coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

I can't figure out where that 401K thread is, so I'm posting this "tin foil" stuff here.

http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/will-the-feds-fund-deficits-with-401ks/

 

[nasa1974]

I can't figure out where that 401K thread is, so I'm posting this "tin foil" stuff here.

http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/will-the-feds-fund-deficits-with-401ks/

Can you feel the breeze of our founding father's rotating in their graves?

 

[coolhand]

Can you feel the breeze of our founding father's rotating in their graves?

I thought that was my exposed backside? :laugh:

 

[Bullitt]

Oh jeez. Now that Whiskey and Gunpowder is complaining about the 401K conspiracy, it's nothing to worry about. I used to read them, but I always had to sing that 'the sun would come up tomorrow' after I finished reading their essays.

 

[nasa1974]

I thought that was my exposed backside? :laugh:

LOL

 

[coolhand]

Here's my plan for the next few days. Look lower. Maybe 5% or so and then jump in. It's tricky timing with TSP, and I won't have a Seven Sentinels buy signal either (I got another sell signal yesterday), but the bounce will come too fast to react to and be over by the time I can move in if I wait for a green light. (Assuming a bounce here)

Monday's have been overwhelmingly bullish for months. I'm afraid that may be a hook for the bulls this time and that's what makes me cautious on the timing of catching the next fast rally. Mark Young thinks we rally by Tuesday (possibly sooner), but when do I enter the market? Maybe 50% Friday, and 50% Monday? I'm not sure yet, but that's probably a reasonable approach.

My objective is to capture at least 2% for the month by selling on a big reversal higher and be out and done until February. No homeruns here.

BTW, any "big" reversal higher could trigger another Seven Sentinels buy signal, so essentially I'll be trying to frontrun that signal. There is risk here, but I think it's a reasonable approach.

 

[Uptrend]

Here's my plan for the next few days.

Try this for a scenario. We have a head at SPX 1150 and a left shoulder top at 1100 and a trough at 1030. So the market retraces to 1030, the early November 09 low (which is also where the 200 ema is coming in) and then rallies back to 1100 to form the right shoulder. A downdraft to 1030 is a 10.4% off the 1150 high. If this scenario were to play out the time interval would probably be within the 1-2 week of February to hit the bottom. The upswing from 1030 to 1100 would be +6.7%.

 

[coolhand]

Try this for a scenario. We have a head at SPX 1150 and a left shoulder top at 1100 and a trough at 1030. So the market retraces to 1030, the early November 09 low (which is also where the 200 ema is coming in) and then rallies back to 1100 to form the right shoulder. A downdraft to 1030 is a 10.4% off the 1150 high. If this scenario were to play out the time interval would probably be within the 1-2 week of February to hit the bottom. The upswing from 1030 to 1100 would be +6.7%.

Nice analysis. Factor in that we have a little over one week until February and two new IFTs and maybe we can play the initial bounce higher next week and grab the second upswing in February. With our limited manueverability we can only hope to get a slice of any retrace higher, so I'll settle for whatever I can get.

1030 on the first wave down? Ouch. I'll take it if I can get it. :nuts:

 

[coolhand]

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=115236

 

[joylynn]

Dear Coolhand,

After you get in, when will you get out again?

Thanks a bunch!

Joy Lynn

 

[coolhand]

Dear Coolhand,

After you get in, when will you get out again?

Thanks a bunch!

Joy Lynn

We need to take this one day at a time right now. Something's changed and we're finally getting some serious selling pressure. First I need to pick my entry spot and I have not made a decision on that yet. Then once I'm in, I need to see how the market plays out. If I manage to get back in on an upswing, I'll have to gauge how long I'll stay. If the market is still moving in the extreme, I may pull the plug sooner rather than later.

But stay tuned for now. I'll be posting day to day what I'm going to do.

 

[J-Trader]

Watch the 50 day moving average. So far, it held nicely today on SPY. Good luck.

 

[joylynn]

Thanks so much Coolhand. I will certainly hang on your every word.

Joy Lynn

 

[coolhand]

Watch the 50 day moving average. So far, it held nicely today on SPY. Good luck.

It's only been tested...briefly so far. But there's volume coming into the market and so far it's to the downside. I think it'll be tested again before too much longer.

Looks like da boyz are running some stops.

 

[coolhand]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolo...ty-doesnt-switch-to-new-address-protocol.html

 

[coolhand]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aKJWAHOrr6eo

 

[coolhand]

As I write this, it looks like we're going to have a moderate gap down to start today's trading. If we start out that way, we'll have dropped below the 50dma on SPX. How the market responds after the first hour of trading will be key here.

 

[Uptrend]

There is a SPX 1107 pivot. This needs to hold right now if we are to get a backtest of the 1133 pivot as I expected. Otherwise 1085 is the next ledge.

 

[joylynn]

I am reading your posts Coolhand!

Joy Lynn

 

[coolhand]

I am reading your posts Coolhand!

Joy Lynn

Good morning Joy. I think you've been reading Uptrend's thread so you probably already know what I'm thinking. But here's where I'm at right now.

No trade today. The action is too volatile this morning and the undercurrents are bearish. I need to see how today plays out and how Monday shapes up.

I think the Intermediate Term just turned down so rallies will probably be sold.