry's other much larger T with an ending date of 8/26. I'm not convinced it will work out like that though. The market is on thin ice here and could keel over again as soon as 7/19 I think. A lot could depend on BP's success or failure in the gulf. A break above the 200dma and I'll believe the mid-August projection for a top, which is what I was expecting way back in January anyway (based not just on Laundry's stuff, but also Tim Wood).

Here's Laundry's latest data file, the last column is what's used to calculate this T. http://ttheory.typepad.com/files/280daysdata20100706.pdf

 

[coolhand]

Thanks for taking the time to look at this. I don't think anyone expects the market to play out by anyone's "projection". I'm okay with "close" though.

We'll just have to watch things play out and make adjustments as required.

After I listened to Laundry's Sunday post this morning http://www.ttheory.com/ I calculated out the end date for his "conservative T" on today's chart http://ttheory.typepad.com/files/srtvo20100709pdf.pdf and I get 8/17, not 8/6 as Don has. The left end of the T is at 4/23 where the AD line peaked (looks like Don has that right), then the centerpost is halfway between the AD lows on 6/7 and 7/6, which is June 21st. So with the left end at 5/3, and the centerpost at 6/21, use the far left Julian (?) date column to calculate that that is 40 days...then just count 40 trading days out from 6/21 to the end of the T, and that would be 11435 on the date column, which I think is 8/17 if I counted right. So if correct, the potential is there for this rally to last until mid-August, close to Laundry's other much larger T with an ending date of 8/26. I'm not convinced it will work out like that though. The market is on thin ice here and could keel over again as soon as 7/19 I think. A lot could depend on BP's success or failure in the gulf. A break above the 200dma and I'll believe the mid-August projection for a top, which is what I was expecting way back in January anyway (based not just on Laundry's stuff, but also Tim Wood).

Here's Laundry's latest data file, the last column is what's used to calculate this T. http://ttheory.typepad.com/files/280daysdata20100706.pdf

 

[coolhand]

Bank Swaps Show Reduced Stress-Test Fears as Bonds Rally: Credit Markets

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...test-fears-as-bonds-rally-credit-markets.html

 

[coolhand]

Gold-Rally Bets Drop Most Since April 2009 as Euro Climbs, CFTC Data Show

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...april-2009-as-euro-climbs-cftc-data-show.html

 

[coolhand]

States Can't Count on Federal Bailout, Obama Appointees Say

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...ral-bailout-money-bowles-tells-governors.html

 

[coolhand]

What to make of China's slowing imports?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-do-chinas-slowing-imports-mean-2010-07-11

 

[coolhand]

Here's one for you Bullitt...

Europe Fears, Volatility, And High-Frequency Trading Is Causing Mom & Pop To Hate Stocks


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704545004575353102793970916.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

 

[coolhand]

Japan Just Showed Why U.S. Democrats Will Be Doomed If They Try To Raise Taxes

http://www.businessinsider.com/japan-election-landslide-2010-7

 

[coolhand]

The Financial Con Of The Decade Explained So Simply Even A Congressman Will Get It

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fi...lained-so-simply-even-congressman-will-get-it

 

[coolhand]

Businesses step up criticism of Obama's agenda

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN099655520100711

 

[nnuut]

It seems to me that every job Obama does create cost the Tax Payers over $100,000 each, that is just plain STUPID!! Sorry I didn't mean to get too technical.:laugh:

 

[crws]

call me crazy, but I think the I Fund will prove less volatile.

 

[GUCHI]

crws
i hope your right. it does seem to be diverting or starting highter than it has in the past. i have been long with the I fund and have kept it for some time. I figure just keep buying at cheap prices and eventually it will go up and I can reap my reward.

 

[coolhand]

I know some would disagree with me, but a good smackdown today would get that bearishness elevated again, work off the current mildly overbought condition, and set the market up for another launch going into OPEX this Friday.

Gotta love this volatility.

 

[crws]

a few positive "going forward" forecasts thursday http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20100715.html

by financials and semiconductors would help that scenario.

 

[Birchtree]

Holding out for the latest from our friend Stickan if you see anything. TIA.

 

[coolhand]

a few positive "going forward" forecasts thursday http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20100715.html

by financials and semiconductors would help that scenario.

If the past 20 minutes of action are any indication, that "smackdown" may not last the day. :laugh:

 

[Frixxxx]

If the past 20 minutes of action are any indication, that "smackdown" may not last the day. :laugh:

Not the volatility you were expecting. Just some movin and shakin right now....

Flat earnings mean flat market......

Concur?

 

[JamesE]

Curious to see what everyone here thinks about this:

Market in a slow motion crash

http://www.minyanville.com/business...ustrial-average/7/12/2010/id/29120/from/yahoo

 

[coolhand]

Not the volatility you were expecting. Just some movin and shakin right now....

Flat earnings mean flat market......

Concur?

I've heard that too. It seems folks are all over the map on where we're headed in the next month or so. Not that that's anything new of course, but a flat market has been projected by some.