coolhand's Account Talk

[grandma]

CH,
The consumer seems to be coming through. I think we'll have the Christmas rally and that the SS is delivering the goods. I hope so anyway!

well - I hope we aren't depending on me to help buy our way out of this !!
of course - I wouldn't be adverse to using another's finances -
:notrustrovided I Got Written in Blood Authorization first !!!
-I wouldn't want to find myself written up in Snopes!!
I can take the heat, tho, should we all decide that my non-spending/charging is the cause of this sideways/wishywashy market.
It has to be a 100% vote, :laugh: and I guess you know where my vote would be !!!

 

[coolhand]

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/joyce-warns-of-us-armageddon-20091211-kmlu.html

 

[coolhand]

While the chart may be accurate, the title of this article is way off base and misleading. One posted response to this article came much closer to the truth.

http://www.businessinsider.com/char...remains-terrified-of-the-stock-market-2009-12

"I wouldn't say terrified... How about distrustful! How about the complete realization that our stock market today is a complete sham, a Ponzi, a rigged casino and a tool of the bloodsucking Vampire Squid. Bring back honesty in accounting, regulation, disclosure and transparency then perhaps honest hard working Americans will "Invest" some of their hard working dollars into the Capital Markets. Until such a time it's no way Jose."

 

[Birchtree]

I think the title is right on the mark - just as it should happen in the classic sense. There will be plenty of time for the money to shift in about three years from now - give us a real blow off top. Until then keep the white tails away in fear.

 

[alevin]

While the chart may be accurate, the title of this article is way off base and misleading. One posted response to this article came much closer to the truth.

http://www.businessinsider.com/char...remains-terrified-of-the-stock-market-2009-12

"I wouldn't say terrified...how about distrustful. How about the complete realization that our stock market today is a complete sham, a Ponzi, a rigged casino and a tool of the bloodsucking Vampire Squid. Bring back honesty in accounting, regulation, disclosure and transparency then perhaps honest hard working Americans will "Invest" some of their hard working dollars into the Capital Markets. Until such a time it's no way Jose."

this would describe me, No FEAR, just loathing and distrust.
SS some are saying hit the wall this year or next, instead of 2017 (my absolute earliest retirement date) like they've been saying-I'm running my retirement calculations assuming no SS for me. Will there be enough in TSP/FERS for me to comfortably retire at age 60 w/30 based on current calculations-including lack of economic recovery and potential life expectancy of 100 (gramma's due to turn 104 in March)? No, I don't think will be able to retire at 60. would there be enough in FERS/TSP to survive if I work til 64-66? maybe, maybe not.

I'm going to run TSP contribution vs. taxes/takehome pay calcs this week to figure out how high I can push the TSP contribs this next year and still leave enough takehome for Roth and living expenses and emergency cushion. Every bit of savings will help, I thnk.

Only 7+ years left til 60/30, lots to get done btw now and then before can decide to pull the plug then or not. Sorry for the hijack, CH.

 

[coolhand]

this would describe me, No FEAR, just loathing and distrust.

That's how most folks feel.

 

[coolhand]

Trader's Talk is showing 50% bulls and 30% bears. That's borderline fade territory. A few more traders may vote before the open tomorrow, but I doubt it'll change the numbers too much.

My sentiment view is simple. Too many bulls in aggregate generally spells weakness. That does not mean the weakness has to be ugly. It just means it needs to be enough to shift the sentiment. It can happen quickly too.

No correction calls here. The charts don't support it. Any weakness should be relatively brief and followed by a move higher. This is assuming some bulls get shaken out of their positions.

As always, the SS has the final say.

 

[coolhand]

Last night I'd mentioned in my blog that Trader's Talk was over 70% bullish on light participation, but that the ratio would probably moderate by the open. It has. It is not showing 46% bulls to 29% bears. This is bullish for today's trading. Maybe we close above 1119 on the S&P today?

 

[coolhand]

The bulls have really backed off on Trader's Talk this morning. But the board has not gotten more bearish either. It's about 28% bulls and 28% bears with lots of flat and neutral votes. They're getting nervous.

I'm still looking for a breakout to new highs. If we get a good rally going, I expect to be a seller. I'm thinking it will happen this week. Perhaps today. But on a day when the FOMC annoucement is released, it's a tricky bet for us.

Still, we're mid-way through the month and I'd just assume try and lock in some profit and wait for another opportunity next month.

