coolhand's Account Talk

[joylynn]

Good Morning to you Coolhand! I am just getting ready to crack my Economics book and wanted to know if I need to move everything from my I,C and Income fund and put it in the G. Do you think that would be a good move? I know you cannot tell me what to do though I am looking for validation. If there is an opportunity for the market to rise above the Dec 30th numbers I would consider staying in but if not I need to move today.

Joy Lynn

 

[coolhand]

Good Morning to you Coolhand! I am just getting ready to crack my Economics book and wanted to know if I need to move everything from my I,C and Income fund and put it in the G. Do you think that would be a good move? I know you cannot tell me what to do though I am looking for validation. If there is an opportunity for the market to rise above the Dec 30th numbers I would consider staying in but if not I need to move today.

Joy Lynn

If you are going to commit to learning how to time the markets then I'm comfortable telling you what I think. At this time it appears more downside is ahead and it could be fairly significant. I don't see us getting back to Dec 30th levels at all. Any bounce will probably evaporate fairly quickly too. I think a defensive posture is prudent.

Leave the bond fund alone. I think you're okay there.

 

[joylynn]

Do you mean the Income fund as the bond fund?

 

[coolhand]

Do you mean the Income fund as the bond fund?

The F fund. But I see you said "Income" fund. I'd leave that alone. It's not that risky.

 

[coolhand]

Nary a dip buyer in sight in this final of hour of trade. :worried:

 

[Nordic]

Nary a dip buyer in sight in this final of hour of trade. :worried:

Pretty ugly week if you were in. Have you had a chance to read up on Poolman's P3 scenario?

 

[coolhand]

Pretty ugly week if you were in. Have you had a chance to read up on Poolman's P3 scenario?

I scanned it, but I'm going to be taking a closer look this weekend.

 

[coolhand]

I'm hearing the UK upped their terrorism threat level to Severe today. FWIW

http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/counter-terrorism/current-threat-level/

 

[coolhand]

India on terror alert too.

http://www.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/world/2010/01/22/am.newton.india.air.terror.alert.cnn.html

 

[coolhand]

IBD issued a "Market in Correction" yesterday. No surprise. It was on a buy since November.

 

[coolhand]

I'm beginning to wonder if this latest sell-off was more a reaction to the terrorist chatter being monitored late this week than some of the other issues.

http://www.smh.com.au/world/britain-highly-likely-to-face-terrorist-attack-20100123-mro6.html

 

[airlift]

IBD issued a "Market in Correction" yesterday. No surprise. It was on a buy since November.

Coolhand,

We are already three days down in the correction. Just to understand how IBD works, what is their expectation when they issue these warnings? Thanks and take care.

 

[coolhand]

Coolhand,

We are already three days down in the correction. Just to understand how IBD works, what is their expectation when they issue these warnings? Thanks and take care.

I'm not a subscriber, but I think it generally means either buy or sell. Be in or be out. These signals tend to last a while. They go by how many distribution days occur in the major averages like the S&P, which means institutional selling is going on. You can follow it to some extent here...but it's not quite up-to-date. Close though.

http://sevensentinels.com/IBD.html

 

[coolhand]

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=115363

 

[Uptrend]

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=115363

IYB makes a good argument. However, the market could fall down a ways and then rally back up to around SPX 1100 and put in a lower high. Seems to me that would put in lower values and a negative divergence on the NYSI and NYHL. The market has fallen much faster than in 2003-04, and the NYSI needs a few days to catch up, as it has a slight delay.

Until we get a lower high first and then a break below the lower bounds of the trading channel in the SPX 1075 region, we cannot be 100% sure the uptrend is over. I expect we will see a lower high this week backtesting somewhere between 1107 and 1115. We need to be cautious on short positions until this develops a little further. On the other hand, the speed at which 5% was stripped off in 3 trading sessions is very concerning, and IMO tells us the uptrend is probably toast. Remember it took more than two months to go up and hours to fall. Looks like knee-jerk instability.

 

[nnuut]

Yes it's reasonable to think there may be a couple more down days next week, after that a bounce of some sort depending on the NEWS!!:worried:

 

[coolhand]

More on terror threat levels.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/jan/23/uk-terror-threat-raised-severe-alan-johnson

 

[coolhand]

Very interesting revelation.

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/after-hijack-threat-now-let-paragliders/570813/

 

[coolhand]

It looks like we're going to see a nice gap-up this morning. But is it going to be an intraday rally, or will it last longer? Trader's Talk sentiment poll shows more shorting than buying, but well away from being a fade on the bearish side. I think rallies will be sold. Any short term play with TSP continues to be high risk this week. Not that one shouldn't try to make a play, but one had better understand why they're pushing chips into the pot and have a plan to mitigate risk.

 

[coolhand]

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-st...fly-list-stopped-at-heathrow-115875-21990980/