ContrarianJeff's Account Talk

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Welcome CJ...G was a good place to start out yesterday...you show promise..oh and welcome to the Board..

FS
 
Thanks! I'm looking forward to using the tracker. (But I can't say that I'm looking forward to having the TSP veterans put a whoopin' on this rookie!)
 
All you have to do is remember the old song by Del Shannon - "Runnining Scared" no place to go...and do just the opposite of our leaders. GL.
 
Welcome to the board. The board and it's members make it easy to learn the ways of the force(market). Sit back and learn but remember all IFT's are up to you.
 
Welcome Jeff. Keep coming back. There a lot of smart people on this board. Even if they are government employees. ;)
 
Welcome Jeff, the tracker is a great tool, best of luck!
Norman
 
Moving from 100% G-fund to 100% C-fund as of COB 12-14. I think the market is a little oversold and due for a bounce over the next few days. The drop this week has helped get rid of talk about "Dow 20,000."
 
Moving from 100% C-fund to 100% G-fund as of COB today, 12-21-07. I don't like gap ups on option expiration days. Plus, banks and financials have been in the tank despite tech's ride up. I think the banks may pull us down another leg lower.
 
I'm moving from 100% G to 100% S as of COB today--12/31/07. It looks like we are a little oversold, and I think the small-caps are overdue for a bounce. Seasonality is also a plus, and sentiment is in the neutral to slightly pessimistic range. A down day today would set us up nicely for the rest of the week.
 
Moving from 100% S to 50% S and 50% I. I've lost so much this year with the S fund, I'd like to spread the losses around some and see if I can lose even more with the I fund! :D I am an idiot, and I have totally misread this market. But I know as soon as I go to cash, the market will rebound and I will be even worse shape than if I had just stayed in stocks.
 
It's not so much misreading the market...it's that the TSP is a day behind the curve...not like real time trading...trust me, it's killing me too. I went 25% C, 35% S and 40% I...may even switch it to 20, 30 and 50...not sure yet.

ContrarianJeff said:
Moving from 100% S to 50% S and 50% I. I've lost so much this year with the S fund, I'd like to spread the losses around some and see if I can lose even more with the I fund! :D I am an idiot, and I have totally misread this market. But I know as soon as I go to cash, the market will rebound and I will be even worse shape than if I had just stayed in stocks.
Click to expand...
 
Moving from 50% I and 50% S to 100% G. The market looks a little overbought and I think we may retest the lows of Jan. 22--around S&P 1300. Having said that, I am very unsure about this call and it would not surprise me if we continued heading higher. I missed the boat big-time in January, but I'm trying to be consistent and stick with my indicators.
 
Moving from 100% G to 100% S. I may be early, but we're getting close to the S&P 1300 level where I thought we would bounce. I've been happy being out of this market this week, but I'm hoping we may soon see a multi-week rise. My goal this year is to match or beat the Sentiment Survey, and I'm up a little now. So we'll see.
 
Moving from 100% S to 100% G as of COB today. I'm still bullish on this market, but I think we may pull back slightly over the next few days. I think we're a little overbought, and post-Bernanke testimony markets have been less than stellar for a few days. What I'd love to see is 2 or 3 days of gentle consolidation. That would set us up nicely for a continued move higher. The bond market looks like it has topped out for a while.
 
Moving from 100% G to 50% S and 50% I as of COB today. The markets are down a few percentage points since my move to cash last week. Hoping for rebound over the next few days.
 
Moving from 50%-S/50%-I to 100%-I as of COB 3/24. I think the US markets are in for a brief pause, but the I-fund is due for a nice bounce.
 
Moving from 100% I to 100% G. I think markets will pull back some before resuming their climb. Looks like all indexes are approaching some pretty heavy resistance.
 
Based on sentiment studies, I have continued to be bullish on the markets. (I've also been fairly successful at getting out at the right times.) Three things concern the bull in me right now: 1) extremely low volume on this ride up from the March lows: 2) AAII sentiment is incredibly high (the number of bearish investors is at a point that has often immediately preceded a drop); and 3) the VIX is dropping into an area that has often marked intermediate highs for the indexes (this shows a great deal of complacency).

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p33737730460

Any thoughts?
 
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