 

[coolhand]

http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...me=Investor&ArticleId=NS20091216085930PageOne

 

[XL-entLady]

...I'm still looking for a breakout to new highs. If we get a good rally going, I expect to be a seller. I'm thinking it will happen this week. Perhaps today. But on a day when the FOMC annoucement is released, it's a tricky bet for us.

Still, we're mid-way through the month and I'd just assume try and lock in some profit and wait for another opportunity next month.

So have you given up on a Santa rally this year, CH? I was hoping for a rally to the end of the year and then to get out of the market in January. Sounds like I may be too optimistic, huh.

Your crystal ball is usually in better shape than mine is. :cheesy:

Lady

 

[coolhand]

So have you given up on a Santa rally this year, CH? I was hoping for a rally to the end of the year and then to get out of the market in January. Sounds like I may be too optimistic, huh.

Your crystal ball is usually in better shape than mine is. :cheesy:

Lady

Too many bulls to begin the month. We're inching higher, but things can get dicey quick after OPEX. I've had a tough time this year locking in gains given the volatility we've seen over the months. I've learned that in this kind of environment the SS will still lead me to gains, but it's up to me to hold on to them.

I'm looking for some significant weakness soon. Perhaps beginning Friday, or maybe early next week. Another rally may ensue after we get the weakness, but I'm not fond of holding through the volatility. Plus, if we do get that weakness, a SSSS may be in the cards. But by then I've lost my gains.

So I guess you could say I'm looking to front-run a SSSS, but this one's more tricky than the others.

So far, today looks like a good day to lighten up. But I'm not really bearish until Friday.

 

[coolhand]

Out. 100% G. A lot of folks moved into stocks this week, and we were already bullish to begin with. Trader's Talk got very neutral today after high bullishness earlier on. Is this a tell? It could be.

The SS has been hugging it's EMAs, which means we could see a continued buy or a sell depending on market action. I expected to see higher highs before any weakness, and today may give us that. Of course, I'm betting the FOMC announcement doesn't spring any surprises on the market here, and it shouldn't. If it stays status quo, then the market should hold or add to gains here as the shorts cover.

We could have a continuation rally tomorrow. I'm not bearish just yet. But beginning Friday I'm thinking risk is getting too high. TSP flexiblity is low, so I'm taking advantage of the rally today to do my selling. Good luck everyone.

 

[airlift]

Good luck to you too! I went 90G, but left 10C perhaps until Friday.

 

[coolhand]

Good luck to you too! I went 90G, but left 10C perhaps until Friday.

For all the talk about a SC rally, it feels more like topping action to me. The market is continuing to keep everyone guessing which way it's going to break.

 

[dannyboy]

Out. 100% G.
We could have a continuation rally tomorrow. I'm not bearish just yet. But beginning Friday I'm thinking risk is getting too high. TSP flexiblity is low, so I'm taking advantage of the rally today to do my selling. Good luck everyone.

:notrust: 100% G, is some pretty strong words, I'd disreguard that except it came from Cool. I got 1 IFT left and now I got to say to myself,
"You got 8 trading days left this year?
Last month it was close to this same thing,
Do you feel lucky?
I'm not bearish just yet. Good luck everyone.
DB

 

[Birchtree]

You can continue to grow your account alot in eight days. Watch the NYSE.

 

[nnuut]

I'm still waiting for SANTA!!:laugh:

 

[coolhand]

:notrust: 100% G, is some pretty strong words, I'd disreguard that except it came from Cool. I got 1 IFT left and now I got to say to myself,
"You got 8 trading days left this year?
Last month it was close to this same thing,
Do you feel lucky?
I'm not bearish just yet. Good luck everyone.
DB

I've ended the year on a high note, but more importantly I think this rally is taking too long and that bullishness is probably too high to push us much further. In the 2 weeks since I got the SSBS, there has not been a convincing breakout. By the same token there has also not been a breakdown either. However, the longer we trade sideways at the top of the channel, the more likely a break to the downside becomes. Not a prediction, just an observation.

But also keep in mind, I'm only trading for the next 2 weeks. And it's almost all on a low volume holiday period. I wouldn't read too much into that.

 

[Bullitt]

Trader's Talk got very neutral today after high bullishness earlier on.

I'm surprised the majority on that site could ever be bullish. Every time I read TT, it's bearish.

"Shorted again today"
"Doubled down on shorts today"
"Charts indicate crash"
"Heavy resistance ahead"
"Market failure is imminent after 50% retracement"

Bulls are few and far between on that site- even before the onset of one of the biggest rallies in history.